Will Mahmoud Abbas run in January's Palestinian elections?

Settled as There will be no elections betfore settlement date

There were no elections before the settlement date.

Background:

Background: Elections are planned in the Palestinian Authority in January 24, 2010, and until recently it was obvious that Mahmoud Abbas, the current president, will run for office again. However, lately he has been quoted as saying he will not run for re-elections, blaming both Israel and the Hammas (which controls Gaza) for not letting him perform his job. There have also been talks about postponing the elections or cancelling them altogether. Will the elections take place as planned? Will Mahmoud Abbas run for office?

Settlement details:This question will only be settled after the presidential elections have already taken place (with Mahmoud Abbas a candidate, or not), or on the (fixed) settlement date, whichever comes first. The outcome of the elections does not matter - just the candidates.

Forecast history %

Mahmoud Abbas will be a presidential candidate

Mahmoud Abbas will not be a presidential candidate

There will be no elections betfore settlement date

99%

Settled as There will be no elections betfore settlement date on Tue 16th Mar 6:37am PST

Activity: H$39,807
Predictions: 44
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Sun 28th Feb 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 16th Mar 6:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 28th Feb 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Mahmoud Abbas will be a presidential candidate: 33%, Mahmoud Abbas will not be a presidential candidate: 33%, There will be no elections betfore settlement date: 34%

Action history:

Created Mon 9th Nov 2009 11:48pm PST by

nyharel Level 14, Prophet (H$115,997)

Suspended Sun 28th Feb 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Tue 9th Mar 10:46pm PST by

nyharel Level 14, Prophet (H$115,997)

: Date has passed, no elections

Settled as 'There will be no elections betfore settlement date' Tue 16th Mar 6:37am PST by