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What will happen to Mahmud Vahidnia, who dared to criticise Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to his face?

Settled as He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen

We've read no reports of anything happening...

Background:

Background: He may be the bravest student in Iran or an unwitting stooge of the Islamic regime - or both. Either way, Mahmoud Vahidnia has gained instant fame after breaking a taboo by criticising the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to his face.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/06/iran-student-criticises-ayatollah-khamenei
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gA30yThqLX6xY9fjOjKxU6E-oWowD9BPL8V80

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Settles on first to happen.

 
Forecast history %
He will be detained for any reason
1%
He will be expelled from or leave university
1%
He will be expelled from or leave the country
4%
He will be victim of any bodily assault
1%
He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen
93%
Settled as He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen on Mon 4th Jan 8:02am PST

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 4th Jan 8:02am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: He will be detained for any reason: 20%, He will be expelled from or leave university: 15%, He will be expelled from or leave the country: 5%, He will be victim of any bodily assault: 5%, He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen: 55%

Action history:

Created Mon 9th Nov 2009 1:47pm PST by kruijs[Power User]
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 4th Jan 7:53am PST by spyder: No reports of any of these things occurring. Settle as "He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen"
Settled as 'He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen' Mon 4th Jan 8:02am PST by sqlman[Admin]: We've read no reports of anything happening...

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 4th Jan 8:02am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (29)

11 weeks ago
hindsight predicted He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen (H$100 at 84%)
12 weeks ago
guruzilla predicted He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen (H$20 at 80%)
13 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen (H$1,000 at 78%)
13 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted He'll be fine, nothing of these events happen (H$1,000 at 73%)
16 weeks ago
shellyvalentine66 predicted He will be detained for any reason (H$50 at 11%)

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