When will we see the next 300 point one-day fall or rise in the Hang Seng index?

Settled as Nov 23 to Nov 27, 2009

First day for the question and settlement already...setting suspension at 4:15 PM Hong Kong time

Background:

Background: The Hang Seng, like most indexes in the developing world is much more volatile than the Dow. The overwhelming majority seem to feel that there will not be a 500, much less a 750 point drop before the end of the year, so let's see if we can get a bit more action here on a 300 point swing.
This one is simple. When will there be a 300 or greater one-day move in the Hang Seng index?

Could be very soon - or not. Volatility is a fact of life, but anything can happen. Starting odds are my best estimate, based o recent history - I hope nobody thinks they are wildly off base.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Nov 23 to Nov 27, 2009

23%

Nov 30 to Dec 4

23%

Dec 7 to Dec 11

15%

Dec 14 to Dec 18

14%

Dec 21 to Dec 25

Dec 28 to Dec 31

Jan 2 or beyond

13%

Settled as Nov 23 to Nov 27, 2009 on Mon 23rd Nov 2009 5:14am PST

Activity: H$25,029
Predictions: 22
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Tue 15th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 23rd Nov 2009 5:14am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 22nd Nov 2009 12:15pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Nov 23 to Nov 27, 2009: 20%, Nov 30 to Dec 4: 20%, Dec 7 to Dec 11: 18%, Dec 14 to Dec 18: 14%, Dec 21 to Dec 25: 10%, Dec 28 to Dec 31: 8%, Jan 2 or beyond: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 21st Nov 2009 10:38am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Suspended Mon 23rd Nov 2009 12:57am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Mon 23rd Nov 2009 12:57am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: well, what do you know. shot up like a rocket in late trading and closed up over 300 points (market suspended)

Settled as 'Nov 23 to Nov 27, 2009' Mon 23rd Nov 2009 5:14am PST by