Created Wed 11th Nov 2009 4:16pm PST by

HSX:Will "Precious" earn at least 33m in the dom box office during first 6 weeks?

Settled as Yes

Background: The next limited movie that is very successful: Precious - Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire made 2,3m in 5 days in 18 theaters !

All HSX questions use the estimate of future movies: http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming and the background from boxoffice mojo. The timing is based on the movie going wide on Nov. 20th.

PRECIOUS:
BASED ON THE NOVEL "PUSH" BY SAPPHIREWide Release Date: 11/06/09 limited - 11/20/09 (???) wide
Final Date: 12/17/09
Distributor: Lionsgate
Genre: Drama
Running Time: 1 hrs. 49 min.
MPAA Rating: R
Propduction Budget: $10 million
Theaters: 18 (this weekend limited expansion)
Opening Weekend: $1,872,458
(#12 rank, 18 theaters, $104,025 average)

Settlement details:http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=preciouspush.htm

Forecast history %

Yes

99%

Settled as Yes on Wed 2nd Dec 2009 3:05pm PST

Activity: H$133,846
Predictions: 30
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Sat 12th Dec 2009 3:05pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 2nd Dec 2009 3:05pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 11th Nov 2009 4:16pm PST by

hfl13

Settlement requested Wed 2nd Dec 2009 2:03pm PST by

hfl13

: $33,270,307 / 26

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-12-01&p=.htm

Settled as 'Yes' Wed 2nd Dec 2009 3:05pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

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Suspend date: Sat 12th Dec 2009 3:05pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 2nd Dec 2009 3:05pm PST details

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Predictions (30)

15 weeks ago

conservatives_suck Level 8, Super-Pro (H$6,521)

predicted No (H$20 at 1%)

17 weeks ago

monsti88 Level 12, Guru (H$29,047)

predicted No (H$50 at 2%)

17 weeks ago

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$76,188)

predicted No (H$133 at 1%)

18 weeks ago

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$76,188)

predicted No (H$200 at 37%)

Comments (2)

hfl13

I choose 6 weeks because my guess for wide release was after two weeks. HSX values are for 4 weeks in wide release and 12 weeks in limited release. PA showed that the value used the full 4 wide weeks after that movie had grown from limited to wide realease = that movie had 8(?) weeks in the HSX value.

posted 18 weeks ago

hfl13

How to destroy a limited release movies chances.

Paramount was bad enough with Paranormal Activities chances with first only increasing from 160 to 760(4th) to 1945(5th) to 2404 theaters. This gave PA only place 3 against WTWTA and Law abiding Citizen and a lucky #1 in week 5 against a failing SAW VI. Without the SAW failure the movie would not have made 100m. With more theaters at least #2 was possible in week 4 and maybe even #1 for two weekends.

Now Paramounts numbers seem pretty decent compared to Liongates Precious. Going from 174 to 629 to 663 this week is unbelieveble stupid. The movie made 5,9m and 10,9m weekends and they give 34 more theaters for the Thanksgiving weekend ? Their serious aim seems to be "Don´t let the movie make more than 50m !" The movie fights well against all the 2000+ and 3000+ competition but without additional theaters much potential is wasted.

Both movies showed with 160 theaters 7,9m #4 (PA) and 176 theaters 5,9m #3 (Precious) their potential. The studios should give them 2000 fastest because a medium success was guaranteed here instead of gambling with new risky wide releases or movies that were past their peek. Precious has to fight three new wide realeases and was only #6 last weekend. IMO Precious could easylhave been easily a 80m movie.

It looks like limited release is no good way for a movie because even with early successes the movies are not given the appopriate theaters.

posted 16 weeks ago