Will Ken Griffey Jnr be traded to the Seattle Mariners before the 2008 trade deadline?

In 2007, Ken Griffey Junior stated a desire to one day return to Seattle, the team he began his career with. He repeated these sentiments last week in an interview with USA today. This and comments by Seattle Mariners president Chuck Armstrong instigated much speculation that a trade may be in the works:

"I think everyone in Seattle would like to see him retire in a Mariners uniform. He was born a Mariner, and I'd like to see him finish up as a Mariner."

How this scenario would play out though has been clouded by Junior's more recent reference to the retirement of Emmitt Smith and the tokenistic one day contract he signed with Dallas in order to (nominally) retire a Cowboy.

But surely, at this stage of his career, Junior would rather play for the Mariners who are more likely to contend now and in the short term than the Reds. And surely "everyone in Seattle who would like to seem him retire in a Mariners uniform" would rather see him wear it for a year or more in the outfield at Safeco Field than for one day at a press conference.

I think there is a better chance of this trade occurring this year than what Griffey is letting on. I'll put it at 35%.