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Mystery Illness - How many passangers will be killed?

Voided

Sadly, this has to be voided since the death turned out to be non-disease related. On the bright side, the train is on its way and there is no epidemic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7393500.stm

Background:

May 9, 2008 1:51 p.m. EST

Linda Young - AHN Editor

Ottawa, Canada (AHN) - A mystery illness aboard a Canadian train prompted officials to quarantine the train after one person died and as many as 10 others became sick with a flu like illness.

The Via Rail passenger train was headed to Toronto from Vancouver

Some 265 passengers were left on the train, which is parked at a station that has been evacuated.

No one is being allowed on the train without protective gear.
(http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7010902665)

More details:
http://in.reuters.com/article/healthNewsMolt/idINN0948513220080509

How many of the passengers will be killed by this illness in total, either on the train, or in hospital?

Question settles when the train is deblocked, and all passengers are released from the quarantine and from hospitals.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

1
50%
2
30%
3
15%
more than 3
5%
Voided Sat 10th May 2008 5:58am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 16th May 2008 4:59pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: 1: 50%, 2: 30%, 3: 15%, more than 3: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th May 2008 1:18pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Settlement requested Sat 10th May 2008 5:12am PDT by orlin: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7393500.stm
Suspended Sat 10th May 2008 5:25am PDT by diana: Discussing settlement procedure based on the following article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7393500.stm
Voided Sat 10th May 2008 5:58am PDT by diana: Sadly, this has to be voided since the death turned out to be non-disease related. On the bright side, the train is on its way and there is no epidemic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7393500.stm

Suspend date: Fri 16th May 2008 4:59pm PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (28)

28 predictions

34 weeks ago
ryanj[Admin] predicted more than 3 (H$20 at 1%)
34 weeks ago
ryanj[Admin] predicted 3 (H$20 at 1%)
34 weeks ago
ryanj[Admin] predicted 2 (H$20 at 2%)
34 weeks ago
steph predicted more than 3 (H$50 at 1%)
34 weeks ago
steph predicted 3 (H$50 at 4%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 diana
This is nuts---I predict some lawsuit markets to be made in connection with this.
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 randburg
The question is:
"How many of the passengers will be killed by this illness in total, either on the train, or in hospital?"

The answer was clearly: ONE. What is the problem here and why was this question voided? There was always a doubt from the beginning of this prediction as to whether there was or was not a "mystery illness" and whether or not the illnesses were related. That was in the news clippings cited as a part of the history of the question. Why was the question voided? It is my opinion that hubdub has made a mistake on this one and should settle the question as ONE PASSENGER died.

posted 34 weeks ago
  3 randburg
We get notices for ALL SETTLEMENTS, whether you win or lose -- which is appreciated by all -- but there is NEVER a notice for a VOID. They disappear in thin air, and it is up to us to try to find them...

Somehow I have had to put up with four voids in the last 24 hours. I understand that voids are sometimes necessary and I am still scratching my head on some of these. Reasons for voiding these questions are getting increasingly fussy. There are NO notices for any of these voids. I am tired of guessing where good hubdub prediction money is going....
posted 34 weeks ago

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