Created Mon 9th Nov 2009 5:15pm PST by 
photochico
photochico 
Will hubdub create a way to 'short' an option in a multi-choice question by the end of 2010?
Background: It's been discussed before, but will hubdub make it available?
Instead of picking all but the answer you believe will be incorrect, you would be able to short one answer.
Example:
DJIA will close by the end of 2009:
A. at or below 6,000 (15%)
B. between 6,000 and 7,000 (15%)
C. between 7,000 and 8,000 (15%)
D. between 8,000 and 9,000 (20%)
E. between 9,000 and 10,000 (20%)
F. over 10,000 (15%)
If you are fairly certain the DOW will end the year over 6,000, you could short answer A. This wager would have the same effect as spreading your wager amount of all the other answers, but take less time and effort. According to the percentages, you would be wagering at an 85% level (100%-15%).
Or as spyder said:
In practice, this would be easy to implement: just allow negative votes which result in negative payouts
So, for example, if you bet "-$100" on some option and that option loses, you lose -$100, which means that you gain $100.
Either way will result in a 'yes.'
Instead of picking all but the answer you believe will be incorrect, you would be able to short one answer.
Example:
DJIA will close by the end of 2009:
A. at or below 6,000 (15%)
B. between 6,000 and 7,000 (15%)
C. between 7,000 and 8,000 (15%)
D. between 8,000 and 9,000 (20%)
E. between 9,000 and 10,000 (20%)
F. over 10,000 (15%)
If you are fairly certain the DOW will end the year over 6,000, you could short answer A. This wager would have the same effect as spreading your wager amount of all the other answers, but take less time and effort. According to the percentages, you would be wagering at an 85% level (100%-15%).
Or as spyder said:
In practice, this would be easy to implement: just allow negative votes which result in negative payouts
So, for example, if you bet "-$100" on some option and that option loses, you lose -$100, which means that you gain $100.
Either way will result in a 'yes.'
Settlement details:As reported by hubdub.
Forecast history %
| Yes |
| ||||
| No |
|
Question suspends in 42 weeks
- Activity: H$7,013 |
- Predictions: 21 |
Comments: 1
Suspend date: Wed 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (42 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%
Action history:
Created Mon 9th Nov 2009 5:15pm PST by photochico
photochico
Changed Question text Tue 10th Nov 2009 3:19am PST by 
nigeleccles![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: ... question by the end of 20092010?
nigeleccles: ... question by the end of
Changed Description Tue 10th Nov 2009 3:19am PST by nigeleccles: show details
nigeleccles: show details ... will hubdub make it available? <?<br/> <br/> Instead of picking ... able to short one answer. <.<br/> <br/> Example: <:<br/> DJIA will close by the end of 2009: <:<br/> A. at or below 6,000 (15%) <%)<br/> B. between 6,000 ... ,000 and 8,000 (15%) <%)<br/> D. between 8,000 and 9,000 (20%) <%)<br/> E. between 9,000 and 10,000 (20%) <%)<br/> F. over 10,000 (15%) <%)<br/> <br/> If you are ... an 85% level (100%-15%). <%).<br/> <br/> Or as spyder ... which result in negative payouts <<br/> So, for example, if ... means that you gain $100. <.<br/> <br/> Either way will
Suspend date: Wed 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (42 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (21)
frogchop
predicted No (H$1,000 at 80%)
mikeo7b3
predicted No (H$200 at 80%)
toad
predicted No (H$50 at 80%)
tuff_sledding![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$800 at 80%)
pavitraComments (1)
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http://www.hubdub.com/m23421/Will_hubdub_introduce_short_positions_in_2008
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