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what will be the last digit in maryland's multimatch drawing saturday may 17th 2008?

Settled as 2 %10

http://www.mdlottery.com/

42

Background:

if the last number is 45...then 5 is the winning digit.


Settlement details: http://www.mdlottery.com/

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

0 %10
7%
1 %10
8%
2 %10
8%
3 %10
8%
4 %10
10%
5 %10
16%
6 %10
7%
7 %10
7%
8 %10
7%
9 %10
24%
Activity: H$5,436
Settled as 2 %10 on Sun 18th May 2008 3:33am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 17th May 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 18th May 2008 3:33am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 17th May 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0 %10: 10%, 1 %10: 10%, 2 %10: 10%, 3 %10: 10%, 4 %10: 10%, 5 %10: 10%, 6 %10: 10%, 7 %10: 10%, 8 %10: 10%, 9 %10: 10%

Action history:

Created Mon 12th May 2008 7:33pm PDT by dieseldog
Suspended Sat 17th May 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as '2 %10' Sun 18th May 2008 3:33am PDT by diana: http://www.mdlottery.com/

42

Suspend date: Sat 17th May 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 18th May 2008 3:33am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 17th May 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (57)

57 predictions

33 weeks ago
stefo91 predicted 9 %10 (H$50 at 23%)
33 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted 3 %10 (H$100 at 10%)
33 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted 2 %10 (H$100 at 9%)
33 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted 1 %10 (H$100 at 9%)
33 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted 0 %10 (H$100 at 10%)
more

Comments (13)

  1 destry[Admin]
Just so everyone knows the odds of numbers 1,2, and 3 appearing are 11.63%. The odds of numbers 4,5,6,7,8,9 are 9.3% and odds of 0 appearing is 6.97%.
This is based on fact that multi match uses numbers 1-43. In future questions about this lottery, starting odds should be reflective of those odds.
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
rotflol @ destry. your basing your whiney complaint on what? you have a study of the md multimatch lottery? please post the link. i burn you for accussing me of being negative and your still not over it.
posted 34 weeks ago
Yeah, I bought 11.63% chance at only 10.87%... such a steal of a deal.

Over time my 43 H$100 will pay out H$4600. I should be ashamed of myself.
posted 34 weeks ago
oops... my math was off a bit... 43*H$100 pays out H$5100 over time.

Now I should be REALLY ashamed of myself...

but I'm not ;-)
posted 34 weeks ago
Oops.. my math was right the first time... 43*H$100 pays out H$4600 over time.

Now I don't have to be ashamed of myself... I'm only gaining H$300 after 43 predictions.
posted 34 weeks ago
From Krujis the first time you posted the question:
oh, in the lottery they draw 6 out of 43
so the probability for the last number to be 1, 2 or 3 is higher than the others
To be precise: The probability for a draw ending on 1, 2 or 3 is 11.63% each. For all other numbers it is 9.30% each.
see http://www.worldcasinodirectory.com/maryland/lottery

From me the second time you posted the question:
@Krujis - after your heads up last time, this time i went straight for 1,2 and 3! :) I could make a whole 70$ on this Q...

@dieseldog - you should include in your background next time the fact that the numbers are only out of 43. Its deceptive in that people assume it will be out of something even (like 50 or 100).

From me now:
I'm with destry on this one. You should change your starting odds and at least make a note in the background that the choices are out of 43.
posted 34 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
http://www.worldcasinodirectory.com/maryland-lottery-results.htm

Note: For the most efficient utilization of the database, the search time period is limited up to 30 days.

are you basing your figures on the 30 day time period? have you, Krujis, or destry reseached say the last 2 years to get your numbers? the link to md lottery is posted for all who wants to use it. if we use your logic, then on all stock market questions the creator should tell us how often they close up, and down. people nic-picking questions to death are gonna ruin the site. if you think it's a bad question move on to the next question. have a nice day.
posted 34 weeks ago
  8 bayoubear[Admin]
I know percentages can be hard for some to deal with..so let's look at it this way...the numbers 1, 2, & 3 appear 5 times between 1-43 (for example 1, 11, 21, 31, 41)...the other numbers 4-9 appear only 4 times (8, 18, 28, 38)...and rather than a lower expectation for 0, it seems that 0 also appears 4 times, just like the numbers 4-9...(10, 20, 30, 40)

So out of 43 chances, 5 of them will be 2 for example (11.627%) and 4 of them would be 6 for example (9.302%). Since there are also 4 0's appearing between 1-43, the 9.302% would apply to them as well.

Now there may be studies of past outcomes of this lottery, or any other that might show a different trend, but remember, just because a coin has come up heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean there's a greater chance of coming up tails on the 11th time...it's still 50/50

I'm no mathematician, but that seems right...correct me, and I won't be upset, just don't use that 'higher' level form of math...it gets me all confuserated

And I don't think it's a bad question...the percentages will adjust as the days pass, and they're pretty close to begin with....keep 'em coming diesel...and I feel your pain...how can ya keep yourself going with prices like they are...
posted 33 weeks ago
  9 dieseldog
@- bayoubear first of all thanks for the postive way you presented your case. as for the example 1, 11, 21, 31, 41.. the odds of "01" are so low its next to 0 and the chances of 11 being the last is very low. (same for 10) your coin example is a good anaology. people can use the fancy math if they think it will give them an advantage. as for keeping going..i'm running on empty. guess i'll move to china and drive one of those bicycle taxi's.
posted 33 weeks ago
  10 hubdubbob
I have #4 and #9 myself.
posted 33 weeks ago
@dieseldog - please know that my comments above were purely sarcasm. I'm amazed at all the concern expressed over a single percent difference.
posted 33 weeks ago
I really don't care much about the starting percentages, as everyone says, its only a couple percent. My point, and I will stand by it, is that you should mention in your background that the draw is out of 43. As bayoubear showed, it definitely makes a difference in the probabilities. I'm really not complaining about the question, I've bet on it all three times (and made money all three times). I like it. I just think its misleading for new players who will assume that its an even 10% probability on all 10 outcomes.

[Steps off soap box]
posted 33 weeks ago
  13 dieseldog
the prediction is on the (last digit.) so theres no way "01" can ever win. to my knowledge each number is in the pool to be drawin from once...ie "01" doesn't have 3 or 4 chances to be drawin. it's misleading to post a link that only has numbers from 30 days and tell people their legit. lets say the last month the last numbers was, 13, 23, 33, and 43. should the next question give 3 better odds than the other numbers? if someone has a list of all the last numbers drawin from the md multimatch for the last 5 years it still won't help. as bayoubear said.."just because a coin has come up heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean there's a greater chance of coming up tails on the 11th time...it's still 50/50."
posted 33 weeks ago

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