tarpash
If Hillary drops out before the Democratic Convention, by what means will she do it?
The first primary signal from the Clinton campaign that a withdrawal was imminent was a email released to her supporters, this would count as a "internet posting." As per the creators clarification Clinton acknowledged she could not win. Also after the release of the email the Media reported on it by showing excerpts.
From Settlement Details: If Clinton suspends her campaign but it is reported that she's dropping out by the news media than the market can still be settled.
Background:
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Speech: A speech in which Clinton does not answer questions from reporters but only gives a speech.
Other Means: Includes a news conference in which she makes a statement and then answers questions.
If Clinton suspends her campaign but it is reported that she's dropping out by the news media than the market can still be settled.
If Clinton does not drop out the market will be voided
Settled
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speech in WV, OR, KY, SD, MT, or PR |
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speech in NY |
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speech in DC |
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speech elsewhere |
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internet posting |
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announced on specific television program |
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other means |
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Suspend date: Thu 7th Aug 2008 10pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 6th Jun 2008 2:29pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 4th Jun 2008 10am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: speech in WV, OR, KY, SD, MT, or PR: 20%, speech in NY: 20%, speech in DC: 20%, speech elsewhere: 20%, internet posting: 5%, announced on specific television program: 5%, other means: 10%
Action history:
tarpash 
cmyro
: Internet posting
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/05/clinton.obama.wrap/index.html
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: We know she has released an email and that she will give a speech on Saturday in DC. At this point people are wagering on how Ryan will settle this question... so I will suspend and give him the chance to do so. (market suspended) 
ryanj
: The first primary signal from the Clinton campaign that a withdrawal was imminent was a email released to her supporters, this would count as a "internet posting." As per the creators clarification Clinton acknowledged she could not win. Also after the release of the email the Media reported on it by showing excerpts.
From Settlement Details: If Clinton suspends her campaign but it is reported that she's dropping out by the news media than the market can still be settled.
Suspend date: Thu 7th Aug 2008 10pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 6th Jun 2008 2:29pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 4th Jun 2008 10am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (176)
176 predictions
rbrog77
predicted speech in DC (H$1,000 at 27%)
faceman
predicted speech in DC (H$860 at 64%)
predicted speech in DC (H$100 at 60%)
predicted speech in DC (H$250 at 75%)
predicted speech in DC (H$100 at 74%)
predicted speech in NY (H$100 at 15%)
wetz73
necessaryevil5150
predicted other means (H$5 at 4%)
kida
predicted speech in DC (H$100 at 75%)
paulcroft
jensir
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
Comments (29)
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New in Politics » US Election 2008
That leaves the most likely solution: a news conference, televised or not, as the most likely scenario. And without another category to choose from, I presume that a news conference falls under OTHER MEANS.
A news conference is an event where the subject answers questions from reporters. A concession speech is an event where a candidate makes a speech to supporters ending her campaign. I think the main difference is the "answering questions from reporters" part.
Huckabee conceeded after losing Texas -- concession speech or other?
Edwards conceeded in New Orleans -- concession speech or news conference?
I think this may be getting too nit picky with wording. I read this question as "where will she choose to announce that she's not running anymore". I would be sad if this degenerated into a war of words (i.e. she didn't concede, she merely "suspended" her campaign or some other similar argument). Will ask Ryan to clarify how he intends to settle this market.
A news conference to announce that she has decided to terminate her run for the candidacy for any reason other than conceding to Barack Obama -- is NOT a "concession" speach. She can terminate her run without conceding...possibly for the unity of the party. She might say in the speach that she will back the party candidate, but if she does NOT say that she is conceding to a candidate (and that could only be Barack Obama), it is NOT a concession speach.
I don't think Hillary will suspend her campaign, but I do see her possibly terminating her campaign for the good of the party, without conceding to Barack Obama. It will understandably be a pride issue.
Here is Edwards dropping out: http://youtube.com/watch?v=DdUCJsh6zvE
These are not news conferences. They are speeches. Whether they are "concession speeches" or not is up for interpretation. Both Huchabee and Edwards know they have been beaten. To me they are "conceding" because after the results of the primaries held up to that point are known, they know they can't win the nomination. They've lost.
Here is Wikipedia's article on concessions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concession_%28politics%29
"In politics, a concession is the act of a losing candidate publicly yielding to a winning candidate after an election, when the overall result of the vote has become clear." As it is tarpash's recommendation, I presume this will be our guiding light as to whether she will make a concession speach, a termination of candidacy speach, a suspension speach, or perhaps even something else.
Of course, all of this could be premature, because as valornhonor notes: the lady has guts and could well go all the way to the convention, regardless of what happens along the way...and if she really has this kind of tenacity, and she has already proven this in my book, perhaps she is the chosen leader...!
Again, its not really worth us arguing between ourselves until Ryan clariifies or escalates, so I'm ready to sit and wait for a while now.
Just got the clarification request so thats the reason I didn't suspend the market. After reading through the comments and looking at the videos of other candidates expulsions from the campaign I've come up with a solution.
I won't void the market but I have edited it, so if any users want there predictions voided I'm more then happy to help. Anyway to the edits. I've removed "concession" from the market options as that will cause confusion between a suspended campaign or a full withdrawal. So a speech is to be defined as a speech in which Clinton does not answer questions from reporters but only gives a speech. A news conference would be considered to be part of "Other Means" and it would include a statement and then questions from reporters.
I think this solves the squabbles over words, but if anyone has anymore questions please email me.
Cheers,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
she often posts information on her website and/or emails before releasing it in other forms so that her supporters are "in the loop:.... what if she annouces that she is dropping out on the website, then makes a formal announcement minutes or an hour later? If we check the website right as we hear her formal announcement, how can we be sure which came first, or if they were simultaneous?
For instance when Ron Paul made the announcement he was scaling back his campaign after McCain achieved the majority of the delegates, he made it via his website and then did the press rounds to clarify his posting. And CNN and MSNBC showed his website announcement all day the next day.
The market is contingent on Clinton dropping out so if that does not occur the market will be voided.
Regards,
Ryan Hubdub Category Editor
she has effectively done it!
"one more clarification:
she often posts information on her website and/or emails before releasing it in other forms so that her supporters are "in the loop:.... what if she annouces that she is dropping out on the website, then makes a formal announcement minutes or an hour later? If we check the website right as we hear her formal announcement, how can we be sure which came first, or if they were simultaneous?"
do you really think after sending that email, she could stay in the race? she effectively ended her campaign....
i still like #1: "by a parachute!" LMAO....
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