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Will a Canadian dollar be worth more than a U. S. dollar by the end of May, 2008

Voided

settlement options not mutually exclusive

Background:

With the fall of the US $ continuing for the most part, several currencies are now experiencing a period of near equity with the American currency. Currently (5/4/08) the Canadian dollar is valued at 0.980969 USD. Will it continue to strengthen against the US $ and be rated at a level higher than 1.00 USD anytime during May, using the daily closing value as a guide?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

Yes, the Canadian dollar will be valued at more than 1.00 USD
46%
No, the Canadian dollar will not be valued at more than 1.00 USD
50%
The best it will do is be valued at exactly 1.00 USD
4%
Voided Sat 17th May 2008 9:04pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 30th May 2008 12:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes, the Canadian dollar will be valued at more than 1.00 USD: 46%, No, the Canadian dollar will not be valued at more than 1.00 USD: 50%, The best it will do is be valued at exactly 1.00 USD: 4%

Action history:

Created Sun 4th May 2008 5:29am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
Settlement requested Sat 17th May 2008 12:52pm PDT by spyder: The Canadian dollar closed at $1.002 USD as reported by (for example) the Globe and Mail
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080516.wloonie0516/BNStory/Business/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
Voided Sat 17th May 2008 9:04pm PDT by andrew: settlement options not mutually exclusive

Suspend date: Fri 30th May 2008 12:59am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (110)

110 predictions

33 weeks ago
myunion predicted Yes, the Canadian dollar will be valued at more than 1.00 USD (H$20 at 89%)
33 weeks ago
rafalotufo predicted Yes, the Canadian dollar will be valued at more than 1.00 USD (H$50 at 89%)
33 weeks ago
emptywin predicted The best it will do is be valued at exactly 1.00 USD (H$40 at 3%)
33 weeks ago
emptywin predicted No, the Canadian dollar will not be valued at more than 1.00 USD (H$40 at 7%)
33 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted Yes, the Canadian dollar will be valued at more than 1.00 USD (H$300 at 71%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 crowe
As of May 9th:
0.9942

So close!!!
posted 34 weeks ago
As of May 15th:
1.0005 per http://bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/fxc.html
By the wording of the question I assume that par has been reached (choice #3), that choice #2 is false, and that it must close at $1.01 or more in the rest of the month for choice #1 to be correct.
posted 33 weeks ago
  3 andrew
Considering this is currency, I would say that to be valued at greater than $1.00, the rounding to two figures would have to round to $1.01. Currently 1.00 CAD is worth 1.00217 USD, which if rounded is $1.00.

Andrew
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 33 weeks ago
  4 ryanb37
Also andrew if It is .9992 it is rounded to 1.00
posted 33 weeks ago
what if option 2 and 3 are both correct?

It's last close was $1.002 USD. Rounding means it was NOT valued at more than 1.00 USD and that it's best so far was exactly 1.00 USD.
posted 33 weeks ago
...unless rounding applies to some but not all 3 options.

I'm guessing the original intent was 3 options: a Close Over 1.00 USD (=>1.01), all Closes Under 1.00 USD (=<0.99), or Best Close Exactly 1.00 USD (=1.00)
posted 33 weeks ago
  7 ryanb37
true this should have been a yes or no question the way its worded I hate when people over complicate a market by giving options that can contradict Maybe void this question and then repost as a yes or no
posted 33 weeks ago
  8 yonemoto
This should not have been voided until the end of the month, because there was a very, very good chance that the ambiguity over item three would have been resolved.
posted 33 weeks ago

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