
Will a Southern Hemisphere country threaten a Northern Hemishere country for food related needs by the end of 2008?
No such reports
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: last Thursday 9:47am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%
Action history:
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: last Thursday 9:47am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Predictions (19)
19 predictions
Comments (5)
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Please provide some examples of a YES settlement. Would a Southern Hemisphere leader calling a Northern Hemisphere derogatory names or stating a wish/desire for harm count as YES?
South Africa experiences unanticipated catastrophe, something like a red tide affecting seafood or locust, or a virus, so they advise the United States that they (the US) will find their way clear to quickly ship some replacement food south to them to ensure that the world diamond trade, which is vital not just for jewelry but for industry, will not be interrupted.
or... A radical Muslim faction in Indonesia blackmails the United States by closing the Strait of Malacca unless prices/supply of food stuffs are provided them at improved terms.
My thinking is that the world food supplies have at least the appearance of vulnerability, and a nation's options for long range, creative influence have been expanded to include things like cyber-terrorism or the interruption of the flow of commerce or shipping and that there are many restless communities that may become not just angry, but angry and hungry.
Or, a deep South American country, with apparent, but shady ties to Hugo Chavez decides to "further" nationalize the Panama Canal and decide which flags are permitted passage based on new criteria.
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