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Will any islands today linked to other countries change sovereignty status in Q3-Q4 08?

Suspended

Suspend date reached

Background:

Source was US State Dept of State's Website entitled: Dependencies and Areas of Special Sovereignty. By my count there are about 58 islands that currently have a sovereignty relationship with another country.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Suspended

No change in sovereignty status for any of group
89%
Between 1 and 3 islands change sovereignty status
6%
Between 3 and 5 islands change sovereignty status
2%
Any other outcome
2%
Activity: H$7,759
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Fri 26th Dec 2008 3:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: No change in sovereignty status for any of group: 80%, Between 1 and 3 islands change sovereignty status: 10%, Between 3 and 5 islands change sovereignty status: 5%, Any other outcome: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 10th May 2008 10:10am PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Tue 30th Sep 2008 4:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Sun 5th Oct 2008 8:53pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-09-30 15:59:00"
Unsuspended Sun 5th Oct 2008 8:56pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Suspend date moved to late December. See comment section for details.
Suspended Fri 26th Dec 2008 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested last Monday 1:30pm PST by jeopardy: end of Q4 08 has passed

Suspend date: Fri 26th Dec 2008 3:59pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (52)

52 predictions

1 week ago
fellcolor predicted No change in sovereignty status for any of group (H$2,150 at 86%)
1 week ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted No change in sovereignty status for any of group (H$20 at 83%)

Comments (10)

"Hill, 65, has lived in the Shetland Islands on the edge of the Atlantic since 2001, when his boat capsized there during an unsuccessful attempted to circumnavigate Britain.

"He is Forvik's only resident, and his home is a tent on the storm-battered island. He says on his website that he plans to create Forvik's own currency -- the "gulde" -- print his own stamps and raise his own flag."


I wonder if he has a long extension cord, or a boat load of batteries to power his computer ...
posted 28 weeks ago
Windmill perhaps?
posted 28 weeks ago
Question re-opened to run until late December. This is to meet the requirements of the 7 day rule, which sets 1 week as the maximum allowed difference between suspend date and the expected settlement date.
posted 13 weeks ago
  5 kirin
Would a "yes" in the Greenland referendum qualify as a change in sovereignty?
http://www.hubdub.com/m21073/Will_Greenland_vote_for_greater_autonomy_in_the_November_25th_referendum
posted 8 weeks ago
  6 hect0r
Greenland has voted for greater autonomy, so I would get all my money out of the "no change" choice.
posted 5 weeks ago
  7 hect0r
Does the question ask if any islands will become independent, or just have greater autonomy.
posted 5 weeks ago
@hect0r: it seems the question asks if the status will change as listed in the "US State Dept of State's Website entitled: Dependencies and Areas of Special Sovereignty" which looks to be this link:
http://www.state.gov/www/regions/dependencies.html
posted 4 weeks ago
  9 hect0r
So, will any islands change their name, Long-form name, country that they are dependent on, FIPS code, or capital?
Is that what the question asks?
posted 4 weeks ago
#8 looks like a reasonable metric to me.
posted 1 week ago

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