HORSE RACING--Will there be a Triple Crown Winner this year?

I believe this is a duplicate: http://www.hubdub.com/m6763/Will_Big_Brown_win_the_Triple_Crown

Big Brown won the Derby. The 2nd place finisher was the filly Eight Belles. She finished ahead of every other "Second string" horse in the field. None of the remaining Derby horses are running in the Preakness. Therefore the only competition Big Brown will face is a haphazard group of "third stringers". This is one of the best chance bets ever posted on Hubdub.

Yes it is a duplicate, but there is now so much money been wagered, on it, that I think its best that it remains open.

Donal...These two questions were asked prior to the Kentucky Derby start. If Big Brown had not won the Derby the other question would have been settled as "NO" and would have gone away. This question still would have remained open. Therefore, when originally posted they were not duplicates. As racing luck would have it they are now conjoined, but it was not by design.

This question is not a duplicate. It was asked before the race, Big Brown was the favorite to win the race. The next question was will there be a tripple crown winner also was created before the race, and was any horse could have won. I would be the odds should be higher for any horse to win now we are locked in to one horse winning the tripple.

The Preakness - WOW

Kent D. just let him run on his own....No whip required. The overhead view at the top of the stretch was awesome.

Thanks for not DQing the question . . . like Buckeyetom & Myunion said, it was posed before the Derby and one could have been voided...yep, they turned out to both represent the same idea, but that wasn't the intention...

But man...I'd never believed it would happen this year...I never believe it will happen again, any year...but after seeing Big Brown pull away coming out of that turn...I'm getting shivers just thinking about it...he might be the real deal!

I am betting every dollar I have, and my left kidney that BB doesn't make it 3 :-D ... Okay, so I am NOT thattttt sure, lol, but I am betting a ton and I really expect to be RICH, lol :-D

@lucidstates

looks like your odds might have just improved. ready to toss in that left kidney now? lol

http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/news;_ylt=AuR6kK3ZFPg8YQSd1v54liw5nYcB?slug=ap-belmont-bigbrown&prov=ap&type=lgns

Cool beans man! I hope the horse doesn't get a serious painful injury, but of course, I DO hope he loses :-D

Well, unless the "hiccups" count as a painful injury (see story). lol

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080526/ap_on_sp_ot/rac_belmont_big_brown

I have quite a bit riding (no pun intended!) on the suspended version of this question, so am hoping for a win!

The injury to his hoof might be just enough to cost him the race. Be interesting to see if this is just a ploy to get better odds on the horse.

i doubt that destry..the industry has enough scandals and problems with fixing races, drugs etc...the last thing they need is for the biggest and most public day to even have a hint of problems..besides its not like hes going to pay 20bux to win even if he runs and he may be hurt..the trainer made his money on the derby..they sold his breeding rites for like 30 mil i think so everybodys pretty set i think

I read somewhere that his worth will almost triple if he wins the preakness. I was just thinking that it wouldn't be the first time a horse race was questionable. Making a mountain out of a mole hill might change his odds from 3-2 to 2-1, so that would mean millions for gamblers. Especially if this horse is as strong as it looks. In the Belmont the horse was barely running and won it going away.

yeah but it would be more like changing from 1-5 to maybe 1-2..if it was a rinky dink track in the middle of nowhere maybe but not on this stage i dont think..but thats just my opinion

Sports and scandals?! nooo.
Well just to throw my H$.02 in, I think this makes it very interesting also. Since he already won the Preakness (by 5 lengths and reporting to just let him go), does that mean that his value has already tripled or did you mean a win at the Belmont (the third race of the triple crown) to increase his value?

And from a betting perspective, I would much rather win $1 for every 2 that I bet than $1 for every 5 that I bet...H$ or real $....big difference!

not to speak for him but i think he meant belmont..when they put him out to stud their price for mating with him goes up for the company doing it..as he wins more big races ..his connections already sold his breeeding rights i think so i guess the company doing it would benefit most and i beleive they want to run him in the breeders cup also if hes ok...the big bettors arent betting him to win at 1-5 or 1-2..they unload a fortune on him to show which is y when a big favorite is off the board u see huge show prices

This horse is sooooo not gonna win this thing... At least I hope not, LOL :-D I have $40k riding on it LOL ... Yeah, I'm gamblin', but I lived in Vegas long enough and I've watched ever Triple Crown for like 10 years, and it's been like 40 since Secretariat, so no, he ain't gonna win it ;-D
If he does, I will commit H$ suicide, but if he loses, like I totally almost guarantee he will lose, then I'll have doubled my H$ mula :-)

Sry, I have almost $32k on it :-D

Sry again, Affirmed not Secretariat and also 30 yrs not 40...... Haha, now how's that for confidence in my opinion :-P ... Sry, it's like 1am and I've been up a looooong time........... WHAT WAS THAT?!?! I giant pink bunny just ran through my room singin' take me out to the ball game............... :-P

So what my mind is thinking and I know this sound conspiracy theory stuff, but horse racing is in such desperate need of good publicity that I think they will make sure this horse wins. With the high profile deaths in the sport, a big triple crown winner would really propel horse racing.
I have about 8k on this now, thinking of adding a few more with such good odds. If Hillary hurries up and drops out then I will be cash rich again, for now I am trying to make do with what I got.

I was wondering where my bunny went.

Sounds like it's already settled!
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/2008-05-29-dutrow-bigbrown_N.htm?csp=34

Take it from me Crudsy, being out to stud isn't all it's cracked up to be.

from what I've heard Big Brown is a heavy favorite and his hoof is just fine now... I'm going to bet yes here for a nice amount ;)

Call me a dreamer, but I'm feeeeeeelin' lucky! :-P ... I've bet $32,178 total on NO! :-D ... Man, if I win, I will like over TRIPLE my net worth, if I lose, I will lose another 50% of my net worth... LOL... Man, I am soooooooooooooo hoping this horse stumbles at the start, and then around the 3/4 mark, and then again before the line!! Oh, and the jockey could also fall off and the saddle come loose, and lemme think what else could happen....... Oh yess, his hoof could explode ... Not that I'm hoping for any real injuries of course, but a stumble or two would be just peachy :-D

this question will count as one of the top h$ questions thus far

I think Big Brown has no competition. He might lose, but he won't be beaten. I'm betting on a Triple Crown winner.

well no matter whcih way u feel ur getting a nice price..although the horse will b 1-5 and ur getting even money here so that is the real value but alot of things can happen in a horse race..if he gets a clean trip though i dont think anybody is beating him but that has been said about many who have tried b4 him..owl maybe u aint getting the stud fees and love u feel u deserve because owl doesnt really resonate with the ladies..:)

cashed out everything but the suspended and bet it all on NO. it's either win big or start over ... only time and some unknown will tell

LOL, Meandering, you got balls man!!!!! Big Ones!!!!!!!! But I agree with ya, and like I said, I got 1/2 my money allllll on NO, so I am gonna either win huge or reallllllly have to play catch up all summer :-P

I see it this way, Sure this horse has no real competition, but neither did Silver Charm and guess what? When it comes down to it, for a single horse to beat the whole field, in the 3 biggest races of the year, all in a row, is one hell of an undertaking and like history shows, it nearly never happens, at least not since WAYYY before I was even born, lol :-D

the way i see it, it's been 30 years.... there is a reason we follow it so closely every year.... we are way past due for a winner.... and he has all the goods.... i'm in it for him to win it...

I think this is the most active question in which the odds are so close to 50-50. I just don't see how this horse loses this race. The horse seems destined for greatness. I love how every reporter describe the horse and his emotions, this horse plays up to the cameras, seems he knows what is at stake and just like his trainer is really going to show off if given the chance. I wonder if they push this horse hard to the finish if he is up by 6 or more lengths down the home stretch. They do plan on running him in two other races before going out to stud.

if the category editor and question creator are okay with changing suspend time, I would agree to suspend this right as the horses enter the starting gate, to give people more time to wager right up to last possible second.

I love the idea to leave this Q up to close to race time, but I'd not say AT the gate, cause it could maybe get delayed, so like maybe 10-15 min before Gate time... I loooooooove this Q and I think it would be a positive to have it stay open to near gate time :-D

I've not been this excited about a Triple Crown race in like 6 years man!

As it is, the question suspends about an hour and fifteen minutes before posttime...some have expressed interest in changing the time until just before posttime...I have no problem with that, given the excitement about the event and the question...how about setting it for 6:20 Eastern, which would be 3:20 Pacific...that would seem to be close enough...

So change it if you approve...it's OK with me

wonder if there is a horse entered named "whosthatnag"

Big Brown to start Belmont Stakes from No. 1 post.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/R/RAC_BELMONT_DRAW?SITE=AZTUC&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

From wot I was reading last night, $300 on Big Brown to win pays out a whopping $100.
I guess I'll put another K on this pony..

if post 2 to 6 are fast starters and get in front of big brown once ...he's done
everyone else will be hollering RUN, RUN, COME ON, COME ON
i'll be hollering BOX'EM IN, BOX'EM IN

multiple entries from one stable are always interesting... not that one horse running interference so that the other horse has a chance happens in horse racing

.....and there is a very good reason why handicapping at the ponies will never be my day job LOL

I agree with Meandering..... BOX'EM IN!!!!!!!!!!!! BOX'EM IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Dude, this starting in the #1 position, is not good news I'd say! WOOT!

There ya go, My money where my big mouth is, LOL ... I just dropped another $5,322 on "NO" so that means I got a total of $37,500 on "NO" :-D

like i said one fast starter gets in front and it's BOXEM IN BOXEM IN

if the only way u think he can lose is if others try to box him in ur betting the wrong way..:)..if he was a closer then id b more worried if i was his connections but he has plenty of speed..also pp 1 has won plenty of belmonts..the other speed in this race is cheap speed which is y everybody except the japanese horse is 12-1 or more..they r looking for some prize money..these speed horses if they do go out will be done early..none r getting a mile and a half..i doubt hell b 2 far back early but he is versatile enough to get out quick and b in a good spot..just because he starts out on the rail doesnt mean hell stay there..all he has to do is move him one path over..no more boxed in..i mean whats harder..starting from 20 post going 5 wide or rail against 9 horses..he has a mile and a half to get in a good spot..of course he could lose and if something doesnt happen after 30 years it probably wont after 31..but it has to sometime

OK! ...which one fast starter would that be? :)
Winning his 5 career races by 39 combined lengths is PFF..

And that is exactly why I doubt he'll win again! Think of the statistics people, if you win, and win and win and win and win and these come by a total of nearly 9 lengths / race, what are the odds of doing it yet again? I mean seriously, this is mathematically very, very, very difficult and math isn't fickle nor is it opinionated and swayed by a horses charm and speed, the fact is, statistically speaking, there have been numerous horses who've been great like Big B. but how many kept that pace long enough to take a Triple Crown home? Lemme count how many since I was born........ Okay, none, but that works against me, cause math ALSO says that after 30 straight no Triple Crowns that one is likely to come, however, that's not the only stat, the other is this horse not losing, then add the jockey, and his training methods, a possible sore hoof, the starting position, the fact that EVERY rider will be trying their derndist to BOXEM IN and then you got the media attention, the pressure from the monumental task, etc, etc. So, when all is combined, this would be like winning ALL your regular season games by at least 9 points, then winning ALL your playoff games and now the Championship games are here and you must win them all too. Don't think that's a good analogy? Well, then tell me why no one in that type of game has done it in 30 years either?

I am simply trying to show the sheer magnitude of this accomplishment and how rare it really is, therefore, history and math clearly indicate that this is a most unlikely occurrence, and one final note, the reason the gambling odds are as they are, is because no one is willing to bet against this horse, thus the book makers MUST change them in order to even out THEIR positions so as not to get their clocks cleaned in this race. It's simple book makers must hedge, therefore, the odds are as they are, not because that is the most likely event, but because gamblers believe it is, and you know how likely gamblers are to be correct? Historically, not so good :-D

With that all said, I've added another $3,567 to my wager on NO and it now stands at $41,067 on NO ... LOL ... Now I'm gambling, hahahaha :-P

@luci - I just had a whole little lecture on probability and statistics typed out, but have deleted it because no one really cares. Good luck to you (my h$ is still on yes).

another day, another H$20 on NO

This question is one for the record books, I can't believe the amount of money wagered and yet the odds are sticking close to 50-50. Talk about some wild swings on leaderboard.

Wow is right man! This is amazing and many fortunes will be won and lost here, lol, and @meandering, me too man, another day another H$20 on NO ;-P

What happened to all you guys on no? :p

I could cash out now and nearly double my money.

i did cash out huge... i made a fortune and race didn't even run yet

ah well that would do it, lol. I think that was the right move for you, meanwhile I kind of want to stay with the question but i don't like to leave money sitting on a question when i get get 90% of my profit right now and possible lose it all otherwise.... So I'm out too!

im hoping more cash out, i want to buy back in, but want better odds

cashed out and lost 1000's on no, re-bet at better odds and gonna laugh when big brown comes in third

i have to say i can't believe so many are staking so much on big brown losing, the only real competitor in this race was casino drive and he is scratched.
All the experts are saying big brown by 7 or more lengths.

My margin of victory and winning time questions are still open to wager on. I say Big Brown will win by at least five lengths or more and the winning time will be around 2:27.00. Thanks for the question BB and enjoy watching the race.

OH YEAH OH YEAH 38 to 1 beat the ONE horse in the race

there's a children's story that reminds of this race... you know the one ferdinad decides to sit down and smell all the pretty flowers

lol glad i cashed out! Sorry i didn't bet heavily on no after that!!!

last place, rofl.

Ooops!

for those still in a state of shock, awe, and/or disbelief.... please refer to comment #38

YESSS!!!!

I bet big on this and won.... ooooh maybe I'll break 100k soon. Then my life will be complete.

Life is good...I won almost as much by cashing out as I did on the race.

Wish someone would settle this market.

This market has been flagged. it should be voided for mafia interference....and because i lost a bundle...

Donal normally signs on first thing in morning in edinburgh time, I would imagine be settled in the next 5 hours. I know alot of fortunes are going to be effected by this. I took a small beating, not as bad as it could have been, but wow what a disappointing belmont race.

Okay guys I just gotta say: WOOOOOOOOOOOOO - FREAKIN - HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Man oh man oh man oh man!!! I had nearly 90% of ALL my net worth riding on NO, I bet over $42k and now I'm gonna be freakin' loaded!!!!!!! WOW!!! I am soooooo flippin' happy right now!!! Hahahahahahahaha, wooohoooooo!

At this time, I am worth a paltry $18,641 cause so many people bet that BB would win.... Man, when this Settles I'll be like at $70k or something :-D

Okay, I went from $18,661 in Net Worth last night, to $83,001 as of right now ... Man I was sooooo scared I was gonna be whiped out, honestly, lol, but man he ended up coming in last, WOW ... THANK YOU Big Brown :-D

First I want to say congrats to lucid and meandering who seemed to really be risking big here. But I also want to offer a prayer for the horse. I hope that it was just a matter of being safe rather than sorry and there is no life threatening illness to this horse.

i to agree with destry, i would not want to celebrate at the expense of the horse's heath, however, to all those that place thier bets on what they read in the news......HAAAAA HAAAAA

and now i have to find the time to go back and re-placed all those bets i cashed in (sigh)