Will Blu-Ray be declared a "dead media" within a year?

Is there a story associated with this? How/who will determine this to be a "dead media?" 80% chance of that happening seems a bit far stretched seeing that HD-dvds just yielded to blu-ray.

I like the question, but think it needs to be "tweaked" with more specifics.

I have blu-ray and don't think flash, VHS? what's that? lol, anything compares.
Give me the right settlement details and I'd bet the house on "NO"

You are probably right about the percentage. Perhaps a little too high. This is my first foray into Hubdub so be kind ;) There is no particular story just me, as an avid reader of tech news and observer of human behavior. I know many people that still use VCR's and I know the pain of upgrading a library from one format to another. I also thought about Moore's Law and tried to apply that to the advances I've read about in storage technology which led me to the question.

I have a CD player but why should I bother too much with it when I have a portable music player?

What's you're house like? I might be my apartment against that! ;P

@egadzukes...welcome to hubdub! :)
The new and creative questions are definitely encouraged! However, many of us (okay "I") have learned from experience that you need to be specific with the settlement details as they could easily be interpreted different ways.

As an avid reader of tech news, perhaps you can share some of the links or references about blu-ray. Sounds interesting...although, I still think it blows away the competition!

As for "betting the house," as tempting as it is, I should probably keep to my H$ for now...

Good luck with the questions and hubdub!

Here are some links to articles on BluRay adoption:

http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/05/14/more-research-asserts-that-blu-ray-adoption-isnt-apt-to-surge/

http://electronrun.com/wp_er/2008/02/07/9-reasons-to-not-upgrade-to-blu-ray-and-stick-to-dvd/

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080505-blu-ray-hits-bumps-in-the-road-to-hd-market-dominance.html

And another technology on its heels:

http://www.mempile.com/

A funny take on the issue, however it does raise some interesting points:

http://hijinksensue.com/2008/05/21/you-thought-you-had-seen-the-last-of-auto-tracking/

i love that comic, very nice. As for the bluray, I think it's the last serious format ever, before everything goes digital and subscriber based. That said, as you noted some people still mess around with VHS. My parents balk at the idea of watching their shows on the internet (for free) instead of paying almost 80 bucks a month for the 3 or 4 shows they actually watch. For my parents and grandparents paying for something means getting a physical copy of it, period, and to some extent I feel the same way. But I think I can get over not owning a physical copy of it so long as the downloads have options like commentary for stuff when I want it, and the company I'm receiving it from promises that I will always be able to get it, none of this itunes you own three files of it nonsense.

Plus, there will always be the collectible version with the pretty box. Some things never change.

hm, Mempile is interesting but I don't think we'll ever see it really work. There are several things working against it:

1. It's behind the curve. They expect to have a 1 TB disc two years from now. I expect to have a 4 TB HD by then.
2. It's still a new disc with a new drive. This isn't cost effective verse buying a new HD.
3. The write speed is that of a DVD. That means it would take probably a week to write a TB, maybe more. Compare that to a SATA HD....
4. HD's are getting super cheap now.

So combine these 4 things and you have a more expensive, lower performance option that holds less. The only viable commercial application seems to be archiving, which would be useful becuase you can't have the backup on or near the machine.