Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?
Based on AP and NBC news. Two major sources.
Background:>
The polls suggest that America will elect Barack Obama its first black president in two weeks. But the tidal wave of enthusiasm for him points to him not just winning the White House but capturing two important states of the Old Confederacy, North Carolina and Virginia.
Both have reliably gone Republican during every presidential election for 40 years, and only once since 1948 has Virginia voted to put a Democrat in the White House. On a US electoral map, these are the highest peaks of prejudice the Democrat is poised to overcome. The ground is now shaking under the country club Republicans as the polls give Senator Obama a margin of some 10 percentage points in Virginia and put North Carolina on a knife edge.
"Obama has a chance here," he says between pulls on an early morning cigar, "but if he was Tiger Woods I would be saying that he needs to finish the back nine with six birdies if he is going to take the states."
If the polls are correct and the huge numbers of newly registered voters actually turn out to vote, Mr Wrenn's life's work of building an impenetrable bastion for Republicans in North Carolina could soon be swept away. A defeat here, however narrow for Senator McCain, will be a painful setback for the Republicans. If this state and Virginia go Democratic, Senator Obama has won the White House. But perhaps more important will be the shattering of the Republicans' infamous "southern strategy".
Sarah Palin's accusations that Senator Obama was "palling around with terrorists" brought shouts of "Terrorist" and "Kill him" from her audience. A Republican group distributed offensive anti-Obama literature with stereotypical black America images of a watermelon, barbecue ribs and a bucket of fried chicken.
This weekend, the jagged front line of the election dipped south of the Mason-Dixon line, as both candidates campaigned in Virginia and North Carolina, states where George Bush barely appeared in 2000 and 2004. Senator McCain was there to energise conservatives and independents. But Mr Obama was also in North Carolina, holding enormous rallies and spending vast sums to smother his opponent with a blanket of television spots and paid-for "infomercials".
The last time North Carolina went Democratic was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter narrowly scraped by.
At Ed's Country Market, Pastor Donald McCoy finds himself sitting in front a memorial to the Civil War, complete with guns, swords and Confederate flags. He dismisses it with a wave of his hands and with his omelette growing cold on the plate, he describes his excitement at the prospect of an Obama presidency.
"I already call him President," he said, "and he is going to transform the way this country sees itself. I'm 64 now and I was around in the civil Rights period with Martin Luther King and I can tell you that he made a prophesy that we would get to the promised land and Barack Obama is that prophesy coming to pass."
"Because, just naturally, when folks see even a friend who has a strange accent or a different skin colour or round eyes, they think, 'He's not like me'. Chalk it up to original sin, but that's the way it is."
That is why Mr Wrenn thinks the Republicans will still hold North Carolina. But Virginia he sees as a lost cause, which, if Obama wins, he wins the White House
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
- Activity: H$183,982 |
- Predictions: 538 |
Comments: 5
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:59pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama: 40%, McCain: 55%, Other: 5%
Action history:
Obama - 2,110,322 50%
McCain - 2,098,452 49%
100% precincts reporting - Updated 39 minutes ago
<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPNC>
http://www.wnct.com/nct/news/politics/article/which_presidential_candidate_won_north_carolina_no_official_results_yet/22921/
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:59pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 4:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
Predictions (538)
Comments (5)
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