Which party will have the most votes in the 2008 New Zealand election?

Suspend date: last Saturday 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 9th Nov 6:30am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: National: 50%, Labour: 43%, Green: 1%, New Zealand First: 1%, Maori: 1%, Act: 1%, United future: 1%, Destiny: 1%, Progressive: 1%

Action history:

Created Fri 16th May 10:10pm PDT by gadget666

Settlement requested Sat 8th Nov 2:09pm PST by spitvalve: The election results were in yesterday.

Settlement requested Sat 8th Nov 5:01pm PST by petefin: Election night result: National 45%, Labour 34%. Even if Labour scored all the special votes its total vote would be less than National. http://www.stuff.co.nz/sundaystartimes/?source=sundaystartimes

Settled as 'National' Sun 9th Nov 6:30am PST by infernalmachine: The National Party got 951,145 votes with Labour second at 706,666. This does not include the Special votes (approx. 240,00) which are due to be added before month's end. However, a look at the numbers shows that it is a near-impossibility for the lead to change. (Predictions cut off at 1pm Auckland time Nov 8 in keeping with other NZ election questions.)
http://2008.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

Suspend date: last Saturday 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 9th Nov 6:30am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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