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Who Will Be The Next U.K Prime Minister?

Hubdub users say: David Cameron (60% chance )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is David Cameron with a probability of 60% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Has Labour's disastorous result in the local elections set a precedence meaning that Cameron's Conservatives win the next General Election making him PM.
Or will Brown leave his job before the next election ensuring that the next PM will be a Labour front-bencher? The press would have us believe that David Milliband would be Brown's successor as leader of the Labour party.

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To clarify this question is asking who will be the next PM after Gordon Brown.
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% chance over time
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David Cameron
60%
David Milliband
15%
Nick Clegg
4%
Other
20%
Activity: H$711
Question suspends in 2 years
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: David Cameron: 60%, David Milliband: 15%, Nick Clegg: 5%, Other: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 7th May 5:29pm PDT by eponymoushero
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
2 weeks ago
lordorion predicted David Cameron (H$50)
3 weeks ago
danvers predicted David Cameron (H$100)
3 weeks ago
ciraric predicted Other (H$20)
3 weeks ago
ciraric predicted David Cameron (H$50)
3 weeks ago
davidould predicted David Cameron (H$50)
6 weeks ago
tedwinder predicted David Cameron (H$20)
8 weeks ago
gingerboi predicted David Milliband (H$50)
10 weeks ago
wojtek predicted David Cameron (H$100)
10 weeks ago
whistler predicted David Cameron (H$50)
10 weeks ago
bayoubear predicted Other (H$100)

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