Created Wed 7th May 9am PST by tomg

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TWiT Twitter Derby: Who'll be most followed by midnight May 25th?

Forecast: Kevin Rose (58% chance 10% )

Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Kevin Rose with a probability of 58% (up 10% in last 1 day)

Welcome to the TWiT Twitter Derby, where your favorite stars from TWiT (http://twit.tv/twit) compete to get the most followers on Twitter (http://www.twitter.com). The race is tight, but who will have the upper hand by midnight May 25th (PST) according to http://www.twitterholic.com/ ?

Prize: Hubdub T-shirt to the winner!
Event: Grade 1, A-list thoroughbred tech pundits
Distance: 4 weeks
6 runners

Colours	Runner	Age	Form
	Kevin Rose	31	Young colt only recently switching to this event. Likely to make a late surge
	Leo Laporte	51	This grey may be a late starter but should demonstrate a powerful finish
	Jason Calacanis	37	Definitely a talking horse. Always a strong starter although some question if he can go the distance
	Robert Scoble	43	A couple of false starts but a real work horse
	John C Dvorak	55	Coming from the back of the field and not the youngest in the pack but could be one to watch
	Wil Harris	25	Unclear how this British stallion will perform on US dirt. A long shot

% chance over time

   Larger graph on Graph tab below

Make your prediction!

We'll let you know if you get it right or not.

	Kevin Rose	58%
	Leo Laporte	24%
	Jason Calacanis	2%
	Robert Scoble	1%
	John C Dvorak	14%
	Wil Harris	0%

Total activity: H$22,406

Question suspends in 1 week

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As shown by http://www.twitterholic.com/

 

Details

• Question status: Open
• Suspend date: Sun 25th May 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
• Settlement details: As shown by http://www.twitterholic.com/
• Initial likelihoods: Kevin Rose: 27%, Leo Laporte: 30%, Jason Calacanis: 22%, Robert Scoble: 15%, John C Dvorak: 5%, Wil Harris: 1%

Action history

Created Wed 7th May 9am PST by tomg

Comments

  1 nigeleccles

Leo Laporte has got to be the strong favorite. He has the chance to plug this on the TWiT show every week. That is unless Kevin plugs it on Diggnation and then we won't see him for dust. The other possibility is that Scoble turns his tweeting down to, say, only 100 a day and then everyone that un-followed him comes back and he romps home!

posted 1 week ago

  2 jenniandboys

tomg - this is really a great question... i especially like that you made little shirts for everyone. if i cared anything about twitter, i would be all over this. in fact, it might be a candidate to try to digg (i don't want to bother submitting, but promise to digg if someone else does).

posted 1 week ago

  3 dieseldog

i know nothing about twit twitter, but the link you have posted has obama in 2nd place 5-12-08 11:47 pm est. if he wins will that cause a uproar?

posted 4 days ago

  4 nigeleccles

@dieseldog the race is just between the named Twitterers and also Obama won't win now

posted 3 days ago

  5 nigeleccles

kevinrose ups the ante. Here is his Tweet below (he is catching up):

kevinrose The new iphone is coming, I'm giving my old one to a random person following me on twitter - details coming on diggnation - tell friends!
http://twitter.com/kevinrose

posted 3 days ago

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Prediction Graph

TWiT Twitter Derby: Who'll be most followed by midnight May 25th?

Kevin Rose

Leo Laporte

Jason Calacanis

Robert Scoble

John C Dvorak

Wil Harris

Recent predictions

22 mins ago

lewisdotcom predicted Kevin Rose (H$200)

3 hours ago

sawta predicted Kevin Rose (H$400)

4 hours ago

sawta predicted Kevin Rose (H$50)

9 hours ago

nigeleccles predicted Kevin Rose (H$200)

11 hours ago

cici predicted Leo Laporte (H$100)

1 day ago

lewisdotcom predicted Kevin Rose (H$100)

1 day ago

nemesis predicted John C Dvorak (H$850)

1 day ago

wellebh predicted Kevin Rose (H$20)

1 day ago

sawta predicted Kevin Rose (H$50)

2 days ago

sirvonrohr predicted Kevin Rose (H$100)