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How many of these 14 landlocked countries will have a new Head of State July 1 - Dec 31 08 ?
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Suspend date reached
Background:
These are the 14 countries: Bolivia, Botswana, Burundi, Central African Republic, Laos, Lesotho, Malawi, Mali, Paraguay, Rwanda, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Clarification: This question previously referred to these countries all being in the Southern Hemisphere, which they are not. So the question text has been slightly changed, although the list of countries has not. The question is effectively identical to its prior form. The September suspend date, however, has been extended until mid-December, to more closely match the expected settlement date.
Clarification: This question previously referred to these countries all being in the Southern Hemisphere, which they are not. So the question text has been slightly changed, although the list of countries has not. The question is effectively identical to its prior form. The September suspend date, however, has been extended until mid-December, to more closely match the expected settlement date.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspended
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None will have a new head of state Q3 or Q4 2008 |
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1, 2 or 3 countries will have new head of state |
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4, 5 or 6 countries will have new head of state |
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7, 8 or 9 countries will have new head of state |
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10, 11 or 12 countries will have new head of state |
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13 or all 14 countries will have new head of state |
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Activity: H$13,179
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended
Suspend date: Wed 17th Dec 2008 7:59am PST
Initial likelihoods: None will have a new head of state Q3 or Q4 2008: 5%, 1, 2 or 3 countries will have new head of state: 20%, 4, 5 or 6 countries will have new head of state : 35%, 7, 8 or 9 countries will have new head of state: 20%, 10, 11 or 12 countries will have new head of state: 15%, 13 or all 14 countries will have new head of state: 5%
Action history:
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 2008 12:51pm PDT by 
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Awaiting clarification regarding the fact 3 of these countries are entirely in the Northern Hemisphere.
infernalmachine: Awaiting clarification regarding the fact 3 of these countries are entirely in the Northern Hemisphere.
Unsuspended Mon 1st Sep 2008 7:10pm PDT by infernalmachine: Question text changed to accomodate the fact that not all these countries are in the Southern Hemisphere (as previously claimed). The 14 countries are unchanged, so this question remains identical (functionally) to its previous version. The suspend date has been moved forward to 2 weeks before the end of the year.
infernalmachine: Question text changed to accomodate the fact that not all these countries are in the Southern Hemisphere (as previously claimed). The 14 countries are unchanged, so this question remains identical (functionally) to its previous version. The suspend date has been moved forward to 2 weeks before the end of the year.
Suspended Wed 17th Dec 2008 7:59am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested last Thursday 10:16am PST by 
hect0r
: Out of these 14 countries, only Paraguay has a new head of state since July. Fernando Lugo became president 15 August.
hect0r: Out of these 14 countries, only Paraguay has a new head of state since July. Fernando Lugo became president 15 August.
Suspend date: Wed 17th Dec 2008 7:59am PST
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Get widget!Predictions (25)
25 predictions
notablenotices
gtown
predicted 1, 2 or 3 countries will have new head of state (H$50 at 84%)
predicted 1, 2 or 3 countries will have new head of state (H$100 at 83%)
php_ini
predicted 1, 2 or 3 countries will have new head of state (H$50 at 21%)
joaoxxx
mork
predicted None will have a new head of state Q3 or Q4 2008 (H$100 at 6%)Comments (1)
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