fingers_of_fury
DJIA Texas Holdem Poker Match: hi/lo vs. open/close week of May 5th, 2008
As explained in settlement request
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI
Background:
1-13: A2345678910JQK of Clubs
14-26: A2345678910JQK of Diamonds
27-39: A2345678910JQK of Spades
40-52: A2345678910JQK of Hearts
The last three digits of the DJIA will be used to select the cards. The last three digits range of 0.00-9.99 will be used as 0%-99.9%. For example the last three digits of 12946.29 is 6.29 so 62.9% (decimal point moved one digit to the right) would be our random number. 62.9% * 52 = 32.7 which would be card number 33. Card number 33 is the 7 of Spades. The 7 of Spades would then be removed from the deck prior to calculating the next card. Our next random number would be multiplied by the remaining cards, 51 to select the next card.
Cards to be calculated/removed from deck IN THIS EXACT ORDER***:
Monday May 5th hole cards: Hi,Lo,Open,Close
Tuesday May 6th Flop cards: Hi,Lo,Close
Wednessday May 7th Turn card: Close (Predictions suspend at midnight!)
Thursday May 8th River card: Close
***The order is important as cards removed change the quantity/order of the remaining cards
Yahoo finance will be used to determine the DJIA values:
<A HREF="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^DJI">Click Here For DJIA</A>
All Texas Holdem Poker rules apply
Read the comments of this question http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/_6402 for more examples of how the cards are selected and some hints on how to predict the next card as you watch the Dow approaching it's close.
Each evening I will post the results of the cards selected in the comments section (unless someone beats me to it, in which case I/we will verify their calculations.
©Hubdubbob - Special thanks/credit to Hubdubbob for DJIA Poker!!!
Settlement details:
Cards to be calculated/removed from deck IN THIS EXACT ORDER***:
Monday April 28th hole cards: Hi,Lo,Open,Close
Tuesday April 29th Flop cards: Hi,Lo,Close
Wednessday April 30th Turn card: Close (Predictions suspend at midnight!)
Thursday May 1st River card: Close
***The order is important as cards removed change the quantity/order of the remaining cards
Yahoo finance will be used to determine the DJIA values: <A HREF="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^DJI">Click Here For DJIA</A>
All Texas Holdem Poker rules apply
Settled
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hi/lo wins |
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open/close wins |
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tie |
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Suspend date: Wed 7th May 2008 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 8th May 2008 4:55am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 7th May 2008 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: hi/lo wins: 45%, open/close wins: 45%, tie: 10%
Action history:
fingers_of_fury fingers_of_fury: Dear Admin, if this is confusing, please DON'T void before consulting with someone who enjoys math and/or understands Texas Holdem.
Please settle as: Open/Close
See the comments section for a more complete explanation than provided here.
I used the DJIA's last three digits to generate a random percent from 0%-99.9%. I then multiplied the % times the number of cards in the deck. Ex: 10%*52 cards would be 5.2 - card number 5.
In the background info I posted the order of the starting deck 1-52.
I removed dealt cards as they were drawn to avoid the same card being dealt twice. Ex: if 10% was the second %, it would be multiplied by 51cards which would be 5.1 or card number 5. At this point card number 5 would be a different card from when the deck had 52 cards because the previous card #5 was removed.
To insure that I was an impartial referee in the event of disputes (thankfully no disputes) I announced in the comments that I wouldn't (and I didn't) wager on this question.
I know that many users don't enjoy math as much as I do and they had to wait for me to post the results, so if I create another of these questions I will refrain from betting on my own DJIA Texas Holdem questions.
Also, I would appreciate your input/opinion. If this question bothers/annoys you, I'd rather not do them even if they're technically allowed because I LOVE this site and the work you're doing and I have no desire to bother/annoy you.
Here were the hole cards:
Hi/Lo 8-4 of Spades
Open/Close Jack-9 of Hearts & Spades
Here was the FLOP & TURN:
5C KS 3C 9D
Open/Close now has a pair of nines. Hi/lo completely missed the Flop, has no straight or flush possibilities, and the best it could do on the River is improve to a pair of eights which still loses to Open/closes' pair of nines. No ties are possible.
Open/Close wins!
andrew
: As explained in settlement request
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI
Suspend date: Wed 7th May 2008 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 8th May 2008 4:55am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 7th May 2008 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (29)
29 predictions
hgumbert
predicted open/close wins (H$400 at 64%)
hubdubbob
predicted open/close wins (H$157 at 39%)
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted hi/lo wins (H$25 at 54%)
mtf0528
predicted hi/lo wins (H$500 at 54%)
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
predicted open/close wins (H$20 at 52%)
thomzen
predicted tie (H$20 at 7%)
lucidstates
predicted hi/lo wins (H$20 at 41%)
kasulkedComments (24)
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More questions by
fingers_of_fury
40 settled, 16 voided
To remain impartial/unbiased, I will not wager on this question. If all goes well, and as more users understand the calculations, I will wager on future questions if more are created.
THis is the greatest set of questions I've ever seen on HubDub, hahahahaha, RIGHT ON!!! :-D
PLEASE keep em coming!!!
05/05/08 13105.75 12896.50 13056.57 12969.54
5.75 6.50 6.57 9.54
% 57.5 65.0 65.7 95.4
* cards 52.00 51.00 50.00 49.00
Card # 29.90 33.15 32.85 46.75
4 of Spades 8 of Spades 9 of Spades Jack of Hearts
Open/Close: Jack of Hearts 9 of Spades
Jack-9 offsuit is a favorite to win at 64.25%
8-4 of Spades is the underdog at 34.41%
These two hands will result in a tie 1.34% of the time
We have 48 cards left in the deck:
1-13: A2345678910JQK of Clubs
14-26: A2345678910JQK of Diamonds
27-36: A2356710JQK of Spades
37-48: A2345678910QK of Hearts
Numbers 0.00-2.81 converted to 0%-28.1% will hit the first 13 cards
Numbers 2.82-5.51 converted to 28.2%-55.1% will hit the second 13 cards
Numbers 5.52-7.60 converted to 55.2%-76.0% will hit the third 10 cards (Spades-remember that 3 Spades are now hole cards and removed)
Numbers 7.61-9.99 converted to 76.1%-99.9% will hit the last 12 cards (Hearts-Jack of hearts a hole card and removed)
With each card removed the odds change a little bit as the Lo number will be multiplied by 47 cards after the Hi card is drawn, and the Close will be multiplied by the remaining 46 after Hi & Lo are drawn.
NOTE: In this context, the Hi,Lo,Close is used to draw the FLOP. Today they were used as Hi,Lo,Open,Close to determine the Hole cards, but Tue will be the FLOP, Wed (Close) the TURN card and Thur (Close) the RIVER.
HI/LO hand: 8 & 4 of Spades (34.41% to win) UNDERDOG
OPEN/CLOSE hand: Jack of Hearts & 9 of Spades (64.25% to win) FAVORITE
These two hands will tie 1.34% of the time
05/06/08 Hi Lo Close
13071.07 12817.53 13020.83
last three 1.07 7.53 0.83
% 10.7 75.3 8.3
remaining cards 48 47 46
Card # 5.14 35.39 3.82
5 of Clubs King of Spades 3 of Clubs
Here are the new odds from CardPlayer.com calculator:
FLOP: 5C KS 3C
HI/LO hand: 8 & 4 of Spades (29.70% to win) UNDERDOG
OPEN/CLOSE hand: Jack of Hearts & 9 of Spades (69.49% to win) FAVORITE
These two hands with this flop will tie 0.81% of the time
We have 45 cards left in the deck:
1-11: A24678910JQK of Clubs
12-24: A2345678910JQK of Diamonds
25-33: A2356710JQ of Spades
34-45: A2345678910QK of Hearts
05/07/08 Close
12814.35
last three 4.35
% 43.5
remaining cards 45
Card # 19.58
9 of Diamonds
FLOP: 5C KS 3C TURN: 9D
HI/LO hand: 8 & 4 of Spades (0% to win) LOOSER
OPEN/CLOSE hand: Jack of Hearts & 9 of Spades (100% to win) WINNER
These two hands with this flop will tie 0% of the time
I'll post the river card tomorrow evening just for fun but this game is OVER!
05/08/08 Close
12866.78
last three 6.78
% 67.8
remaining cards 44
Card # 29.83
10 of Spades
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