triathematician
Who will be on top in the Gallup daily polling for the Democratic primary (5/7-5/13)?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107278/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-6Point-Lead-Over-Clinton.aspx
Background:
After a few rough weeks, Obama seems to have regained the lead in the Gallup poll. It appears that Obama had quite a victory on the N.C./Indiana night. West Virginia seems likely to go to Clinton. Will Obama regain a strong lead in the polls?
Note that these polls are three day averages, and have a 3 pt margin of error. The poll for day X is released at approximately 1pm EST on day X+1. The number used to settle this question will be the average of polling numbers dated 5/6-5/12.
Settlement details:
As reported by http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Settled
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Obama leads by 7.51 or more on average |
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Obama leads by 5.01 to 7.50 on average |
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Obama leads by 2.51 to 5.00 on average |
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Obama leads by 0.01 to 2.50 on average |
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Tie |
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Clinton leads by 0.01 to 2.50 on average |
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Clinton leads by 2.51 to 5.00 on average |
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Clinton leads by 5.01 to 7.50 on average |
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Clinton leads by 7.51 or more on average |
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Suspend date: Mon 12th May 2008 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 15th May 2008 4:58am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 12th May 2008 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 7.51 or more on average: 2%, Obama leads by 5.01 to 7.50 on average: 8%, Obama leads by 2.51 to 5.00 on average: 20%, Obama leads by 0.01 to 2.50 on average: 35%, Tie: 3%, Clinton leads by 0.01 to 2.50 on average: 20%, Clinton leads by 2.51 to 5.00 on average: 7%, Clinton leads by 5.01 to 7.50 on average: 4%, Clinton leads by 7.51 or more on average: 1%
Action history:
triathematician 
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Avg is 4.4
Should settle as 2.51-5.00
ryanj
: http://www.gallup.com/poll/107278/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-6Point-Lead-Over-Clinton.aspx
Suspend date: Mon 12th May 2008 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 15th May 2008 4:58am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 12th May 2008 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (71)
71 predictions
newsie
predicted Obama leads by 2.51 to 5.00 on average (H$100 at 60%)
kida
predicted Obama leads by 2.51 to 5.00 on average (H$20 at 58%)
smidge76
predicted Obama leads by 5.01 to 7.50 on average (H$400 at 15%)
randomkiller403
morgie
predicted Obama leads by 0.01 to 2.50 on average (H$20 at 20%)
jhouseholder
predicted Obama leads by 5.01 to 7.50 on average (H$50 at 12%)
myunion
rbrog77
bout3fitty
infobahn
predicted Obama leads by 5.01 to 7.50 on average (H$50 at 8%)Comments (0)
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