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Will Israel launch an attack against Iran before Jan 20th 2009?
Current forecast: Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09 (95% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09 with a probability of 95% (unchanged in last 1 day)
Israel is increasingly concerned about Iran and the possible develop of nuclear weapons and other arms shipments to Hizbullah and other groups. Right now they have a very friendly administration with Bush in the White House, so will they take any actions against Iran before he leaves office, particularly if Obama or Clinton wins the presidential race in November?
http://www.newsweek.com/id/136065
An attack would mean any form of military action which results in deaths or destruction of any buildings, including bombings or attacks by air, missile attacks, or other engagements.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/136065
An attack would mean any form of military action which results in deaths or destruction of any buildings, including bombings or attacks by air, missile attacks, or other engagements.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Israel launches an attack prior to 11/01/08 |
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Israel launches an attack between 11/01 & 12/31 |
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Israel launches an attack between 12/31 & 1/20/09 |
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Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09 |
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Activity: H$83,239
Question suspends in 1 week
Suspend date: Mon 19th Jan 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
Initial likelihoods: Israel launches an attack prior to 11/01/08: 15%, Israel launches an attack between 11/01 & 12/31: 25%, Israel launches an attack between 12/31 & 1/20/09: 20%, Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09: 40%
Action history:
Suspend date: Mon 19th Jan 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
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Get widget!Predictions (176)
176 predictions
proudisraeli
predicted Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09 (H$100 at 95%)
shackleford
predicted Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09 (H$20 at 94%)
ravidor
predicted Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09 (H$100 at 90%)
predicted Israel launches an attack between 12/31 & 1/20/09 (H$50 at 7%)
predicted Israel launches an attack between 12/31 & 1/20/09 (H$50 at 8%)
predicted Israel launches an attack between 12/31 & 1/20/09 (H$50 at 7%)
predicted Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09 (H$50 at 89%)
joaoxxx
predicted Israel launches an attack prior to 11/01/08 (H$20 at 0%)
bgrigore
predicted Israel does not attack Iran before 1/20/09 (H$20 at 80%)Comments (7)
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score: 10
International Herald Tribune 1 week ago
LI-ON, Israel: Many Israelis feel that the walls - and history - are closing in on their 60-year-old state, much as they felt in early June 1967, just before Israel launched the
score: 10
MSNBC Newsweek 1 week ago
that Israeli adviser argued to me in a session in Washington, neither party to the 60-year conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has given its full support to either outcome. Each side has held back from commitment either to a negotiated
score: 10
Jerusalem Post 1 week ago
the many negative consequences of the Second Lebanon War in summer 2006 was the distraction it provided from Iran's nuclear program. So focused was the international community on 34 days of fighting, and so inarticulate was Israel in explaining that it
score: 10
UPI 2 weeks ago
during combat duty near Moscow. According to intelligence officials familiar with the defense capabilities of the S-300, the missile system would effectively rule out an Israeli war against Iran. (TASS via Newscom) TOOLBAR Add Comments JERUSALEM --
score: 10
Globe and Mail 2 weeks ago
on this exclusively. He will also have to contend with an array of foreign policy challenges. Of these, Iran and its nuclear program may well constitute the Obama administration's first foreign policy crisis. The reason is simple. Iran is well down the
New in World » Middle East
Friday, July 11, 2008 Israel Today Staff
Israeli warplanes taking up position in Iraq?
Iraqi Defense Ministry officials told local media on Friday that Israeli warplanes operating out of a US airbase are conducting exercises in their country for a possible strike on neighboring Iran.
According to the sources, the Israeli planes enter Iraq via Jordanian airspace during the night, and then land at a US military base near the Iraqi city of Hadita.
If Israel ultimately decides to launch a aerial strike against Iran's main uranium enrichment facility, taking off from Hadita would cut the flight time to the target down to about five minutes.
Israeli media was unable to verify the Iraqi report, but Israeli officials have admitted in recent weeks to conducting military maneuvers in preparation for a possible strike on Iran, including a major air force exercise over Greece last month.
In response to the Israeli maneuvers, and a parallel US military exercise also believed to in preparation for conflict with Iran, the Islamic Republic this week launched it own massive training exercise. The Iranian maneuvers consisted primarily of testing its long-range ballistic missiles, which Tehran has threatened to unleash against Israel's population centers if a strike is launched against its nuclear facilities.
Israeli defense experts later called Iran's bluff, explaining that based on the photos Iran so proudly distributed to the international media, it was fairly clear that the Islamic Republic is in fact not in possession of a large arsenal of weapons that can reach the Jewish state.
Iran claimed that it had tested a new version of its Shihab-3 missile with an improved range capable of hitting any target in Israel. But the Israelis said the missiles shown in the photos are the old version of the Shihab-3, which has a maximum range just short of the Jewish state.
Furthermore, the older Shihab-3 missiles use a liquid fuel, making them far easier to detect and destroy prior to launch.
In another apparent sign that the situation could be set to escalate significantly, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is scheduled to fly to the US on Monday for a series of meetings at the Pentagon. Barak's visit comes hot on the heels of a Mossad chief Meir Dagan's trip to Washington earlier this week.
Sunday, July 13, 2008 Israel Today Staff
Bush gives Israel tentative 'OK' to strike Iran
US President George W. Bush has given Israel the go-ahead to draw up a full plan of attack to take out Iran's main nuclear facilities and to present it to him for final approval, according to a senior Pentagon official who spokes to London's Sunday Times.
The official said the president had given Israel an "amber light," explaining that "amber means get on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us when you're ready."
Israeli officials who had previously admitted to preparing for a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities said that such an attack would be impossible without a green light from Washington, as Israeli planes would need to travel through US-controlled Iraqi airspace. Israel would also need America's assistance in dealing with the diplomatic aftermath.
The Pentagon source said that the Bush Administration had already determined not to attack Iran, but noted that "the president is really preoccupied with the nuclear threat against Israel and I know he doesn't believe that anything but force will deter Iran."
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is scheduled to travel to the US on Monday where he will meet with various Pentagon officials to discuss how best to handle the Iran threat.
An aide to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Saturday that if an attack is launched on his country's nuclear facilities, Iran will "destroy" Israel and 32 American military bases across the Middle East.
"If Israel and the US fire a bullet or a missile at Iran, its forces will attack the heart of Israel and 32 American bases in the region before the dust from such an attack has settled," Mojtaba Zolnour, Khameini's deputy representative in the Revolutionary Guards, told Iran's Fars news agency.
Iran last week held what it called a major test of its improved medium-range missile arsenal, indicating that it possessed the means to launch a substantial counter-strike against Israel.
However, Israeli and Western analysts who examined the missile test photographs so proudly distributed by Iran noted that they had been doctored. The Israelis further noted that the missiles in the photos appeared to be Iran's older Shihab-3 missiles, which are not capable of hitting Israel. The affair called into question Iran's ability to actually retaliate against Israel in the event of an aerial assault on its nuclear facilities.
Thanks for keeping us up to date lucidstates.
http://www.magicvalley.com/articles/2008/08/07/ap/international/d92dcto80.txt
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