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Will the official death toll of the May 12th Chinese Earthquake exceed 30,000?

Settled as Yes

Two days after the earthquake the toll is listed at 12,000 with 18,000 still buried or missing.

Reported May 14, 2008, officials speaking from the epicentre of the earthquake in Sichuan province said that entire towns in the area had been 'razed to the ground' and left without a single house standing.

Xinhua, the state's official news agency, reported this morning that 178 children from one school in northern Sichuan province had been found dead, adding to the official death toll of nearly 13,000.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1954512/China-earthquake-Death-toll-rises-to-13,000.html
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
94%
No
6%
Activity: H$54,092
Settled as Yes on Sun 18th May 8:22am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Sun 18th May 8:22am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 18th May 4:50am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Wed 14th May 6:30am PDT by paulcroft
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 18th May 8:22am PDT by diana: http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/18/death-toll-from-china-quake-rises-as-rescuers-continue-to-pull-out-residents-buried-alive/

BEIJING, China ( CNN) — The death toll from last week’s devastating earthquake continued to mount Sunday as rescue workers searched for survivors among the rubble for a sixth day.

By Sunday evening, the official death toll rose to 32,477, according to state-run media Sunday.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (64)

64 predictions

14 weeks ago
miniala predicted Yes (H$50 at 94%)
14 weeks ago
yossarian predicted Yes (H$100 at 94%)
14 weeks ago
racketdad predicted Yes (H$20 at 94%)
14 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted Yes (H$100 at 91%)
14 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted Yes (H$20 at 91%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 diana
Hey paulcroft, you were completely right with your prediction. I just read a report that the death toll could rise to 50,000. It's quite sad.
posted 14 weeks ago
  2 paulcroft
Thanks Diana ... eventually you realize that the initial info being released is no where near correct. I think this death toll will rise a lot more yet.
posted 14 weeks ago

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