How many active Hubdub markets will there be when this market is settled on June 1, 2008?

cool question onedave

why the HUGE jump on less than 1350??? I know many markets will close between now and June 1st, but there will be many new markets too... unless there's something I don't know... anybody have some secrets to share?

I might be throwing away my H$, but at these GREAT prices I purchased one of each =)

How do you know that "many markets will close between now and June 1"?

Close probably wasn't the best word for it... I mean suspended/settled. At this questions creation, there were 1404 open markets. Currently 1427 for a gain of 23, but there were more questions created than just 23 since then. The gains don't keep up with the created questions, because of questions settled daily.

Since questions created outpace the settled questions, I can't imagine any 'normal' scenario for the number of questions dropping below 1350... so I thought the HUGE jump on less than 1350 was odd... someone staked a lot of H$ on it... so I wondered if they knew something I didn't... For Ex: the only way I see the # of questions going down is if something happens that prevents/restricts the creation of new questions.

So, when the price of "less than 1350" jumped so high, I immediately checked the Notice Board to see if Hubdub had announced any temporary site closures or new restrictions/limits on questions. I found nothing of the sort and immediately purchased all options that fell to cheap prices because of the rise of "less than 1350".

I would guess that the vast majority of markets that are created are short-term markets. Examples are "Who will win tonight's game between teams A and B" and "What will the value of the Dow be?" These markets get created and settled frequently.

I believe that long-term markets are going to decide this market. A good example of a long-term market is "Who will become the next president?" Many of these long-term markets are very similar. When a major news event occurs that allows the settlement of a long-term market, several markets will be settled.

The user(s) who predicted "less than 1350" may be banking on a major news event occurring. However, I think that this logic is incorrect. If you do a search on cyclone or earthquake, you will probably notice that there are a number of markets created after the recent disasters.

My feeling is that the open market total will inch up as more user accounts are created. The new users will have different ideas and will create new markets. When I created this market, my thought was "How fast will the total inch up?"

Of course, summer vacation is coming up in the Northern Hemisphere, where most Hubdubbers live. Another factor that goes into this market is how many of the top market creators will go on hiatus during the next two weeks and will anyone pick up their slack.

Just my H$0.02.

There are now 1510 active markets.

I don't understand why this question is weighted so oddly. Is it not true that there are 1588 active markets currently (May 29th), and we have only two days to go until this question settles? What am I missing here?

I know that there are quite a few questions that will settle midnight, May 31st, but is it really enough to drop the number below 1350?

Maybe jennieandboys can tell us. She put H$1,000 on 1350 or less.

Well...there are alot of suspened markets that are taking days to settle. Gaming, perhaps?

Well my bet was the result of some unluckiness ... I think they must have been doing testing or something because when I logged in a couple days ago it said there were only 1100 markets. I thought maybe they decided to void an entire category or something so rushed over here and dropped $1000 on 1350 or less. Then I went away and came back an couple of hours later and magically we were back to 1500+ markets. No idea why the number changed so drastically, I guess it was a temporary glitch. By the time I came back to sell my 1350 or less stock it was down to only 800$. (I took the loss and was happy to get some of my h$ back. If you'll notice, I have reinvested in the center of the scale).

So my only guess as to why 1350 or less remains so high is that perhaps other people have been tricked by the ephemeral low market number and didn't notice when it returned to normal. Or maybe they expect Hillary to drop out and McCain to select his VP in the next 24 hours? That might do it.

Does someone(s) have one or more browser taps opened with new market questions to "activate" within the next several minutes or so? :)

Jenni - don't forget my 51% commission. LOL

The problem is: there are SO MANY questions that settle on May 31st and June 1st...