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Will there be any deaths associated with tornadoes during the week of May 5-11, 2008 in the United States.

Settled as 6 or more deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Severe-Weather.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Background:

Seven people were killed in Arkansas as several tornadoes struck throughout the state last week. Will there be more deaths from tornadoes in the U.S. this week?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

No deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11
8%
1-2 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11
91%
3-5 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11
1%
6 or more deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11
1%
Activity: H$25,880
Settled as 6 or more deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11 on Sat 10th May 2008 11:40pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 10th May 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 10th May 2008 11:40pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 10th May 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: No deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11: 40%, 1-2 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11: 25%, 3-5 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11: 20%, 6 or more deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11: 15%

Action history:

Created Sun 4th May 2008 5:37am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
Suspended Sat 10th May 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 10th May 2008 9:32pm PDT by robmar: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24558648/
Settled as '6 or more deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11' Sat 10th May 2008 11:40pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Severe-Weather.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Suspend date: Sat 10th May 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 10th May 2008 11:40pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 10th May 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (72)

72 predictions

34 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted 1-2 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11 (H$5,000 at 85%)
34 weeks ago
ryanb37 predicted 1-2 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11 (H$4,444 at 61%)
34 weeks ago
myunion predicted 1-2 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11 (H$2 at 45%)
34 weeks ago
theonecalledmichael predicted 1-2 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11 (H$1,000 at 37%)
34 weeks ago
lovethenews predicted 1-2 deaths due to tornadoes May 5-11 (H$200 at 29%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 crowe
As of May 9th:
0.9942

So close!!!
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 crowe
doh - ignore that!
posted 34 weeks ago
  3 ryanb37
well so far there has only been 1 in NC this week lets hope for no more
posted 34 weeks ago
  4 robmar
Wow- big payout on this one:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24558648/
posted 34 weeks ago
I had no idea that those 6+ deaths would all be within 20 miles of my home. It's like a war zone here in Missouri.
posted 34 weeks ago

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