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What percentage of whites in Kentucky will vote for Clinton because of race?

Settled as At least 15% but less than 20%

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#KYDEM
.18 * 88 = 15.84

Background:

The every present racism question... Here's one attempt to look at the effect of racism on this race. CNN's exit polls include a question which reads: "Was Race of Candidate Important to You" and then breaks down the responses by race of respondent and who they voted for. To find the percentage of whites who are voting for Clinton because of race, multiply the percentage of whites who said race was important by the percentage of _those_ people who voted for Clinton. For example, below is the table for Pennsylvania from page 5 of CNN's PA exit poll: Was Race of Candidate Important to You? Clinton Obama Whites Who Say Yes (12%) 76% 24% Whites Who Say No (66%) 60% 40% Blacks Who Say Yes (4%) N/A N/A Blacks Who Say No (9%) 8% 92% All Others (5%) 54% 46% The percentage would be 12% * 76% = 9.12% Some recent contests: Pennsylvania 9.12% Indiana 7.8% West Virginia 17.6% Interesting commentary from CNN on racism: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/navarrette/index.html?iref=mpstoryview Hilarious SNL skit about voter's racism (amongst other things): http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/play.shtml?mea=250052 Note this closes early since exit polling is released by trickles throughout the day.


Settlement details: As determind from CNN exit polling by looking at the "Was Race of Candidate Important to You" question.

If that question is NOT included in Kentucky's exit polling, this quesiton will be voided.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Less than 10%
13%
At least 10% but less than 15%
40%
At least 15% but less than 20%
32%
20% or more
15%
Activity: H$4,076
Settled as At least 15% but less than 20% on Wed 21st May 2008 4:39am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 21st May 2008 4:39am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Less than 10%: 15%, At least 10% but less than 15%: 25%, At least 15% but less than 20%: 35%, 20% or more: 25%

Action history:

Created Wed 14th May 2008 11:26am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
Unsuspended Tue 20th May 2008 6:56am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Moved the market suspend up a tiny bit, this shouldn't conflict or cause gaming
Suspended Tue 20th May 2008 6:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 20th May 2008 7:17pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Was Race of Candidate Important to You Clinton Obama Uncommitted
Whites Who Say Yes (18%) 88% 9% 2%
Whites Who Say No (67%) 68% 28% 3%
Blacks Who Say Yes (2%) N/A N/A N/A
Blacks Who Say No (7%) N/A N/A N/A
All Others (2%) N/A N/A N/A


18%*88% = 15.84%
Settled as 'At least 15% but less than 20%' Wed 21st May 2008 4:39am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#KYDEM
.18 * 88 = 15.84

Suspend date: Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 21st May 2008 4:39am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

33 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted At least 10% but less than 15% (H$25 at 40%)
33 weeks ago
elucho02 predicted At least 10% but less than 15% (H$100 at 39%)
33 weeks ago
buzymom1975 predicted At least 10% but less than 15% (H$100 at 38%)
33 weeks ago
questmaster predicted Less than 10% (H$20 at 13%)
33 weeks ago
mick predicted 20% or more (H$50 at 15%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 myunion
Our next question should be - how many residents of the next state feel their side didn't win the civil war?
Hillary shouldn't win because of her willingness to say "We'll racism is an issue still, so let's just say racist crap"
I'm really venting over the CNN story linked here I guess.
posted 33 weeks ago
I was pretty upset too (that article is what made me finally try to figure out how to ask this question). The SNL skit basically says she should be the nominee because her supporters are too racist to vote for Barack. I laughed, but am worried that it may be true.

The fact that 17.6% of WV democratic voters were willing to admit on a survey they were voting against Obama because of race really depresses me (and suggests to me that the true number is even alarmingly higher). I thought our country had moved beyond that.
posted 33 weeks ago

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