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Will Google leave China before July 4?

Background: A New Approach to China
David Drummond, SVP, Corporate Development and Chief Legal Officer

These attacks and the surveillance they have uncovered--combined with the attempts over the past year to further limit free speech on the web--have led us to conclude that we should review the feasibility of our business operations in China. We have decided we are no longer willing to continue censoring our results on Google.cn, and so over the next few weeks we will be discussing with the Chinese government the basis on which we could operate an unfiltered search engine within the law, if at all. We recognize that this may well mean having to shut down Google.cn, and potentially our offices in China.

The decision to review our business operations in China has been incredibly hard, and we know that it will have potentially far-reaching consequences. We want to make clear that this move was driven by our executives in the United States, without the knowledge or involvement of our employees in China who have worked incredibly hard to make Google.cn the success it is today. We are committed to working responsibly to resolve the very difficult issues raised.

http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/new-approach-to-china.html

Settlement details:Market settles as YES if Google.cn is offline on July 4, 2010 or if Google decides to leave its offices in China before July 4, 2010 -- as reported by a major mainstream news sources.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
25%
No
75%
Question suspends in 15 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 3rd Jul 11:59pm PST (15 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 12th Jan 3:45pm PST by lola

Suspend date: Sat 3rd Jul 11:59pm PST (15 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (153)

1 day ago
dontsellfakes predicted No (H$500 at 73%)
1 day ago
maartenkaas predicted No (H$250 at 72%)
1 day ago
clevercog predicted Yes (H$50 at 28%)
1 day ago
tomrcraver predicted Yes (H$2,000 at 24%)
1 day ago
badwolf predicted Yes (H$50 at 25%)

Comments (16)

I think Google will put the almighty dollar before human rights, like the rest of the US companies that deal with China.
posted 8 weeks ago
  2 koester
I think this has nothing to do with human rights.
posted 8 weeks ago
Koester - Defend your response!
posted 8 weeks ago
So Google has made another move in this game:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10436821-94.html

China has in turn publicly indicated that it has no plan to be flexible with Google.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100119/ap_on_hi_te/as_china_google
posted 8 weeks ago
I think Google is going about it wrong. Their main search screen in China should be enthusiastic about censoring in China - VERY enthusiastic...
"Google: We censor what you can read, so You don't have to censor what you think!"
"Today's censored topics: Human Rights, Corruption, Waste. You didn't really want to know anyway, did you?"
"Nope - that thing we can't talk about did NOT happen - because surely if it had happened, we'd let you know, wouldn't we?"
"Just to balance things out, today we've also censored the following inoffensive stuff: lolcats, all weather reports, pictures of small children (fully clothed)"
"No news about Tibet was worth censoring today...so you're not missing anything! Carry on!"
posted 7 weeks ago
@tomrcraver:

LO* Tha* wa* prett* funn*!
posted 7 weeks ago
Well, I think Google has rationalized staying in and engaged with China. Maybe they've decided that they can't prove the govt was behind the attacks, and figure it's better to keep the issue alive and the pressure on. In any case, Sergey Brin is saying "one or two years" to settle the issue with China, and I see no way they could have any leverage over China if they left. So I've switched from the long-shot "leave by July 4" to "No"...

http://mashable.com/2010/02/13/google-sergey-brin-ted-china/ (Feb 13th)
posted 4 weeks ago
  9 lola
China Warns Google Again After C.E.O.’s Remarks
March 12, 2010 | New York Times

BEIJING — One of China’s top Internet regulators warned bluntly on Friday that any move by Google to stop censoring its Chinese search engine would be “irresponsible” and would draw a response from the Beijing government. The statement by Li Yizhong, China’s minister of industry and information technology, followed a statement on Wednesday by Google’s chief executive officer, Eric Schmidt, that “something will happen soon” in the two-month standoff over Internet censorship between his firm and the Chinese government.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/13/world/asia/13china.html
posted 5 days ago
Google to shut China search engine

By Richard Waters in San Francisco and Kathrin Hille in Beijing
Published: March 12 2010 20:11 | Last updated: March 13 2010 02:16

Google has drawn up detailed plans for the closure of its Chinese search engine and is now “99.9 per cent” certain to go ahead as talks over censorship with the Chinese authorities have reached an apparent impasse, according to a person familiar with the company’s thinking.

more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/dd69e680-2e06-11df-b85c-00144feabdc0.html


So close!
posted 4 days ago
  11 zvassil
Question about settlement
What happens if google office stays open, but google.cn is offline sometime before July 4th, and back online on the date?
posted 4 days ago
  12 badwolf
@maartenkaas

This news story is only a day older then yours, but it says negations are still ongoing.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100311/tc_afp/chinausitmediarightsinternetgoogle
posted 4 days ago
  13 lola
@zvassil -- July 4th is the trigger date for settlement as YES if google.cn is offline. This market can settle as YES BEFORE JULY 4 only if Google severs its physical presence in China (by leaving their offices).

Settlement details: Market settles as YES if Google.cn is offline on July 4, 2010 or if Google decides to leave its offices in China before July 4, 2010 -- as reported by a major mainstream news sources.
posted 4 days ago
  14 zvassil
Thank you, lola. The settlement details are pretty clear but not very consistent IMHO, so I needed the confirmation.
posted 4 days ago
@badwolf
I know! So close!
posted 3 days ago
  16 tomrcraver
Still, if the article is accurate, it sounds like Google.cn will shut down, and so would probably still be shut down on July 4th.
posted 1 day ago

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