Will any further volcanic eruption occur which will force the evacuation of atleast 1000 inhabitants by 31st May?
No reports indicating this has happened
Background:>
Chaiten volcano erupts.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/default.stm
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 1st Jun 2008 7:36am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%
Action history:
This question was obviously written after the release of the news article, so it means 'will any further eruption occur' in the month of May. I have amended the question text to clarify.
Suspend date: Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 1st Jun 2008 7:36am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (53)
53 predictions
Comments (9)
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7381652.stm
This question was obviously written after the release of the news article, so it means 'will any further eruption occur' in the month of May. I have amended the question text to clarify.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1927588/Chile%27s-Chaiten-volcano-forces-4%2C500-to-flee.html
That's 4500. So does that count as 500 of the 1000 referred to in the question?
The problem with the question is that eruptions are constant once they begin, they do not switch on and off, as it were. They may get more and less intense for brief periods, but they keep going overall from the start to the finish (i.e. when the volcano returns to 'dormant') of the entire event.
The question should maybe read "Will the eruption force at least a further 1000 residents to flee before the 31st ".
In which case, those of us who bet 'yes' are already half-way there.
2.Since volcanic eruptions are constant , if more than 1000 inhabitants are asked evacuate before the first eruption then this can be settled .
Thus, this question must refer to another volcano eruption which is not the same volcano in Chile. In response to #5, the 500 external people evacuated in Chile does not count towards the total 1000 required to settle the question.
http://www.miamiherald.com/915/story/548294.html
(Yes, I know the question was about people...!)
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