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Will Hubdub hit 7500 users by the end of May?

Settled as No

5993 users registered.
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
2%
No
98%
Activity: H$80,066
Settled as No on Sun 1st Jun 12:52pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sat 31st May 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Sun 1st Jun 12:52pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 31st May 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 4th May 10:30am PDT by junkie_1
Suspended Sat 31st May 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 1st Jun 12:36pm PDT by belarusia: answer is NO
Settled as 'No' Sun 1st Jun 12:52pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (43)

43 predictions

13 weeks ago
caveman1144 predicted Yes (H$20 at 2%)
13 weeks ago
caveman1144 predicted Yes (H$20 at 8%)
13 weeks ago
philm predicted Yes (H$100 at 8%)
13 weeks ago
mick predicted Yes (H$50 at 7%)
14 weeks ago
epicur predicted No (H$10,000 at 91%)
more

Comments (11)

http://www.hubdub.com/e/User/_6298
As of Mon May 12th, 10:00pm PST
posted 15 weeks ago
"Will Hubdub User 6399 hit Hubdub User 7501 by July 1st?"
posted 15 weeks ago
http://www.hubdub.com/e/User/_6419

I think someone is cheating the system..... Have you guys seen the names of the latest signups? They are nearly ALL between 5 - 6 letters long and totally uncreative names...... They seem to be random words smunched together, I think the Admins need to check who's making all these new users, just to make sure everythings on the up and up.
posted 15 weeks ago
BTW, I do NOT believe Junkie is doing the cheating, I totally think it is some other users!

Junkie, I think you're cool man, but someone's scammin'!
posted 15 weeks ago
Thanks everyone for highlighting your concerns about gaming of these markets. I've looked through the registration profiles of the last 500 new registrations and there is no evidence of gaming (including sexybaby, you guys should friend her and find out :-). We have had a surge new registrations over the past 2 weeks (hurrah!) which has been down to three things:
1. More people have been getting their friends to register (thanks! Keep spreading the word)
2. We got mentioned by Leo Laporte last Saturday. Leo is an A-list tech journalist who does the awesome This Week in Tech podcast
3. We were on the front page of Reddit yesterday (you may have seen the site slow down slightly as we dealt with the 12,000 new visitors they sent us - we've tuned the system so we can better handle that now)

We hope this is the start of much faster user growth so shoot high in your subsequent predictions!
posted 15 weeks ago
  6 junkie_1
And I am right here scripting Hubdub's growth and keeping eeryone aware of it through my user number questions.
I must also add that in the last question I made a truckload ...its like 21 hours left and 29 users required ..but odds for yes are at 33%. So I put in 10000 and now I have 9000 more. ;D
posted 15 weeks ago
  7 junkie_1
I personally think that this target set above is unachievable by 31st May so -
http://www.hubdub.com/m7463/Will_Hubdub_hit_7000_users_by_31st_May_2008
http://www.hubdub.com/m7464/Will_Hubdub_hit_6600_users_by_20th_May
posted 15 weeks ago
  8 junkie_1
Ah..so thats why the pages were loading so slowly yesterday.
posted 15 weeks ago
if 25% of the visitors sign up it will be a sure thing fot yes
posted 15 weeks ago
  10 junkie_1
I don't think so .If anyone had to join they would have already done so . In that case today Hubdub's userbase would have grown by a 100 users or so , but as it seems only 25 new users joined today.
posted 15 weeks ago
  11 junkie_1
To affirm my point I have put 13000 on no.
posted 15 weeks ago

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