Created Tue 13th May 9:15am PDT by 
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What percentage of front page stories on Digg will be Tech in March 2009?
Current forecast: Bit lower (12.1 - 18%) (37% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Bit lower (12.1 - 18%) with a probability of 37% (unchanged in last 1 day)
Recent analysis conducted for ReadWriteWeb has shown that the presence of Tech stories on Digg has halved every year for the past 3 years (RWW: http://tinyurl.com/6xsrap). They found the percentage of most popular stories that are Tech on the front page were:
1st Week in March 2006: 75.72%
1st Week in March 2007: 37.89%
1st Week in March 2008: 19.78%
Get over it, we're mainstream now
The reason for the drop is pretty clear as Digg tries to make itself more mainstream, potentially in preparation for a sale. In last night's town hall event Kevin and Jay pretty much seemed to be say "Get over it, we're mainstream now". (Mashable: http://tinyurl.com/5al24u)
So what will the percentage of tech stories in most popular be in March 2009 compared with March 2008? If the current rate of halving continues it will be around 9%. However, I don't often see tech on the front page of Yahoo News so if that is the aspiration it could be even less.
1st Week in March 2006: 75.72%
1st Week in March 2007: 37.89%
1st Week in March 2008: 19.78%
Get over it, we're mainstream now
The reason for the drop is pretty clear as Digg tries to make itself more mainstream, potentially in preparation for a sale. In last night's town hall event Kevin and Jay pretty much seemed to be say "Get over it, we're mainstream now". (Mashable: http://tinyurl.com/5al24u)
So what will the percentage of tech stories in most popular be in March 2009 compared with March 2008? If the current rate of halving continues it will be around 9%. However, I don't often see tech on the front page of Yahoo News so if that is the aspiration it could be even less.
Make your prediction!
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Higher (> 24%) |
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Same (18.1 - 24%) |
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Bit lower (12.1 - 18%) |
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Much lower (6 - 12%) |
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Tech? (< 6%) |
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Activity: H$10,008
Question suspends in 29 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
Analysis of the percentage of tech stories on Digg most popular page for the first week of March 2009
Suspend date: Sat 28th Feb 2009 11:59pm PST (29 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Higher (> 24%): 10%, Same (18.1 - 24%): 35%, Bit lower (12.1 - 18%): 40%, Much lower (6 - 12%): 10%, Tech? (< 6%): 5%
Action history:
Created Tue 13th May 9:15am PDT by nigeleccles
nigeleccles
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: Analysis of the percentage of tech stories on Digg most popular page for the first week of March 2009... read all
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eva_elfje
awills
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Much lower (6 - 12%) (H$50 at 24%)
andrew
skipper
lewisdotcom
chris
tomg
lesleyComments
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