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Will there be war between Georgia and Russia by 13 May?

Settled as No

Phew.

Background:

'Georgia says "very close" to war with Russia'
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSL0616183020080506?sp=true


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
1%
No
99%
Activity: H$69,850
Settled as No on Wed 14th May 2008 1:26am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 13th May 2008 5pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 14th May 2008 1:26am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 13th May 2008 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Tue 6th May 2008 6:28am PDT by orlin
Suspended Tue 13th May 2008 5pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 13th May 2008 8:58pm PDT by orlin: There is no reports of such an event.

Answer is no.
Settled as 'No' Wed 14th May 2008 1:26am PDT by lesley[Admin]: Phew.

Suspend date: Tue 13th May 2008 5pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 14th May 2008 1:26am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 13th May 2008 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (55)

55 predictions

34 weeks ago
myunion predicted No (H$50 at 99%)
34 weeks ago
kokojumbo predicted No (H$1,000 at 99%)
34 weeks ago
ekatz predicted No (H$50 at 99%)
34 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted No (H$3,297 at 99%)
34 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted No (H$50 at 98%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 lesley[Admin]
How will this be settled? Suggestion: mainstream media source announces "Russia at war with Georgia" or similar.
posted 35 weeks ago
  2 orlin
This was my presumption. As Reuters inform us that the 'war is very close' according to the Georgian officials, the same should be the case if this really happens. In fact, if there really are acts of war, this will be world news #1, I think.
posted 35 weeks ago

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