What percentage of whites in Kentucky will vote for Clinton because of race?
Settled as At least 15% but less than 20%
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#KYDEM
.18 * 88 = 15.84
Background:>
The every present racism question... Here's one attempt to look at the effect of racism on this race. CNN's exit polls include a question which reads: "Was Race of Candidate Important to You" and then breaks down the responses by race of respondent and who they voted for.
To find the percentage of whites who are voting for Clinton because of race, multiply the percentage of whites who said race was important by the percentage of _those_ people who voted for Clinton.
For example, below is the table for Pennsylvania from page 5 of CNN's PA exit poll:
Was Race of Candidate Important to You?
Clinton Obama
Whites Who Say Yes (12%) 76% 24%
Whites Who Say No (66%) 60% 40%
Blacks Who Say Yes (4%) N/A N/A
Blacks Who Say No (9%) 8% 92%
All Others (5%) 54% 46%
The percentage would be 12% * 76% = 9.12%
Some recent contests:
Pennsylvania 9.12%
Indiana 7.8%
West Virginia 17.6%
Interesting commentary from CNN on racism:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/navarrette/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
Hilarious SNL skit about voter's racism (amongst other things):
http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/play.shtml?mea=250052
Note this closes early since exit polling is released by trickles throughout the day.
Settlement details:
As determind from CNN exit polling by looking at the "Was Race of Candidate Important to You" question.
If that question is NOT included in Kentucky's exit polling, this quesiton will be voided.
What percentage of whites in Kentucky will vote for Clinton because of race?
Less than 10%
At least 10% but less than 15%
At least 15% but less than 20%
20% or more
Zoom out
Forecast history, %
Settled
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Less than 10% |
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At least 10% but less than 15% |
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At least 15% but less than 20% |
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20% or more |
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Activity: H$4,076
Settled as
At least 15% but less than 20% on Wed 21st May 2008 4:39am PDT
Suspend date: Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 21st May 2008 4:39am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
Less than 10%: 15%, At least 10% but less than 15%: 25%, At least 15% but less than 20%: 35%, 20% or more: 25%
Action history:
Unsuspended Tue 20th May 2008 6:56am PDT by
ryanj![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
Moved the market suspend up a tiny bit, this shouldn't conflict or cause gaming
Suspended Tue 20th May 2008 6:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 20th May 2008 7:17pm PDT by
jenniandboys![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
Was Race of Candidate Important to You Clinton Obama Uncommitted
Whites Who Say Yes (18%) 88% 9% 2%
Whites Who Say No (67%) 68% 28% 3%
Blacks Who Say Yes (2%) N/A N/A N/A
Blacks Who Say No (7%) N/A N/A N/A
All Others (2%) N/A N/A N/A
18%*88% = 15.84%
Suspend date: Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 21st May 2008 4:39am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 2008 10:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (42)
42 predictions
33 weeks ago
valornhonor![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)

predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$25 at 40%)
33 weeks ago
elucho02
predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$100 at 39%)
33 weeks ago
buzymom1975
predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$100 at 38%)
33 weeks ago
questmaster
predicted
Less than 10% (H$20 at 13%)
33 weeks ago
mick
predicted
20% or more (H$50 at 15%)
more33 weeks ago
valornhonor![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)

predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$25 at 40%)
33 weeks ago
elucho02
predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$100 at 39%)
33 weeks ago
buzymom1975
predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$100 at 38%)
33 weeks ago
questmaster
predicted
Less than 10% (H$20 at 13%)
33 weeks ago
mick
predicted
20% or more (H$50 at 15%)
33 weeks ago
schenz
predicted
Less than 10% (H$20 at 13%)
33 weeks ago
vivek_nag
predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$100 at 37%)
33 weeks ago
jenniandboys![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

predicted
At least 15% but less than 20% (H$50 at 34%)
33 weeks ago
kruijs![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)

predicted
At least 15% but less than 20% (H$300 at 31%)
33 weeks ago
ezell1320
predicted
At least 15% but less than 20% (H$20 at 31%)
33 weeks ago
evilbeth
predicted
At least 15% but less than 20% (H$20 at 30%)
33 weeks ago
rbrog77
predicted
Less than 10% (H$23 at 15%)
33 weeks ago
myunion
predicted
Less than 10% (H$20 at 14%)
33 weeks ago
ravinglibdem
predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$400 at 37%)
33 weeks ago
jawsoflife
predicted
20% or more (H$50 at 19%)
33 weeks ago
bigken1
predicted
At least 10% but less than 15% (H$100 at 34%)
Showing recent public predictions only
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Comments (2)
Hillary shouldn't win because of her willingness to say "We'll racism is an issue still, so let's just say racist crap"
I'm really venting over the CNN story linked here I guess.
The fact that 17.6% of WV democratic voters were willing to admit on a survey they were voting against Obama because of race really depresses me (and suggests to me that the true number is even alarmingly higher). I thought our country had moved beyond that.
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