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Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Settled as Obama

Based on AP and NBC news. Two major sources.

Background:

Background: North Carolina has been a Republican stronghold for decades. So can Barack Obama really overcome the history of racial prejudice in the southern states?

The polls suggest that America will elect Barack Obama its first black president in two weeks. But the tidal wave of enthusiasm for him points to him not just winning the White House but capturing two important states of the Old Confederacy, North Carolina and Virginia.

Both have reliably gone Republican during every presidential election for 40 years, and only once since 1948 has Virginia voted to put a Democrat in the White House. On a US electoral map, these are the highest peaks of prejudice the Democrat is poised to overcome. The ground is now shaking under the country club Republicans as the polls give Senator Obama a margin of some 10 percentage points in Virginia and put North Carolina on a knife edge.

"Obama has a chance here," he says between pulls on an early morning cigar, "but if he was Tiger Woods I would be saying that he needs to finish the back nine with six birdies if he is going to take the states."

If the polls are correct and the huge numbers of newly registered voters actually turn out to vote, Mr Wrenn's life's work of building an impenetrable bastion for Republicans in North Carolina could soon be swept away. A defeat here, however narrow for Senator McCain, will be a painful setback for the Republicans. If this state and Virginia go Democratic, Senator Obama has won the White House. But perhaps more important will be the shattering of the Republicans' infamous "southern strategy".

Sarah Palin's accusations that Senator Obama was "palling around with terrorists" brought shouts of "Terrorist" and "Kill him" from her audience. A Republican group distributed offensive anti-Obama literature with stereotypical black America images of a watermelon, barbecue ribs and a bucket of fried chicken.

This weekend, the jagged front line of the election dipped south of the Mason-Dixon line, as both candidates campaigned in Virginia and North Carolina, states where George Bush barely appeared in 2000 and 2004. Senator McCain was there to energise conservatives and independents. But Mr Obama was also in North Carolina, holding enormous rallies and spending vast sums to smother his opponent with a blanket of television spots and paid-for "infomercials".

The last time North Carolina went Democratic was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter narrowly scraped by.

At Ed's Country Market, Pastor Donald McCoy finds himself sitting in front a memorial to the Civil War, complete with guns, swords and Confederate flags. He dismisses it with a wave of his hands and with his omelette growing cold on the plate, he describes his excitement at the prospect of an Obama presidency.

"I already call him President," he said, "and he is going to transform the way this country sees itself. I'm 64 now and I was around in the civil Rights period with Martin Luther King and I can tell you that he made a prophesy that we would get to the promised land and Barack Obama is that prophesy coming to pass."

"Because, just naturally, when folks see even a friend who has a strange accent or a different skin colour or round eyes, they think, 'He's not like me'. Chalk it up to original sin, but that's the way it is."

That is why Mr Wrenn thinks the Republicans will still hold North Carolina. But Virginia he sees as a lost cause, which, if Obama wins, he wins the White House

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Obama
80%
McCain
20%
Other
0%
Settled as Obama on Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:59pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:59pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama: 40%, McCain: 55%, Other: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 14th May 2008 3:26pm PST by f201
Changed Description Mon 20th Oct 2008 12:57am PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... Although North Carolina traditionallyhas votesbeen a Republican, stronghold for decades. So can Barack Obama's sweepingreally overcome the history of racial winprejudice in the primarysouthern states?<br/> <br/> The polls suggest that America will elect Barack Obama its first black president in two weeks. But the tidal wave of enthusiasm for him points to him not just winning the White House but capturing two important states of the Old Confederacy, North Carolina and Virginia.<br/> <br/> Both have reliably gone Republican during every presidential election for 40 years, and only once since 1948 has Virginia voted to put a Democrat in the highWhite AfricanHouse. On Americana populationUS suggestselectoral thatmap, these thereare the highest peaks of prejudice the Democrat is poised to overcome. The ground is now shaking under the country club Republicans as the polls give Senator Obama a margin of some 10 percentage points in Virginia and put North Carolina on a knife edge.<br/> <br/> "Obama has a chance here," he says between pulls on an early morning cigar, "but if he was Tiger Woods I would be saying that ithe mightneeds swingto finish the back nine with six birdies if he is going to take the Democraticstates."<br/> <br/> If columnthe polls are correct and the huge numbers of newly registered voters actually turn out to vote, Mr Wrenn's life's work of building an impenetrable bastion for Republicans in North Carolina could soon be swept away. A defeat here, however narrow for Senator McCain, will be a painful setback for the Republicans. If this fallstate and Virginia go Democratic, Senator Obama has won the White House. But perhaps more important will be the shattering of the Republicans' infamous "southern strategy".<br/> <br/> Sarah Palin's accusations that Senator Obama was "palling around with terrorists" brought shouts of "Terrorist" and "Kill him" from her audience. A Republican group distributed offensive anti-Obama literature with stereotypical black America images of a watermelon, barbecue ribs and a bucket of fried chicken.<br/> <br/> This weekend, the jagged front line of the election dipped south of the Mason-Dixon line, as both candidates campaigned in Virginia and North Carolina, states iswhere anGeorge importantBush partbarely appeared in 2000 and 2004. Senator McCain was there to energise conservatives and independents. But Mr Obama was also in North Carolina, holding enormous rallies and spending vast sums to smother his opponent with a blanket of television spots and paid-for "infomercials".<br/> <br/> The last time North Carolina went Democratic was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter narrowly scraped by. <br/> <br/> At Ed's Country Market, Pastor Donald McCoy finds himself sitting in front a memorial to the DemocratsCivil winWar, complete strategywith guns, willswords and Confederate flags. He dismisses it work? with a wave of his hands and with his omelette growing cold on the plate, he describes his excitement at the prospect of an Obama presidency.<br/> <br/> "I already call him President," he said, "and he is going to transform the way this country sees itself. I'm 64 now and I was around in the civil Rights period with Martin Luther King and I can tell you that he made a prophesy that we would get to the promised land and Barack Obama is that prophesy coming to pass."<br/> <br/> "Because, just naturally, when folks see even a friend who has a strange accent or a different skin colour or round eyes, they think, 'He's not like me'. Chalk it up to original sin, but that's the way it is."<br/> <br/> That is why Mr Wrenn thinks the Republicans will still hold North Carolina. But Virginia he sees as a lost cause, which, if Obama wins, he wins the White House
Changed Suspend date Sat 1st Nov 2008 4:59pm PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-05 23:59:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 2008 8:33am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 16:00:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 2008 3:15pm PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 14:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 3:17pm PST by destry[Admin]: Unsuspended until polls close
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 2008 1:06pm PST by newswrangler[Power User]: Winning prediction = "Obama"

Obama - 2,110,322 50%
McCain - 2,098,452 49%

100% precincts reporting - Updated 39 minutes ago

<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPNC>
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 2008 8:27pm PST by measure: Do NOT settle until NC makes the vote official, 11/14.

http://www.wnct.com/nct/news/politics/article/which_presidential_candidate_won_north_carolina_no_official_results_yet/22921/
Settlement requested Thu 6th Nov 2008 9:48am PST by guido: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_el_pr/president_north_carolina
Settlement requested Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:27pm PST by eliminati: It was called for Obama by NBC. It was determined there aren't enough provisional ballots for McCain to win even if he won 100% of them.
Settled as 'Obama' Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:59pm PST by destry[Admin]: Based on AP and NBC news. Two major sources.

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:59pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (538)

1 year ago
oppugner predicted McCain (H$10 at 20%)
1 year ago
binder predicted Obama (H$50 at 81%)
1 year ago
kennyk predicted McCain (H$100 at 19%)
1 year ago
kennyk predicted McCain (H$100 at 28%)
1 year ago
nikdahl predicted Obama (H$50 at 74%)

Comments (5)

huh?!
posted 1 year ago
  2 kennyk
Beats me. "Other" was at 100% a few minutes ago. My $200 is now worth about $7000! Somebody just giving hubdub bucks away???
posted 1 year ago
  3 chris[Admin]
just ironing out a bug. Things should be fine now
posted 1 year ago
  4 kennyk
Darn! Thought I was going to be wealthy! Oh well, back to being a regular guy again!
posted 1 year ago
  5 coolkraft
Barack Obama according to MSNBC news is the winner..for what that is worth...
posted 1 year ago

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