Created Mon 8th Feb 11:10pm PST by

Will the Tea Party elect 20 candidates in the November 2010 election?

Voided

Market voided. This market has no clear settlement guidelines, since there is no official designation to the Tea Party.

Background:

Background: Source: Christian Science Monitor http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/0205/New-Tea-Party-PAC-Can-it-raise-10-million-for-midterm-revolt

"Mark Skoda, a talk radio host who helped organize the National Tea Party Convention speaks during a news conference in Nashville, Friday. Skoda announced the creation of the Ensuring Liberty Corp., and an affiliated political action committee aimed at electing up to 20 candidates this fall."

So, the question is: Will the Tea Party / Ensuring Liberty Corp. succeed in electing 20 candidates in November? 20 or more won elections settles as a "Yes" and 19 or fewer settles as a "No".

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

40%

60%

Voided Sat 13th Feb 11:43am PST

Activity: H$15,344
Predictions: 11
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Mon 1st Nov 5pm PST (32 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 8th Feb 11:10pm PST by

znmeb

Voided Sat 13th Feb 11:43am PST by

destry [Admin]

: Market voided. This market has no clear settlement guidelines, since there is no official designation to the Tea Party.

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Suspend date: Mon 1st Nov 5pm PST (32 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (11)

5 weeks ago

imperiumvita Level 7, Pro (H$3,577)

predicted Yes (H$50 at 35%)

5 weeks ago

znmeb

predicted Yes (H$300 at 34%)

5 weeks ago

znmeb

predicted Yes (H$100 at 34%)

5 weeks ago

znmeb

predicted Yes (H$100 at 33%)

5 weeks ago

danallen2 Level 14, Prophet (H$115,870)

predicted No (H$1,000 at 66%)

Comments (6)

Erik

From the background:
So, the question is: Will the Tea Party / Ensuring Liberty Corp. succeed in electing 20 candidates in November? 20 or more won elections settles as a "Yes" and 19 or fewer settles as a "No".

How will we know if an election is won due to the Tea Party / Ensuring Liberty Corp?

posted 5 weeks ago

dnicolo1 Level 12, Guru (H$42,693)

Eric... Good point. I assume that if the "Tea Party Groups" can document that they supported a candidate and that candidate regardless, if a Republican, Independent, Or Democrat wins, that would determine the out come of the question. Your thoughts?

posted 5 weeks ago

eliminati Level 16, Oracle (H$528,840)

SO ... if the Tea Party People (who are not an actual political party) EITHER voice support or give one dollar of monetary support - at any time leading up to the election, that would be determined to be a "Tea Party candidate"?

Seems like the guidelines here are quite nebulous and vague, and that nearly any Republican and some independents would garner SOME support from them.

The Tea Party people have stated that they are not a party, do not claim allegiance to a party, and instead want to reform government on an almost fiscal-only basis. As far as I could tell, they would support a fiscally conservative person who was socially liberal (think someone like Rudy Giuliani).

posted 5 weeks ago

Erik

Good points all, eliminati.

Looks as though the only thing that could be tracked definitively would be Ensuring Liberty Corp. support.
Perhaps -

So, the question is: Will the Ensuring Liberty Corp. succeed in electing 20 candidates in November? 20 or more won elections settles as a "Yes" and 19 or fewer settles as a "No".

posted 5 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$731,148)

theres so many differnt folks claiming to represent the "tea party" i agree with eric's comment 4. then you got bandwagon tea partiers. they jumped in the scott brown race in the last few days with tv ads from my understanding. don't get me wrong i support their goals, its just theres not on offical tea party to be able to track their support or lack of. wait and see some group claiming to be the tea party will do sumthin stupid, then all tea party groups will suffer.

posted 5 weeks ago

znmeb

I created the question - should I re-write it?

posted 5 weeks ago