Created Tue 24th Nov 2009 12:10pm PST by

kelly

DJIA - What will be the dollar (point) difference between open and close November 25, 2009?

Settled as 0 - 50.00

DJIA closed about 30 points highe, up 30.69 from yesterday and 31.40 fron this morning

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

0 - 50.00

88%

50.01 - 100.00

10%

100.01 - 150.00

150.01 - 200.00

200.01 - 250.00

250.01 - 300.00

300.01 - 350.00

350.01 - 400.00

400.01 - 450.00

450.01 - and greater

Settled as 0 - 50.00 on Wed 25th Nov 2009 5:27pm PST

Activity: H$26,574
Predictions: 70
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Wed 25th Nov 2009 12:15pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 25th Nov 2009 5:27pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 25th Nov 2009 12:15pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0 - 50.00: 21%, 50.01 - 100.00 : 21%, 100.01 - 150.00: 20%, 150.01 - 200.00: 12%, 200.01 - 250.00: 12%, 250.01 - 300.00: 8%, 300.01 - 350.00: 2%, 350.01 - 400.00: 2%, 400.01 - 450.00: 1%, 450.01 - and greater: 1%

Action history:

Created Tue 24th Nov 2009 12:10pm PST by

kelly

Suspended Wed 25th Nov 2009 12:15pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as '0 - 50.00' Wed 25th Nov 2009 5:27pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: DJIA closed about 30 points highe, up 30.69 from yesterday and 31.40 fron this morning

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Predictions (70)

16 weeks ago

curly

predicted 0 - 50.00 (H$2,500 at 82%)

16 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 50.01 - 100.00 (H$100 at 12%)

16 weeks ago

curly

predicted 0 - 50.00 (H$2,500 at 73%)

16 weeks ago

curly

predicted 50.01 - 100.00 (H$500 at 19%)

16 weeks ago

booty

predicted 50.01 - 100.00 (H$379 at 40%)

Comments (5)

tuff_sledding [Power User]

For many months, the starting odds on this question have been unrealistic. Volatility has been much less than last year, recent evidence does not support the odds of 0-50,50-100 and 100-150 to be identical. Invariably, there is a large bet on 0-50 soon after the question is posted. This needs to change.

posted 16 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$731,119)

tuff - good point. i don't play many questions in the Business cat, but this one is easy pickings. if memory serves me right they adjusted the odds doing the big fall. (my memory is as long as my elbow) so i could be confused. with this being an inplay question surely they could set the first 2 options a bit higher, till the dow starts having bigger moves. just my humble opinon as a watcher, not a player on this question.

posted 16 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Yep...you guys seem to be right...we should probably see about readjusting the options and odds on this one...calmer times in the markets have been the norm lately, and perhaps a top amount of 300 or more should be instated...I'll make the suggestion to the creator

posted 16 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

ATTENTION Question Creators:

Not only will the US markets be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, but the exchanges will be closing early on Friday, at 1 PM EST.

So please adjust your question appropriately....Happy Holidays ! ! !

posted 16 weeks ago

kelly

This question will have new percentages and lower upper limit effective November 30th. Thanks.

posted 16 weeks ago