What will be the margin of victory in the Oregon Democratic Presidential Primary (5/20)?
Oregon is expected to go to Barack.. but things don't always go as we expect!
http://www.pollster.com/08-OR-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
Settled
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Barack wins by 20% or more |
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Barack wins by at least 15% but less than 20% |
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Barack wins by at least 10% but less than 15% |
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Barack wins by at least 5% but less than 10% |
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Barack wins by less than 5% |
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Hillary wins by less than 5% |
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Hillary wins by at least 5% but less than 10% |
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Hillary wins by 10% or more |
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Settlement details:
Difference in percentage of popular vote between Hillary and Barack.
Settlement source: CNN
Suspend date: Tue 20th May 8pm PDT
Settlement date: Thu 22nd May 9:58am PDT
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 8pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
Barack wins by 20% or more: 2%, Barack wins by at least 15% but less than 20%: 8%, Barack wins by at least 10% but less than 15%: 20%, Barack wins by at least 5% but less than 10%: 30%, Barack wins by less than 5%: 20%, Hillary wins by less than 5%: 10%, Hillary wins by at least 5% but less than 10%: 8%, Hillary wins by 10% or more: 2%
Action history:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=OR
Settlement details: Difference in percentage of popular vote between Hillary and Barack. ... read all
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111 settled, 11 voided







Hillary Clinton 250,044 votes (40.78%)
Barack Obama 357,917 votes (58.37%)
Write In Votes 5,221 votes (00.85%)
Total Votes 613,182 100% Counted
Barrack - Clinton = 17.59% Victory for Obama as I see it.
Now for the bad news. These results are still marked as unofficial.
https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToElectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view
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