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Will any further volcanic eruption occur which will force the evacuation of atleast 1000 inhabitants by 31st May?

Settled as No

No reports indicating this has happened

Background:


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
5%
No
95%
Activity: H$50,972
Settled as No on Sun 1st Jun 2008 7:36am PDT

Suspend date: Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 1st Jun 2008 7:36am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%

Action history:

Created Sat 3rd May 2008 10:45am PDT by junkie_1
Settlement requested Sat 3rd May 2008 3:36pm PDT by randomkiller403: I think this is supposed to be before June 31st, but a lot of people may have already bet on it thinking it was supposed to be may in reality.
Clarified Sat 3rd May 2008 11:52pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Relevant time periods start from the date of creation of the question (ie 9:45am, PST 3 May). Otherwise, of course, the question would already have a known outcome.

This question was obviously written after the release of the news article, so it means 'will any further eruption occur' in the month of May. I have amended the question text to clarify.
Settlement requested Sun 4th May 2008 11:22pm PDT by dieseldog: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,354123,00.html
Suspended Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 1st Jun 2008 1:27am PDT by orlin: No
Settled as 'No' Sun 1st Jun 2008 7:36am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: No reports indicating this has happened

Suspend date: Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 1st Jun 2008 7:36am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 1st Jun 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (53)

53 predictions

31 weeks ago
chacha102 predicted No (H$50 at 95%)
31 weeks ago
geo4prez predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
31 weeks ago
curios predicted No (H$200 at 87%)
32 weeks ago
swilson predicted No (H$100 at 78%)
32 weeks ago
syzslack predicted No (H$100 at 78%)
more

Comments (9)

I think this is supposed to be before June 31st, but a lot of people may have already bet on it thinking it was supposed to be may in reality.
posted 35 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
the question and settlement has may...why would you think june?
posted 35 weeks ago
  3 epicur
This question is confusing. The link in the background leads to an article about an eruption causing 4000 to evacuate. Do they mean an another eruption besides this one causing 1000 to evacuate? Because this eruption already caused 4000.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7381652.stm
posted 35 weeks ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
Relevant time periods start from the date of creation of the question (ie 9:45am, PST 3 May). Otherwise, of course, the question would already have a known outcome.

This question was obviously written after the release of the news article, so it means 'will any further eruption occur' in the month of May. I have amended the question text to clarify.
posted 35 weeks ago
  5 rogi
There's another link from today here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1927588/Chile%27s-Chaiten-volcano-forces-4%2C500-to-flee.html

That's 4500. So does that count as 500 of the 1000 referred to in the question?

The problem with the question is that eruptions are constant once they begin, they do not switch on and off, as it were. They may get more and less intense for brief periods, but they keep going overall from the start to the finish (i.e. when the volcano returns to 'dormant') of the entire event.

The question should maybe read "Will the eruption force at least a further 1000 residents to flee before the 31st ".

In which case, those of us who bet 'yes' are already half-way there.
posted 35 weeks ago
  6 sclossick
Does the question refer to just one volcano in particular? It seems as though any eruption anywhere might qualify.
posted 35 weeks ago
  7 junkie_1
1.Any volcano which erupts anywhere qualifies.
2.Since volcanic eruptions are constant , if more than 1000 inhabitants are asked evacuate before the first eruption then this can be settled .
posted 35 weeks ago
  8 tisha[Admin]
Thank you for the clarificaiton junkie_1. It seems to me that this question would have to refer to a volcano other than the one in Chile, because otherwise the information would already be known and the question voided from the beginning.

Thus, this question must refer to another volcano eruption which is not the same volcano in Chile. In response to #5, the 500 external people evacuated in Chile does not count towards the total 1000 required to settle the question.
posted 35 weeks ago
Here is an article that is interesting but irrelevent. They moved 6,000 tons of salmon from areas around the volcano in Chile.
http://www.miamiherald.com/915/story/548294.html

(Yes, I know the question was about people...!)
posted 32 weeks ago

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