Created Tue 13th May 2008 2:06pm PDT by hubdubbob

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DJIA Poker - Which best poker hand will be available from the May 16 close of the DJIA?

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Use ONLY first the five numbers from right to left of DJIA's closing value

The best available hand which matches one of the choices available will be used to determine the outcome.

Available hand choices, in increasing order of strength are...

High Number Only (5 different numbers)
1 Pair
2 Pair
3 of a Kind
Straight (5 consecutive numbers).
Full House (3 of a Kind and a Pair).
4 of a Kind
5 of a Kind

A zero ("0") will be used in a straight only when used before the number one ("1"). (e.g. 0,1,2,3,4 but NOT 6,7,8,9,0).

DJIA Poker - Which best poker hand will be available from the May 16 close of the DJIA?

    High Number Only (5 different numbers)

    1 Pair

    2 Pair

    3 of a Kind

    Straight (5 consecutive numbers).

    Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair).

    4 of a Kind

    5 of a Kind

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Forecast history, %

   Zoom in

Settled

	High Number Only (5 different numbers)	29%
	1 Pair	36%
	2 Pair	14%
	3 of a Kind	14%
	Straight (5 consecutive numbers).	3%
	Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair).	2%
	4 of a Kind	1%
	5 of a Kind	1%

Activity: H$2,560

Settled as 1 Pair on Fri 16th May 2008 1:36pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 16th May 2008 1pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 16th May 2008 1:36pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 16th May 2008 1pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: High Number Only (5 different numbers): 43%, 1 Pair: 35%, 2 Pair: 7%, 3 of a Kind: 5%, Straight (5 consecutive numbers).: 4%, Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair).: 3%, 4 of a Kind: 2%, 5 of a Kind: 1%

Action history:

Created Tue 13th May 2008 2:06pm PDT by hubdubbob

Suspended Fri 16th May 2008 1pm PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 16th May 2008 1:23pm PDT by infernalmachine: close at 12986.80 so hand is (0 6 8 8 9)
So "1 Pair" wins
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI

Settled as '1 Pair' Fri 16th May 2008 1:36pm PDT by nigeleccles

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Suspend date: Fri 16th May 2008 1pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 16th May 2008 1:36pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 16th May 2008 1pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Predictions (29)

29 predictions

33 weeks ago

jaspersoddity predicted 1 Pair (H$100 at 29%)

33 weeks ago

jaspersoddity predicted High Number Only (5 different numbers) (H$50 at 32%)

33 weeks ago

hgumbert predicted 1 Pair (H$31 at 29%)

34 weeks ago

hubdubbob predicted 2 Pair (H$200 at 15%)

34 weeks ago

hubdubbob predicted 3 of a Kind (H$270 at 13%)

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33 weeks ago

jaspersoddity predicted 1 Pair (H$100 at 29%)

33 weeks ago

jaspersoddity predicted High Number Only (5 different numbers) (H$50 at 32%)

33 weeks ago

hgumbert predicted 1 Pair (H$31 at 29%)

34 weeks ago

hubdubbob predicted 2 Pair (H$200 at 15%)

34 weeks ago

hubdubbob predicted 3 of a Kind (H$270 at 13%)

34 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury predicted 1 Pair (H$20 at 30%)

34 weeks ago

iceman predicted 1 Pair (H$100 at 30%)

34 weeks ago

owl1 predicted Straight (5 consecutive numbers). (H$20 at 3%)

Showing recent public predictions only

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Comments (1)

  1 owl1

I guess I had this wrong, r to l would include cents, the odds of a straight would go down alot.

posted 34 weeks ago

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