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Which of the "Big 3" US automakers will declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy first?

Voided

With the auto market in a slump, and Ford, GMC, and Chrysler giving away market share like it is going out of style, it is inevitable that one (or more) will declare Chapter 11. Which one will do it first?
 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

Ford Motor Company
25%
General Motors
35%
Chrysler
40%
Thu 14th Aug 4:45pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 7:59am PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Ford Motor Company: 25%, General Motors: 35%, Chrysler: 40%

Action history:

Created Thu 15th May 8:01am PDT by epr118
Voided Thu 14th Aug 4:45pm PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: This version did not give an option for none of these...a new question has been created which does allow that 4th option. http://www.hubdub.com/m13113/Which_of_the_Big_3_US_automakers_will_declare_Chapter_11_bankruptcy_first
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (16)

16 predictions

2 weeks ago
manilamaverick predicted Chrysler (H$20 at 42%)
2 weeks ago
manilamaverick predicted Ford Motor Company (H$20 at 24%)
2 weeks ago
manilamaverick predicted General Motors (H$20 at 35%)
3 weeks ago
mark0902 predicted Chrysler (H$50 at 47%)
3 weeks ago
jarrod predicted Chrysler (H$100 at 47%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 dragon01
..and if they all survive beyond suspension date?
posted 3 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Good point, there is no option for that, and the only thing that could happen after two years would be to void the question and return everyone's money...who wants to put anything in a market like that.

Of course some could wager, hoping for some movement that would allow them to cash out with a profit. Maybe the question should be posed again, with an option for none filing Chapter 11.
posted 3 weeks ago

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