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What will be the margin of victory in the Oregon Democratic Presidential Primary (5/20)?

Settled as Barack wins by at least 15% but less than 20%

(Revised)

Oregon is expected to go to Barack.. but things don't always go as we expect!

http://www.pollster.com/08-OR-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
 
% chance over time
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Settled

Barack wins by 20% or more
7%
Barack wins by at least 15% but less than 20%
13%
Barack wins by at least 10% but less than 15%
41%
Barack wins by at least 5% but less than 10%
31%
Barack wins by less than 5%
5%
Hillary wins by less than 5%
2%
Hillary wins by at least 5% but less than 10%
1%
Hillary wins by 10% or more
0%
Activity: H$18,691
Settled as Barack wins by at least 15% but less than 20% on Thu 22nd May 9:58am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: Difference in percentage of popular vote between Hillary and Barack.

Settlement source: CNN

Suspend date: Tue 20th May 8pm PDT

Settlement date: Thu 22nd May 9:58am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 8pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Barack wins by 20% or more: 2%, Barack wins by at least 15% but less than 20%: 8%, Barack wins by at least 10% but less than 15%: 20%, Barack wins by at least 5% but less than 10%: 30%, Barack wins by less than 5%: 20%, Hillary wins by less than 5%: 10%, Hillary wins by at least 5% but less than 10%: 8%, Hillary wins by 10% or more: 2%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th May 8:49am PDT by jenniandboys[Power User]
Suspended Tue 20th May 8pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 20th May 8:01pm PDT by markov: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToElectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view
Settlement requested Wed 21st May 12:23pm PDT by coolkraft: where is my settlement
Settlement requested Wed 21st May 3:24pm PDT by coolkraft: I WANT SETTLEMENT OF MY PREDICTION,,THE OREGON RESULTS ARE OUT AND IN THE 15-20% RANGE
Settlement requested Wed 21st May 7:48pm PDT by jenniandboys[Power User]: At 99% reporting, the difference is 18%. Now safe to settle as 15-20%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=OR
Settled as 'Barack wins by at least 15% but less than 20%' Thu 22nd May 9:58am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OR
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: Difference in percentage of popular vote between Hillary and Barack. ... read all

 
9 weeks ago
migster40 predicted Barack wins by at least 5% but less than 10% (H$260)
9 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted Hillary wins by less than 5% (H$49)
9 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted Barack wins by less than 5% (H$100)
9 weeks ago
hqrod predicted Barack wins by at least 5% but less than 10% (H$500)
9 weeks ago
stealthman predicted Barack wins by at least 5% but less than 10% (H$200)
9 weeks ago
thepeoplegeek predicted Barack wins by at least 15% but less than 20% (H$50)
9 weeks ago
thepeoplegeek predicted Barack wins by 20% or more (H$100)
9 weeks ago
archer1267 predicted Barack wins by 20% or more (H$50)
9 weeks ago
ksleher predicted Barack wins by at least 10% but less than 15% (H$500)
9 weeks ago
gloomy50 predicted Barack wins by at least 5% but less than 10% (H$50)
  1 coolkraft
why does it take so long to pay when these questions are suspended and the results are apparent...this is ongoing with hubdub
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 coolkraft
3 pm florida time and still nothing about the oregon primary result questions being counted...what is the point of betting
posted 9 weeks ago
  3 coolkraft
6 pm no results...time to get rid of hubdub and go to another prediction site
posted 9 weeks ago
1PM Oregon time. 5% of the State has not been counted yet, 17.4% margin officially now. Too soon to leave negative feedback.
posted 9 weeks ago
  5 coolkraft
they are slow counters 8 PM fl time no results....joke
posted 9 weeks ago
The smart guy was sick so the other guy is counting alone.
posted 9 weeks ago
  7 markov
Unfortunately, many state governments are extremely inefficient. It appears Oregon falls into the category. It's frustrating as hell, but if you don't live in Oregon there is not much you can do about it. Worse yet, if you do live in Oregon there probably still isn't much you can do about it. Welcome to the world of Jay-Walkers occupying high places because their intellectually challenged brethren allow them to do so.
posted 9 weeks ago
At 4:58PM on May 21st Pacific Daylight time the Oregon Secretary of States Office reported.. 2 minutes before going home for the night..
Hillary Clinton 250,044 votes (40.78%)
Barack Obama 357,917 votes (58.37%)
Write In Votes 5,221 votes (00.85%)
Total Votes 613,182 100% Counted

Barrack - Clinton = 17.59% Victory for Obama as I see it.

Now for the bad news. These results are still marked as unofficial.

https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToElectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view
posted 8 weeks ago
  9 coolkraft
wow....thursday am...I guess NO Results ever..what a joke
posted 8 weeks ago
  10 coolkraft
you would think hubdub would explain this...thank you people geek for an explanation
posted 8 weeks ago
  11 destry[Power User]
Well the slow results filtering in are not the fault of Hubdub. The category editor is simply waiting for the results to reach 100% of precincts reporting. There are many counties not at 100%, one as low as 50%, so while fast settlement would be nice, it is better to settle when the final tally comes in rather than settling one way now, and then having to resettle if the outstanding results push the percentages out of this range.
posted 8 weeks ago
  12 coolkraft
I just said they should explain the slow results destry
posted 8 weeks ago
  13 destry[Power User]
Well I think you are seeing the results of making errors in the past and making sure that markets are decided before being settled. I agree that I don't think the outstanding results will push the percentages out of the range, I dont think there is any harm in leaving the money in this question until the results are 100% reported. Normally Hubdub doesn't wait for certified state results before settling, just having CNN say results are 100% reported usually is enough. I imagine if there is super close race and a recount could change the results the wait would be even longer. These election questions sometimes run longer than we would like. Imagine wagering on the presidential race back in 2000 and having to wait that long for results to be in. I'd hate to have money tied up that long, but know that these questions don't always settle immediately.
posted 8 weeks ago
  14 coolkraft
well I think hubdub should have plainly just said they are still awaiting the results...that is all .............
posted 8 weeks ago

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