Which movie will earn more "Wall-E vs. Wanted" opening weekend?

Hmmm, This one had me wanting to bet against my personnal preference. I would no doubt pay to see Wanted, which looks awsome- like a matrix/hitman combo with Angelina Jolie and Morgan Freeman.
However, those Disney Pixar movies always rake in the bucks and are enormously popular.
Im not sure if you have used it before, but I like the new format lucidstates adding couple extra options by including the more or less than. Spreads out initial odds which is nice.
Decision time......Wall E- but by how much?...you got me thinkin!

Hehe, I am pleased that you are pleased and challenged my "Chargers" lovin' friend..... Man, that is sooooo hard for a COWBOY FANATIC to say, but alas, this is HubDub and anything is possible around here! Lol :-P
I actually got this new format idea after talking with "Jenniandboys" when I couldn't come up with a good way to do all these summer smash hits, as it is wayyy easier to pick the #1 opener during the summer, BUT this changed everything, so I give props to the Jenster for giving me this idea.
P.S. I know she'll kill me when she reads that nickname, hahahaha, BRING IT ON JENNI!!! And Tell TRI that I can handle him too!!! hahahaha JUST KIDDING :-D

Jenster had a great idea. You are right, just picking which movie will come on top is too easy.
I like the way this makes you think and do more research on the films.
good work Jenster and lucid =)
now look what you did.. she has you to blame for me calling her Jenster. haha

LOL... Charger man you ROCK! Haha, now she's gonna hate us both :-P ... She's already now calling me Luci! What a Jenster! :-P

WALL-E

WANTED

Both will be fun, but WALL-E's demographic appeal is wider than Angelina's, I mean Wanted's.

Okay lets look at something...

Dreamworks does pretty good, but historically Pixar does phenomenally!

Adam Sandler historically does pretty good, Angelina Jolie not so guaranteed!

So what's the point? Adam Sandler was beaten by some $20 million by a Dreamworks cartoon and Jolie is going up against Pixar!

This indicates to me that Jolie is going to be lucky to do as much as Adam did, but Wall-E is most likely going to beat Panda by some $10 - $15 million without breaking a sweat.

HSX Update:

As of 06/19/08 12:10am

Wall-E expected to open with $68.389 million
Wanted expected to open with $45.489 million

8 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes of Wanted - 100% so far saying one of the best action movies of the year.

Scott... I think you hate me :-P ... We need to be friends, hahaha, seems like you and I are polar opposites when it comes to Hollywood Entertainment :-D ... I hope you win man, but honestly, I hope I win :-D

HSX estimate for opening weekend for Wall-E has risen again, it now stands at $70.041 million to Wanted's $47.227 million opening. This means Wall-E is expected to win by $22.814 million. Man I cannot wait for next Friday! This is gonna be a huge weekend!

Which payoff will be better for you, Big Brown not winning triple crown or Wall-E grossing 17.1mill or more?
I noticed how much you bet against Big Brown and was worried for you, apparently your instincts are better than mine.

Action movies are the thing this year. With the incredible reviews of Wanted and the stars in it I think it will win. At the same time Wall-E is a kids movie which typically will do at best 50-60M. Wanted could do 70M plus.

Wall-E will do $65 - $75 mil easy.
Wanted will likely do $47 - $57 mil!

My payoff was much better for Big B. But this one is absolutely a winner too, Wall-E IS going to win, by how much? I dunno, but win nevertheless.

I think Wall E will do 50-65M
Wanted will do 100M +

Wanted is getting the best reviews I've seen all season.

I am putting the bank on it.

If lucid says Wall-E wins then I am going to put some money on it. Wanted to me doesn't seem to have any buzz, but with the kids out of school and 3 weeks since Kung Fu I am thinking this Wall-E movie is going to do well.
I know I shouldn't wager so much on these questions but its hard not to. Projections put Hancock over 100 million, I must have 40k on it earning more than 76 million.

For your sake Scott, I really hope you're right, but I fear that Wall-E is going to be wayyyy bigger than anyone anticipates ... I bet the farm on Big Brown to lose, and I made a killing, and I've bet big on Wall-E by $17.1+ but, I wouldn't bet the farm on this Q, but hey, maybe it's your day to shine and seriously man, I really hope you're right.......... But, I'm still betting hard against Wanted, so yeah, one of us is gonna lose BIG this weekend! :-/
But that's what makes this soooo much fun, it's like the Superbowl, one side is the victor and the other loses sooooo much. I looooooove big wagering :-D It's what this is all about, hehehe, so much fun :-D

Quick Update as of 9:10 pm on June 23rd, 2008 ... HSX is calling for Wanted to earn $41.362 mil and Wall-E to earn $65.131 mil ... That's a $23.768 mil difference for those keeping track. What will the actual outcome be? I dunno, but I could easily see Wanted not making the 50 mark and Wall-E possibly hitting 74 :-D

Check out this video of Wall-E clips about robots:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84Z0Y_PGl2Y&feature=bz303

I'm very familiar with all of the Wall-E trailers. Honestly I am fairly bored with hubdub and because of that I am going to start betting far more. I think Wall-E will do well. But I think you will find the reviews not as good as you think. Also - it's a kids movie - young kids. A the top I see 65M.

On the other hand this has been the BEST summer for action movies. Every teen out there has been wondering if Wanted will be good and now the reviews are saying terrific. I can see 80M+ easily for it.

There is no way wanted will do just 41M - If not for Iron Man etc... it would probably be considered the best action movie of the summer.

Latest review... thats 14/15 on Rotten Tomatoes.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25337920/

Angelina Jolie is not the star of "Wanted," opening this weekend. James McAvoy, so good in "Atonement" and "Last King of Scotland," is. And two things are gleaned quickly from watching this comic book-turned-screen mess: First, Borat may have been right about Kazakhstan. Second, only Marvel Comics can make this kind of movie properly.

First, Borat. Director Timur Bekmambetov is from Kazakhstan and it shows. This is his first American movie, and I believe it is his first in English. This could be a clue as to why "Wanted" — which is visually arresting and loaded with enough computer-generated graphics to spawn many video games — is also incoherent. I still have little idea what it was about. Neither did most of the audience in my screening.

But the concept for "Wanted" is based on a comic book by Mark Millar. I’m not familiar with it, and the movie does nothing to explain it. The screenplay takes McAvoy’s Wesley Gibson, a "nobody" who whines about his boring life, and turns him abruptly into a superhero enforcer of justice.

Wesley is also the son of a famous assassin whom he’s never met. He learns this from Jolie, who is billed as the movie’s star but isn’t. She’s rather a beautiful, if mostly mysterious, second-fiddle player, a member of a league of assassins known as "The Fraternity" led by Morgan Freeman.

Unlike the hit Marvel movies, "Wanted" is fuzzy on all facts. It’s hard to tell the good guys from the bad guys. There’s no love story. The main character, Wesley, is poorly drawn even though McAvoy is incredibly appealing as he tries to help the audience figure out the story.

At 5-foot-7 on a very good day, McAvoy is an odd choice for action hero. But maybe his agents are hoping to turn the 29-year-old Scottish actor into the new Tom Cruise. Stranger things have happened.

As for Angelina: She’s in and out of the film. Her role is inconsistent and underdeveloped. She has little dialogue. Mostly she does her "Tomb Raider" thing, shoots big futuristic machine guns and gives a lot of angry stares. She also sports a panoply of tattoos that you can only hope were washable.

The word from insiders is that she took this role as a trade-off so Universal would make Clint Eastwood’s "Changeling," in which she stars. "Changeling" — if its plot holes are fixed — could bring her an Oscar nomination if not big box office. "Wanted" doesn’t make sense.

@Destry, I love your critique. I fully trust your views as accurate :-D

@scott, I hope you're right, otherwise, you'll hate HubDub instead of just being bored with it, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, maybe Wanted will open stronger then I think, therefore, Maybe a $17 mill or less, Win is more accurate, but fact is, Wall-E IS the most anticipated film of June and it will hold up really strong. Historically speaking, critics are morons and many a time when they praise a film is bombs at the box office and many a times they lambast a movie, it scores gold at the box office. This I think will be a repeat, so all in all, Wanted MIGHT open up barely above $50 - $55 mill, but next weekend after that, it'll go down quicker then someone can flushing their drugs. :-D

I have a feeling Destry didn't understand The Matrix either.

I've read all the reviews of Wanted and they all say it's much more understandable than the Matrix films of which it's being compared to. There is also talk that Jolie might be the main character in the sequels.

In any event if I win great, if not, no big deal I'll just bet the rest on something else until I run out of money and quite. Honestly Hubdub had alot of potential but it's just boring now.

Also make no mistake, I'll be taking my kids this weekend to Wall-E, and will go to wanted Friday night with my wife. So if this were based on my family then Wall-E would win because 4 of us will see Wall-E and only two will see Wanted.

My goodness did this question raise some conversation, and alot of wagering. Great job lucidstates creating such a good question.

@sdchargers, Thanks soooo much sdchargers! I'm so grateful for your encouragement and enthusiasm :-D Haha, I'm really excited about this Q as it's become my 3rd question now to top $100,000 in bets!! That's soooooo awesome!! THANKS EVERYONE including scott, for making this Q top $100k!! WOOT :-D 3 and counting :-D

@scott, dude if HubDub is so boring, why do you kepp making comments and betting? Why not just stop already, drink a beer and watch sports? I mean, if it really is quite so uninteresting, seems weird that you'd put so much effort into your comments and bets.
Just an observation man. I truly have no grudge against you, I just think it's interesting how some people can complain yet they won't stop playing. Seems like an oxymoron. Meaning opposites. So yeah, dude we love having you be a part of this game, but cheer up and at least pretend to actually enjoy what you're spending a good amount of time doing. Why play if you aren't enjoying it?

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/reviewsnews.php?id=46317

Rotten tomatoes has it at 85% and going up.

As far as why I still play on HubDub... 1) I'm unemployed (not for long), and 2) I'm obsessive with the internet and this site keeps pulling me back :>

I have 21,000 bet on Wanted.... half on under 17 and half on over.

If I can raise more money and if you suckers bet more on Wall-E I'll bet more :>

I can't wait til tomorrow morning when I can buy more Wall E after Scott comes in and dumps more money on Wanted.

I cant wait until destry buys more wall-e so I can get better odds on Wanted

Well I just bought some more Wall E. I have decided to actually go see this movie and am taking along the entire family, got to do whatever I can to push this movie up.

You see here is the flaw in your logic.

You think because Wall-E got great reviews it will do great. I think it would do great regardless and that great reviews were built in. I was going to take the family despite the reviews and I think many are the same.

At the same time - there is a vacancy for a terrific action movie rated R for adults and people have been seeing Wanted previews before every movie and hoping it would be great - and it is. I think Wanted will be packed.

Maybe it will come down to the 17 mil or less on either side. I don't know. I do know I will be seeing wanted tomorrow night.

I just can't see a r-rated movie beating a kids movie (much less pixar). The Wanted movie looks good, but its nothing I am having to see. Well it will be fun to see which way it goes.
There is this new movie with Kevin Costner about election coming out that looks really good.

The face you think that ANY movie with Kevin Costner in it will do well bodes very well for me :>

Destry never said K.C. movie would do well! Look at his comments again. His commenting on K.C's movie looking good was simply an opinion of his and as for your betting on Wanted, I am really glad you are, because as you do that, I bet even more, with better odds every day on Wall-E :-D
I cannot believe anyone expects an R rated film to top a Pixar flick! Never gonna happen! Not in the next 5 years at least :-D ... Truthfully, I had no idea Wanted was Rated R, but now that I know, I am now more confident then ever that Wall-E is gonna win without even breaking a sweat :-)

THE DAY has arrived folks! It's onnnnnn now!!! Get you final bets in, this thing suspends in 22 hours!!! :-D Shameless promoter I know :-D LOL

Ha! I just hedged by bet by betting on Wall-E 17 mil or less. that way I break even if it happens. If Wanted wins I get tons.

By the way - the local theaters here are showing them on same # of screens and general times.

Down here we have Wanted playing in two of the 24 theaters and Wall E playing in three of them.

Theater counts:
Wall-E 3,992
Wanted 3,175

(Already got a babysitter set for WallE, so there's two more!)

A friend of one of the interns in our office that works at movie theater says that wall e was full in first showings this morning. I am sure wanted will have a strong evening.

Valornhonor has an awesome wife, and she runs a movie theater, and she is predicting Wall-E to be a smash hit! BTW, she and Val have been killing me all summer at these B.O. questions, so I FULLLLLLLY trust in their opinion!

Chant with me:
WALL-E ... VALOR ... WALL-E ... VALOR ... WALL-E ... VALOR ... :-D

COURTESY of www.the-numbers.com

WALL-E About to Blast Off?
June ends this weekend and so far there's only been one film not to match expectations, or at least come relatively close to doing so. That said, none of the films have had massive breakout success either. That should change this weekend as WALL-E is tracking well above initial expectations.

At the beginning of the month, I was not overly bullish on WALL-E's box office chances. The lead character, WALL-E the Robot, doesn't speak, at least not traditional words. The lack of dialogue would make the movie difficult to sell to kids, while adult aficionados will be more enthusiastic. However, the tracking for the movie is through the roof and there are many who think the movie will top the list and have the biggest opening for a Pixar movie ever. Given its quality, this wouldn't be a shock. The record is currently held by The Incredibles at $70.47 million, which is roughly where this film is tracking. In fact, WALL-E is tracking just a little higher at $71 to $72 million. On the other hand, catching Finding Nemo's final box office of $339.71 million will be a lot tougher. The competition is a lot stronger; in fact, the year Finding Nemo opened at the box office, no other digitally animated movie was released. (2003 is the last year where there was no competition in the digitally animated field.) That said, if the movie does open slightly better than expected at $75 million or more, it could easily reach $300 million or more at the box office and perhaps become the biggest hit of the summer. That might be a stretch, but an opening just north of $70 million is not.

James McAvoy has a bundle of talent, but he has yet to star in a movie that has the potential to make him a household name. That could change this weekend with Wanted opening in more than 3,000 theaters. The film is also the English-language debut for Russian director, Timur Bekmambetov, who previously directed the record-breaking Night Watch franchise. This film is being compared to those two, especially the frenetic, stylized action. It's a good time of the year to release an action movie like this, and with strong reviews it should be a powerhouse in the counter-programming arena. The film appears to be tracking for an opening weekend in the high $30 million to the low $40 million range. I think it is likely that on Sunday the studio will release an estimate giving the film just over $40 million over the weekend, but by Monday that will be down to just under $40 million. This is still a great start and will put in on track to reach more than $100 million in total.

With the two new releases opening tomorrow with a predicted combined box office of $110 million, one would think last week's crop of new releases would be crushed. However, there's not a lot of direct competition for Get Smart. That said, a 50% drop-off is still not out of the question, which would leave the film with just over $19 million over the weekend for a total of $76 million after two. If it can earn just over $21 million over the weekend, which is a distinct possibility, then it would be on pace to reach $100 million by the end of its third weekend of release. I'm going with a prediction of just under $21 million for the weekend, which would leave it on pace to hit about $115 million in total.

On the other hand, Kung Fu Panda does have to deal with direct competition and it could take a beating over the weekend. Normally kids movies have very soft declines, but with what could be the biggest and the best such release making its debut tomorrow, it is likely that Kung Fu Panda will fall nearly 50% to just over $11 million over the weekend. Even so, the film will still be on pace to hit $200 million by the end of its run.

The Incredible Hulk became the seventh film of the year to reach the $100 million mark, reaching that milestone during its 12th day of release. On the one hand, Hulk topped 9 digits in just 10 days. On the other hand, on its 13th day of release, the latest day we have box office numbers for, The Incredible Hulk earned $2.12 million compared to $1.65 million for Hulk. If it can crack $11 million over the weekend, which is possible, then it will surpass its predecessor's running tally at the same point in its run. If it can crack $10 million, which is very likely, then it will have to wait until some time after the weekend to reach that point, but it will happen.

- C.S.Strowbridge

Date posted: 2008-06-26

@scott, GOOD job man, that is playing it smart! And to be honest, I did the same thing. I bet enough on the WALL-E by $17 mil or Less, that I'll almost break even if it wins but by less than $17.1 mil, however, it is ends up above $17.1 mil ahead, I'll make bank :-D
I'm honestly super glad to have you so into this fight man :-D I love HubDub and am glad you're getting more excitement out of it now and with the security play, you may just have some more bucks to play with :-) Nice goin' :-)

-------------------------
BOX OFFICE MOJO
WEEKEND PREVIEW
PREPARED FOR destry71@gmail.com
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Friday, June 27, 2008

Sci-fi animation 'Wall-E' beams in with the largest release of the weekend, opening on approximately 6,400 screens at 3,992 theaters, while special effects action picture, 'Wanted,' strikes around 4,700 screens at 3,175 theaters.

WALL-E has the BIGGEST opening day EVER for a Pixar animated film!!!!!!!

Here is the list of first 24 hours of Pixars latest 5 films:
#1 ... $23.018 million ... WALL-E
#2 ... $20.503 million ... The Incredibles ....... went on to earn $70.467 million opening weekend.
#3 ... $20.208 million ... Finding Nemo ....... went on to earn $70.251 million opening weekend.
#4 ... $19.173 million ... Cars ....... went on to earn $60.119 million opening weekend.
#5 ... $17.390 million ... Monsters Inc. ....... went on to earn $62.577 million opening weekend.
#6 ... $16.452 million ... Ratatouille ....... went on to earn $47.027 million opening weekend.

So this means that Wall-E should end up with between $71 - $76 million opening :-D

WOOT :-D

Well I just came back from Wall-E and honestly - it sucked. The kids kinda liked it but the other adults thought it was bad. The older kids didn't like it.

I asked the ticket counter which movie was selling better and she said about equal.

Further, our 16 year old babysitter who is coming tonight called to see if she could come later - because she was seeing wanted right now.

I smell an upsetl

Just saw this..

Angelina Jolie's R-rated action thriller Wanted took in $51 million its first weekend at the box-office, making it the #1 June opening for an R-rated film in history, and the 6th-biggest first weekend ever for a movie with that MPAA rating.

That means if those are final number which they are not, wall-e needs to make more than 68M to win.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

June 27–29, 2008
Studio Estimates

1 N Wall-E BV $62,500,000 - 3,992 - $15,656 $62,500,000 $180 1
2 N Wanted Uni. $51,118,000 - 3,175 - $16,100 $51,118,000 $75 1

Well I saw WallE and thought it was awesome =-=- but its all a matter of taste.. the numbers are looking to be about 12million right now... we'll wait for the actuals tomorrow, but its extremely unlikely that they will bump us out of that range.

Yeah that means I break about even....more or less. If Pixar hadnt hyped wall-e to death wanted would have taken it.

@scott - great job backpedaling. Just a week ago you claimed Wanted would do 70+ million, then up'd that to 100 million. Now Wall-E has beaten Wanted by approx 12 million dollars and you are still claiming a victory.
I think with everything that has happened in this market we are assured of one thing, Pixar still rules the box office, R-rated movies no matter how good aren't going to beat them heads up, and Lucid had a much better sense on this weekend than you did.

Nights not over - going to see wanted and maybe Ill push it up.

I said it would be big and I was right

making it the #1 June opening for an R-rated film in history, and the 6th-biggest first weekend ever for a movie with that MPAA rating.

just to point out: the per theater earnings show wanted outsold wall-e by about $500 per theater...extrapolating the numbers shows that wanted would have brought in about 64 million... a pretty good showing....

I just came back from Wanted and it kicked major ass. Awesome movie.

Well, it looks like Wall-E/Pixar still rule the Box Office with great wholesome entertainment :-D ... I give it to Wanted for such a strong showing! Good job on their part, but with the Question the way it was created, though Wall-E didn't do as much as anticipated and Wanted did a little more than anticipated, WALL-E IS STILL THE VICTOR :-D So anyone that bet on Wall-E by $17 million or Less, has one some major bucks :-D ... All bets on Wanted lost.
This looks likely to tie or maybe become Pixars 3rd biggest ever opening weekend AND it's doing it in a summer full of competition! Usually, Pixar ruled the Cold Holiday season, but since they started really attacking the summer, the numbers have been harder to muster, due to mega competition, so this shows amazing promise for this newest entry from the kings of animation Pixar/Disney :-D
The best thing about Pixar is consistency of product! ... None of their films have ever failed, yet the CG and traditional hand animation field is littered with failures! Some of the films by rival studios have done really, really well, but it's very hit and miss, yet Pixar continues to rake in the dough and produce films with mega merchandising sales, sequel potential, and even theme park rides! If for nothing else, you can ALWAYS count on Pixar to make big bucks and have a really consistent product and this weekend proves it again. Yet again #1 and yet again, over $62 million :-D

THANKS EVERYONE for betting on this one and making it a huge market! I loved it and thanks Scott for making it so chatty :-D ... I liked the competition, felt kinda like a sporting match, lots of fun. You brought some fire to it, hahaha, so yeah, good going man, and I hope you'll continue to bet on movie questions and we can continue our opposite views weekly, lol :-D

Next up.......... HANCOCK and then we have THE DARK KNIGHT! This summer ain't even close to over yet :-D

Alrighty everyone, I've asked the admins to settle this Question with the winning prediction being "Wall-E by $17 million or Less."

Here are the Official Results: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080630/ap_en_mo/box_office;_ylt=AjNkCk9JSvxFEhwjgPSWhrVxFb8C

#1 ... $63,087,526 ... Wall-E
#2 ... $50,927,085 ... Wanted

So Wall-E easily beat Wanted by nearly $13.1 million ... Congrats to Wall-E, Pixar and all those who bet on "Wall-E by $17 million or Less."

lucidstates

Dark Knight will kick ass no question. Hancock will either be gold or garbage... hard to tell before some reviews.

When are they going to settle this?