Created Fri 8th Jan 1:17pm PST by

tlwinslow

Will Pakistan and India go to war by Jan. 1, 2013?

Background: The 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan drove al-Qaida into Pakistan and split the Taliban, who are both trying to destabilize Pakistan. The Taliban was behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and India has been thinking of retaliating. Meanwhile the U.S. has increased troops in Afghanistan, and started drone attacks in Pakistan, and might invade Pakistan with or without help from India to stabilize the country and seize the nukes, perhaps on the pretext of chasing al-Qaida, or India might see its chance and invade on its own. Either way, Pakistan is getting nervous, anti-American sentiment is rising, and they might attack India first. The Taliban was originally nurtured by Pakistan as a weapon against India, call them a wild card.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

23%

77%

Question suspends in 2 years

Activity: H$1,250
Predictions: 4
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Wed 2nd Jan 2013 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Fri 8th Jan 1:17pm PST by

tlwinslow

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Suspend date: Wed 2nd Jan 2013 11:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

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Predictions (4)

1 week ago

surfinserver Level 1, Newbie (H$1,004)

predicted No (H$100 at 76%)

1 week ago

susanblyton Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,181)

predicted No (H$100 at 76%)

3 weeks ago

eremgumas Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,284)

predicted No (H$50 at 76%)

10 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

predicted No (H$1,000 at 76%)

Comments (3)

thecrazycanuck Level 13, Psychic (H$60,207)

Define "go to war", is it a declaration of war, is a border clash enough?

posted 10 weeks ago

tlwinslow

A touchy point. A war means an invasion and state of war, not just a border clash. The media has to call it a war.

posted 10 weeks ago

eremgumas Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,284)

Yeah, this is important, because I think the whole game between India and Pak is that Pak's aggressiveness is done by proxy.I'll say "no" if only because I don't think that any of the conflict will be a full war.

posted 3 weeks ago