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Will Google or Yahoo announce an extension of their search ad deal before the end of May?

Settled as No

VentureBeat (http://tinyurl.com/5w4r2a) and Silicon Alley Insider (http://tinyurl.com/6dps8x) are both reporting that Google is thinking of walking away from their search advertising deal with Yahoo. The limited search partnership saw Google serving ads for a small percentage of Yahoo's search ad inventory. The deal was announced by Yahoo on April 9th and was planned to last 2 weeks (http://tinyurl.com/5k53zd).

The purpose of the partnership was to give Yahoo more leverage in getting a better deal out of Microsoft. That certainly worked with Microsoft upping its offer. But now the threat of a Microsoft takeover has receded, rumors are circulating that Google is cooling on extending the partnership. According to the WSJ Google execs are divided on how much they would like to screw their new best friend.

As Henry Blodget writes:
Google is now remembering that having 85% market share in a $20 billion global market probably isn't a winning strategy for keeping regulators happy. Far better to keep one foot on Yahoo's throat and the other on the defibrillator paddles, so you can always say, "See, we have a real live competitor here! It moved an hour ago. We swear!"
 
% chance over time
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
7%
No
93%
Activity: H$54,244
Settled as No on Sun 1st Jun 11:43am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sun 1st Jun 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Sun 1st Jun 11:43am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 1st Jun 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 8th May 2:43am PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
Suspended Sun 1st Jun 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 1st Jun 1:21am PDT by orlin: No
Settled as 'No' Sun 1st Jun 11:43am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions

11 weeks ago
landerson predicted No (H$50 at 93%)
11 weeks ago
dxmitche predicted No (H$1,000 at 90%)
11 weeks ago
rooooo predicted No (H$1,000 at 90%)
11 weeks ago
erikt predicted No (H$1,270 at 89%)
11 weeks ago
sirvonrohr predicted Yes (H$20 at 11%)
more

Comments

  1 markov
Great question and background info! This is too close to call right now.
posted 14 weeks ago
http://mashable.com/2008/05/09/who-woulda-thunk-it-google-still-wants-deal-with-yahoo/

Brin and Schmidt seem to still want to be friends with Yahoo. Not, clear if this turns into a deal though.
posted 14 weeks ago
  3 erikt
Yahoo won't agree to anything with Google while it's talking with Microsoft again...
This one is easy money.
posted 12 weeks ago

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