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When will the price of oil drop below $100 a barrel?

Current forecast: Price of Oil is not below $100 before 12/31/08 (66% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Price of Oil is not below $100 before 12/31/08 with a probability of 66% (unchanged in last 1 day)

"Fifty-five percent of 372 petroleum industry executives surveyed by KPMG LLP said they think the price of a barrel of crude will drop below $100 by the end of the year. " http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24528475/

When will the price of a barrel of oil (light, sweet crude) first drop below $100.00 a barrel?
 
Forecast history, %
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Price of Oil is below $100 by July 31
2%
Price of Oil is below $100 between 8/1 & 9/30
18%
Price of Oil is below $100 between 10/1 & 11/30
10%
Price of Oil is below $100 between 12/1 & 12/31
5%
Price of Oil is not below $100 before 12/31/08
66%
Activity: H$24,528
Question suspends in 16 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Price of Oil is below $100 by July 31: 10%, Price of Oil is below $100 between 8/1 & 9/30 : 15%, Price of Oil is below $100 between 10/1 & 11/30 : 20%, Price of Oil is below $100 between 12/1 & 12/31 : 20%, Price of Oil is not below $100 before 12/31/08 : 35%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th May 8:02am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (102)

102 predictions

1 day ago
dragon01 predicted Price of Oil is below $100 between 8/1 & 9/30 (H$20 at 19%)
1 day ago
dragon01 predicted Price of Oil is below $100 between 8/1 & 9/30 (H$20 at 18%)
2 days ago
hippyboomer predicted Price of Oil is below $100 between 10/1 & 11/30 (H$50 at 10%)
2 days ago
hippyboomer predicted Price of Oil is below $100 between 8/1 & 9/30 (H$100 at 18%)
2 days ago
bobdevine predicted Price of Oil is below $100 between 8/1 & 9/30 (H$50 at 16%)
more

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