Created Sat 17th May 3:15pm PDT by 
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All questions » Business » Indices » infernalmachine World markets index funds strategies (May 19-23) - which leaves you richest?
Voided
Sadly this question was flagged for containing the Mibtel index, which is not one of the permitted indices.
Background:
You start with $10,000.00. Each day (Mon-Fri) you buy into one index fund (based on the performance of that particular index) at the day's opening price, and sell at that day's closing. Next day, you invest ALL of your money in that day's index fund (according to which strategy you are following). At the end of Friday, which of the following 6 strategies will leave you with the most money?
Legend for indices:
DJ = dow, NS = nasdaq, SP = s&p 500
BS = bse sensex, NK = nikkei 225, HS = hang seng
FT = FTSE 100, DX = DAX, MB = MibTel
Each strategy is an ordered list of 5 indices. On Monday you invest in the first index, on Tuesday, the second, etc. until the fifth on Friday.
The end of day payout is calculated as the amount invested times the day's close divided by the day's open. It is rounded to the nearest cent (xxxxx.xx5000... rounds up). If a market happens to be closed on a given day, then that is equivalent to there being no change between open and close.
NO ties. If the unlikely possibility that two or more strategies are tied for best arises, then the strategy (among the best) whose Friday close/open (to 6 significant digits) is highest will win. If that produces a tie for highest, then, of these, the strategy whose "name" is earliest in the alphabet will win. Initial odds are equal, but because of the tie-breaker, I'll add 1% to the first 4 of 6 strategies.
I'll update the running totals each day in the comments, and will post a list of links to follow the 9 market indices. The question suspends at 10am (EST) Friday, which is after Asian markets are closed, an hour or two before the European markets close, and just after the US markets open.
Legend for indices:
DJ = dow, NS = nasdaq, SP = s&p 500
BS = bse sensex, NK = nikkei 225, HS = hang seng
FT = FTSE 100, DX = DAX, MB = MibTel
Each strategy is an ordered list of 5 indices. On Monday you invest in the first index, on Tuesday, the second, etc. until the fifth on Friday.
The end of day payout is calculated as the amount invested times the day's close divided by the day's open. It is rounded to the nearest cent (xxxxx.xx5000... rounds up). If a market happens to be closed on a given day, then that is equivalent to there being no change between open and close.
NO ties. If the unlikely possibility that two or more strategies are tied for best arises, then the strategy (among the best) whose Friday close/open (to 6 significant digits) is highest will win. If that produces a tie for highest, then, of these, the strategy whose "name" is earliest in the alphabet will win. Initial odds are equal, but because of the tie-breaker, I'll add 1% to the first 4 of 6 strategies.
I'll update the running totals each day in the comments, and will post a list of links to follow the 9 market indices. The question suspends at 10am (EST) Friday, which is after Asian markets are closed, an hour or two before the European markets close, and just after the US markets open.
Settlement details:
As calculated based on the open/close figures for the pertinent markets from http://finance.yahoo.com
given the rules as stated in background text.
Voided
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a) DJ, HS, FT, NS, DJ |
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b) BS, DX, SP, NK, MB |
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c) FT, SP, HS, BS, NS |
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d) NS, MB, NK, DX, FT |
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e) NK, DJ, DX, NK, SP |
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f) MB, NS, BS, DJ, HS |
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Voided Wed 21st May 4:57am PDT
Suspend date: Fri 23rd May 8am PDT
Initial likelihoods: a) DJ, HS, FT, NS, DJ: 17%, b) BS, DX, SP, NK, MB: 17%, c) FT, SP, HS, BS, NS: 17%, d) NS, MB, NK, DX, FT: 17%, e) NK, DJ, DX, NK, SP: 16%, f) MB, NS, BS, DJ, HS: 16%
Action history:
Created Sat 17th May 3:15pm PDT by infernalmachine
infernalmachine
Voided Wed 21st May 4:57am PDT by 
andrew: Sadly this question was flagged for containing the Mibtel index, which is not one of the permitted indices.
andrew: Sadly this question was flagged for containing the Mibtel index, which is not one of the permitted indices.
Suspend date: Fri 23rd May 8am PDT
more info...
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predicted a) DJ, HS, FT, NS, DJ (H$100 at 17%)
mrperfktComments (12)
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infernalmachine
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Maybe there is one problem though: You say a certain amount of hypothetical money should be invested. That amount is in USD, I assume. Is this amount transferred to local currency and back for non-US markets? See, the DAX could gain a certain percentage, but the EUR could loose against USD, so the DAX gain would be lesser than US-Indexes after applying conversion rates.
Sorry, just asking.
DJ http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI
NS http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EIXIC
SP http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EGSPC
BS http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EBSESN
NK http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EN225
HS http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EHSI
FT http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EFTSE
DX http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EGDAXI
MB http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EMIBTEL
For past prices on each index, follow the "Historical Prices" link.
and #2 what kruijs said
Good point. But in this case it's hypothetical index funds which pay out based on the close vs open. The investor is effectively sheltered from currency exchange shifts. The fund seller (in some country with dollars, not necessarily the US) offers the financial product locally, and handles all transactions itself.
a) $10,000.00 (Dow Jones on Mon. 19)
b) $10,000.00 (BSE on Mon. 19)
c) $10,000.00 (FTSE on Mon. 19)
d) $10,000.00 (NASDAQ on Mon. 19)
e) $10,000.00 (Nikkei on Mon. 19)
f) $10,000.00 (MibTel on Mon. 19)
Then on Monday you have $10000.00 * 1.01 = $10100.00
Tues you have $10100.00 * 0.975 = $9847.50
Wed: $9847.50 * 1.02 = $10,044.45
Thurs: $10,044.45 * 1.016 = $10,205.16 (rounded to nearest cent)
Fri: $10,205.16 * 0.98769 = $10,079.53 (rounded off)
Now if none of the other strategies produces more than $10,079.53 on Friday, then c) would win.
Clearly you are looking for a strategy that gains each and every day. Also, it makes sense to be cautious at first, until you see how the early days of each strategy turn out, and get a sense of how the later week may go. Alternatively, you might simply guess on Sunday which of the 6 markets for Monday does best, and pick the strategy that has that one on Monday, because its value will likely go up (and you can cash out at a profit if you don't like its market for Tuesday).
let me put it this way: when something like this is able to be predicted, then there are certain likelihoods for the outcomes (or they can be determined or calculated).
If you cannot tell me which likelihood a specific outcome has, that just shows that it is impossible to predict. If you cannot predict, its gambling (or "lottery").
this is just mho. I don't want the question to be voided, just let you know, what I feel.
Today's markets
a) Dow Jones open:12,985.41 close:13,028.16
b) BSE closed for holiday
c) FTSE open:6304.30 close:6376.50
d) NASDAQ open:2530.82 close:2516.09
e) Nikkei open:14,294.52 close:14,269.61
f) MibTel open:25,783.00 close:25917.00
Strategy Value = Past Value * (market close / market open) [and next day's market]
a) $10,032.92 = $10,000.00 * (13028.16 / 12985.41) [Hang Seng on Tues. 20]
b) $10,000.00 = $10,000.00 * 1 [DAX on Tues. 20]
c) $10,114.53 = $10,000.00 * (6376.50 / 6304.30) [S&P 500 on Tues. 20]
d) $9941.80 = $10,000.00 * (2516.09 / 2530.82) [MibTel on Tues. 20]
e) $9982.57 = $10,000.00 * (14269.61 / 14294.52) [Dow Jones on Tues. 20]
f) $10,051.97 = $10,000.00 * (25917.00 / 25783.00) [NASDAQ on Tues. 20]
Today's markets
a) Hang Seng open:25,692.27 close:25,169.46
b) DAX open:7188.07 close:7118.50
c) S&P 500 open:1424.49 close:1413.40
d) MibTel open:25,790.00 close:25,502.00
e) Dow Jones open:13,026.04 close:12,828.68
f) NASDAQ open:2505.86 close:2492.26
Strategy Value = Past Value * (market close / market open) [and next day's market]
a) $9828.76 = $10,032.92 * (25169.46 / 25692.27) [FTSE on Wed. 21]
b) $9903.21 = $10,000.00 * (7118.50 / 7188.07) [S&P 500 on Wed. 21]
c) $10,035.79 = $10,114.53 * (1413.40 / 1424.49) [Hang Seng on Wed. 21]
d) $9830.78 = $9941.80 * (25502.00 / 25790.00) [Nikkei on Wed. 21]
e) $9831.32 = $9982.57 * (12828.68 / 13026.04) [DAX on Wed. 21]
f) $9997.42 = $10,051.97 * (2492.26 / 2505.86) [BSE on Wed. 21]
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/unfairly_voided_question#reply_502166
this question should be voided.
If you have strong feelings about any of this, please join the discussion at the link in comment #11
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