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Will anyone be killed by a shark in US waters before September 2008?

Settled as No

No reports indicate that there is conclusive evidence of anyone being killed by sharks in US waters.

Background:

Shark attacks, while chilling, are actually quite rare. However, a man in California was killed by a shark in April of this year. Will there be any other victims this summer?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
7%
No
93%
Activity: H$85,318
Settled as No on Mon 1st Sep 2008 2:58pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 2008 2:58pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 12th May 2008 9:46am PDT by loren
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 1st Sep 2008 8:55am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Winning prediction = "No".

No other death by shark in US waters, other than the one listed in the market background, that I found.

<http://blogs.courant.com/roger_catlin_tv_eye/2008/08/shark-fans-bit.html>
Settled as 'No' Mon 1st Sep 2008 2:58pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: No reports indicate that there is conclusive evidence of anyone being killed by sharks in US waters.

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 2008 2:58pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (158)

158 predictions

18 weeks ago
f248parlaycos predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
18 weeks ago
davidpepe predicted No (H$20 at 91%)
18 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted No (H$3,000 at 90%)
18 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No (H$5,000 at 88%)
18 weeks ago
jgardner100 predicted No (H$20 at 87%)
more

Comments (6)

good question, and i like the starting odds too. I'll say yes becuase sometimes these things come in groups...
posted 32 weeks ago
  2 loren
Oh, this is interesting:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/08/27/keys.bodies/index.html

Lots of open questions -- were they killed by the sharks? Were they in US waters at the time? Could we be closing in on a "yes"?
posted 18 weeks ago
  3 loren
Ooh, there's more:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/volusia/orl-shark-bite-082808,0,4063408.story?track=rss

They seem to be biting in Florida -- and a big holiday weekend is approaching!
posted 18 weeks ago
  4 cammaz
I can't believe you people are hoping somebody dies from a shark attack just so you win your bet! =P
posted 18 weeks ago
  5 randburg
If you are in FLORIDA:

Forget the sharks: WATCH THE ANTS!!

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/08/28/Florida_man_fatally_bitten_by_fire_ants/UPI-76061219977649/
posted 18 weeks ago
  6 loren
Your point is well taken, cammaz ... allow me to clarify mine: I'm not actually hoping someone gets killed by a shark -- I'm hoping that enough of YOU believe that someone will get killed by a shark that I'll be able to cash in this prediction with my dignity intact.

And in the great cosmic scheme of things, this'll probably end up with ME being the one getting eaten.
posted 18 weeks ago

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