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Will Barack Obama help pay off Hillary Clinton's election debts?

Settled as Yes

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/politics&id=6226171

Background:

campaign debts


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Pay Off: Raising money to pay off Mrs. Clinton's debts or in some other way paying off Clinton's debts, for example taking money out of his own campaign coffers.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
53%
No
47%
Activity: H$104,022
Settled as Yes on Wed 25th Jun 2008 9:03am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 25th Jun 2008 9:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 24th Jun 2008 7:50pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th May 2008 10:32am PDT by coolkraft
Clarified Sat 10th May 2008 2:54am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Clarified settlement details: Pay Off: Raising money to pay off Mrs. Clinton's debts or in some other way paying off Clinton's debts, for example taking money out of his own campaign coffers.
Settlement requested Wed 18th Jun 2008 11:05am PDT by jamalpeter: Is this close to the Spitzer rule? A public acknowledgement of a thing yet to come?

First of the joint fundraisers between Clinton and Obama is scheduled for next week. Future events should benefit Clinton's campaign. Source: New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/18/us/politics/18clinton.html?ref=politics

"The fund-raiser next week in Washington will benefit Mr. Obama’s campaign, but aides to both senators said it would probably be the first of several events, including some to help Mrs. Clinton retire her debt through new contributions from Mr. Obama’s supporters."
Clarified Wed 18th Jun 2008 12:13pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Since in the market question no settlement by date is written I've extended the market end date till the election.
Settlement requested Tue 24th Jun 2008 10:48pm PDT by thepeoplegeekllc: "Pay Off: Raising money to pay off Mrs. Clinton's debts or in some other way paying off Clinton's debts"
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/06/24/politics/fromtheroad/entry4206725.shtml

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h6WUt_8GLZ6ykG12aW1_0nebPXkQD91GS84O2


Suspended Wed 25th Jun 2008 6:39am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Wed 25th Jun 2008 6:39am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]:
It looks to me like maybe this can settle...

<http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h6WUt_8GLZ6ykG12aW1_0nebPXkQD91H3BI00>

Need to find 1st article to void late predictions (see comment #25).
(market suspended)
Settled as 'Yes' Wed 25th Jun 2008 9:03am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/politics&id=6226171

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 25th Jun 2008 9:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 24th Jun 2008 7:50pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (192)

192 predictions

28 weeks ago
coolkraft predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 86%)
28 weeks ago
sliq50 predicted Yes (H$100 at 86%)
28 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Yes (H$500 at 86%)
28 weeks ago
schenz predicted No (H$20 at 25%)
28 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Yes (H$20 at 75%)
more

Comments (29)

Hey coolcraft, I know there is a limit of just 90 characters, but it would be even more fascinating to have some options like... in an apparent quid pro quo for endorsement, or following joining the ticket as VP candidate or something like that.
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 coolkraft
you honestly think she would endorse him.... and I doubt he will pick her for his VP...he and I will be happy to simply get rid of her
posted 34 weeks ago
So if you don't think she will endorse or be his VP pick, what possible reason is there for him to pay off her campaign debts?? I don't get it. It seems like initial odds should be like .0000000001% yes, not 50%. Is there some reason to think he would offer to do that?
posted 34 weeks ago
  4 coolkraft
I think the only way to get rid of her is to pay her off...the superdelegates have not got the moxie to get rid of her .... the Clintons never spend their own money on anything and I think she wants her debts paid off...but I do not think he will pay her debts but I believe that is what she wants
posted 34 weeks ago
GREAT QUESTION!!! The advantage of "paying her off" (probably some significant amount less than her total debt) is that it might cost less than fighting her to the end. It would also lessen the possibility of the Clintons finding more skeletons in his closet. It would also allow him to focus his time and resources planning for the general election.

I'm wagering "NO" but this is certainly a fascinating idea.
posted 34 weeks ago
HOLY COW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/obama-wont-rule-out-easing-clinton-campaign-debt/
posted 34 weeks ago
"Speculation has spread – by supporters of both candidates – about whether Mr. Obama throwing a financial lifeline would help bridge the divide between the partisans and offer Mrs. Clinton an exit strategy."
posted 34 weeks ago
  8 destry[Admin]
Jenni I agree with your assessment that the likilihoods are way off. First the way the question is worded makes it seem as if Obama would pay them himself, which is not possible. So as far as that is concerned the chances are 0%. Now if the question was whether he would help her raise money to pay off the debts, that would be more like a 5% chance. I think the question needs voided for several reasons. Initial starting odds were way off. The question wording makes impossible for one of the options to occur.
posted 34 weeks ago
  9 owl1
The question is perfect. This is done all the time, it just doesn't usually hit the press.
posted 34 weeks ago
  10 owl1
I'm betting a big yes.
posted 34 weeks ago
  11 dieseldog
i'm in the camp of this question is plain wacky, and the odds shoulda been differnt to begin with. i'm guessing owl1 has been invovled in getting many major-national canidates elected. he says.."This is done all the time, it just doesn't usually hit the press" must have first hand knowledge. goodluck all betters.
posted 34 weeks ago
  13 ryanj[Admin]

From recent campaign history this practice seems to happen very often. Also allot more pundits are talking about the possibility of this. 50% odds are kind of high (I would have given 40%), but its common practice, and with dwindling pundit and superdelegate support this is fair. I do agree though that the market needs some clarification, I'll add in some more settlement details so that the market is clearer.

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 34 weeks ago
  14 bitakarma
Question.... does it his efforts to help have to pay off all of the debt or just a percentage? If just a percentage is given, is there a cut off level where the question would be answered no? For example he shows up at one fund raiser and raises 20% of the total debt would that be considered a YES?
posted 34 weeks ago
great picture!
posted 34 weeks ago
  16 ironman288
I can only hope Obama wins the nomination, it will be WAY easier for McCain that way. Over the past few weeks I've even started to like Clinton's stance on a few things, and I never thought I'd see the day...
posted 34 weeks ago
  17 coolkraft
no one I know is voting for McCain...and everyone I know hates Clinton...a different view than yours
posted 34 weeks ago
  18 Erik
Hmmmm....McCain vs. socialism...is it really a tough call?
posted 34 weeks ago
  19 owl1
Hmm McCain = corporate Socialism, not a tough call at all.
posted 34 weeks ago
  20 mrperfkt[Admin]
In the news today...

"That is a normal thing when a candidate finishes a race and loses, the winning candidate would try to help if there's some debt that's been incurred,"

However, the same article says that by law, Obama can't write a large check to her, but his donors can help. So, if it is Obama's donors or the democratic party that constitute a "yes" that Obama helped?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080513/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_debt
posted 34 weeks ago
  21 jamalpeter
One way to help her pay off her debt is to sponsor a fundraiser- dinner or breakfast typically - where she will be the featured speaker. This could totally happen with her speaking on healthcare. It's not that he's actually paying money to her, he's lending his drawing power to her own to get her a paying audience. She headlines, speaks about the importance of healthcare, education, etc. and introduces him. Or he introduces her. Either way, he's lending his personality to get her a paying audience.

I don't know if the coolkraft was thinking this way when he authored the question... or whether it's a legitimate way to settle the market... but it's definitely not out of the question, and very much in the realm of possibility.

jamalpeter (Wash. D.C.)
posted 30 weeks ago
  22 coolkraft
coolkraft is a she.....
posted 30 weeks ago
  23 jamalpeter
My apologies to you, Coolkraft. -Jamal
posted 30 weeks ago
  24 coolkraft
no problem jamal,,u had no way of knowing
posted 28 weeks ago
  25 coolkraft
I do not know how to get the quoted news on here... Ben Smith of Politico said Obama asked his top donors to help Clinton retire 10 million of campaign debt. Obama said if folks are inclined they ought to give what they could...and of course (my thought) Clinton will happily and enthusiastically campaign for Obama...not too sure about Bill Clinton tho...he is still smarting
posted 28 weeks ago
  26 coolkraft
so to my question Obama is helping Hillary pay off her debts....
posted 28 weeks ago
@ coolkraft -- what you do is copy the url from the major mainstream news source you read/found, then click on the "Request Settlement" link (under the "Yes/No" above), and paste that url (link) into the "settlement request" box -- along with a few words indicating the outcome you think your news article supports.

BTW, you can also copy/paste a news article url into questions you create -- which will provide background info for other users to easily find, as well as, hopefully, give support to the starting odds you have selected for your question.

If any of this isn't clear, just ask, and someone will try to assist by explaining it differently ;-)
posted 28 weeks ago
I submitted a couple of sources. We should be hearing "YES" soon.
posted 28 weeks ago
  29 coolkraft
thank you newswrangler...appreciate your help
posted 28 weeks ago

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