Who Will Be The Next U.K Prime Minister?

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: David Cameron: 60%, David Milliband: 15%, Nick Clegg: 5%, Other: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 7th May 2008 4:29pm PST by eponymoushero

Changed Description Fri 10th Oct 2008 4:50am PST by chris: show details

... HasGordon Brown has had a rough ride since he became PM. A poor public image, combined with a sense of flailing desperately in the face of crisis after crisis has led to a precipitous dive in Labour's poll ratings. This was compounded earlier in the year by another disastorous result in the local elections (following seton afrom precedencethe meaningloss thatof Cameron'sthe ConservativesScottish winparliament last year). If Gordo stays until the next Generalelection, and Electionloses makingit himas the polls suggest, then the next PM will almost certainly be Conservative leader David Cameron. A long shot would be a total wipeout for Labour with support moving wholesale to the third party - Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats. <br/> <br/> OrBrown's willresponses Brownto leaveissues though have often alienated his jobown beforeparty. Many appear to have been taken straight from the nextpages electionof ensuringthe thatright-wing Daily Mail. While this has not had the nextdesired PMeffect willof bestrengthening ahis Labourpopularity front-bencher? Theamongst pressthe wouldreactionary havebigot uscommunity, it believehas thatcertainly Davidled Millibandto woulda beprecipitous fall in Brown's successorpersonal popularity in the Labour Party. This has led to a steady trickle of calls for his resignation as party leader, to be replaced by a steadier pair of thehands, who Labourmembers hope would be more popular both with the party. < and the country. The leading contender for this role currently is David Milliband, though of course some other contender may pop up at any point and steal the crown - anybody for PM Mandelson?<br/> <br/> ******************************************** <br/> The final possiblity is that Brown will finally find his feet, and lead the country unscathed from the global credit crunch. He could then lead Labour to a glorious and crushing victory at the next election, remaining PM for longer than Thatcher and Blair combined, and finally ceding the position in 2050 to somebody as yet not-even-born candidate. If this happens you'll have your hubdollars tied up for an awfully long time!<br/> <br/> <div class="smallgrey">To clarify this question is ... next PM after Gordon Brown. <br/> ******************************************** .</div>

Changed Description Fri 10th Oct 2008 4:50am PST by chris: show details

... in the year by another disastorousdisastrous result in the local elections ... shot would be a total wipeoutwipe-out for Labour with support moving ... Mandelson?<br/> <br/> The final possiblitypossibility is that Brown will finally

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