Created Fri 9th May 8:16am PDT by

punditwatch [Admin]

All questions » Entertainment » TV Shows »

Will Katherine Heigl Leave 'Grey's Anatomy' by August?

Settled as No

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25709450/

Background:

From dlisted.com:

Katherine Heigl...Heigl...Heeeigl. You know, every time I say her last name, it feels like I'm hawking up a loogie. That's pretty fitting since she looks like one. Anyway, our first lady of loogies might leave "Grey's Anatomy." A source told UsWeekly (via MSNBC) that loogie is getting tired of that shit.

The source said, “She's working really long hours and is ready to move on." Loogie is currently locked in a contract, but is trying to find a way out. She wants to leave the show, so she can focus on her movie career. We know how that works. In a couple of years, she'll be begging to play Tracey Gold's sister in a Lifetime movie.

One insider said it was smart for her ass to make movies while she's still on Grey's. The insider said, “She’s a smart one. She saw what can happen with someone like Jennifer Aniston, who was crazy successful on TV, but can’t seem to carry a film, and she tested the waters early."

Heigl should move on already. A talent like her belongs on the stage. I hear Mars has a pretty amazing theater scene.

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Yes

30%

70%

Activity: H$83,995

Settled as No on Thu 17th Jul 11:01am PDT

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Fri 1st Aug 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Thu 17th Jul 11:01am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 16th Jul 3:30pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 80%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th May 8:16am PDT by

punditwatch [Admin]

Settlement requested Thu 17th Jul 9:53am PDT by

rbrog77: I think this should be settled...at least according to this news article

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25709450/

Suspended Thu 17th Jul 10:47am PDT by

destry [Admin]

: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending settlement consideration.

Settled as 'No' Thu 17th Jul 11:01am PDT by

tisha

: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25709450/

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Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

Predictions (96)

96 predictions

7 weeks ago

julemister predicted No (H$20 at 90%)

7 weeks ago

rbrog77 predicted No (H$7,000 at 88%)

7 weeks ago

rbrog77 predicted No (H$2,000 at 85%)

7 weeks ago

robmar predicted No (H$1,000 at 71%)

7 weeks ago

sweet_baby_rye predicted Yes (H$50 at 29%)

Comments (7)

natsthename

By August when? August 1 or August 31?

posted 7 weeks ago

natsthename

Oops, can that one, I didn't click to see the suspend date. NEED more coffee this morning, sorry!

posted 7 weeks ago

robmar

What? This definitely can't be settled yet (is it August?). Yes, I read the story that says she's planning on staying. So? That's one story that was reported. If markets are settled based on predictions and statements about the future we'd have a huge problem (people change their minds, inaccurate stories are published all the time, etc.). Markets should be settled when an event either happens or doesn't happen, not when someone says something will or will not happen. So what should have happened after the story yesterday? More people predict 'no' and people who had already predicted 'yes' might think about cashing in. That's what we do here- people get more information and update their positions. Markets fluctuate. The way I see it this has two ways of settling: 1) Heigl leaves the show before August 2) it's August and Heigl hasn't left the show. Neither of those has happened.

posted 7 weeks ago

tisha

Hi Robmar - thanks, that's a valid argument and a common issue that we have with settlement questions. We settle on the 99.9% rule - usually if an announcement comes up that means something has a 99.9% chance of occurring, we will settle it even if the actual event hasn't occurred yet. This is in The Rules at 2.2.6, and is the case mainly because where markets are sitting at 99 for a long time before it can be settled, people effectively have their money tied up, will cash out to bet on other things, and the market ends up being less accurate.

There are numerous news stories that Heigl is staying, and the reports have not been based on mere rumour or reports but are from an ABC exec source. Of course, it hasn't happened yet so if Heigl does somehow leave the show before August, we have the option of resettling and both options will be paid out.

posted 7 weeks ago

robmar

Tisha- thanks for the quick response. That makes a lot of sense and I'm glad to know what the rule is for this kind of situation.

I would argue though that I don't think the 99.9% rule could be applied to this question. Trust me, if the odds here were sitting at 99% 'No' I would be wagering on 'Yes'. If I had to throw out a number I'd say 90% which does leave some room to play on the 'Yes' side of things. I guess I just would like to see the rule only applied if it really is a sure thing and I don't think this market is at that point.

posted 7 weeks ago

philphan1

I agree TOTALLY with robmar! This question should NOT be settled yet.

posted 7 weeks ago

tisha

Hi Robmar - thanks again for your comments. I do think this one was borderline, and you are always going to get cases that are disputed - trust me, if I opened up this question now there would be an equal backlash against this decision.

I'd suggest you create another market about the issues of this question, where you can test out Hubdub's 99.9% rule ;-)

posted 7 weeks ago