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Created Sat 17th May 5:02pm PDT by inessa21
All questions » General » Tragedy » 

Will the official death toll of the May 12th Chinese Earthquake exceed 35,000?

Settled as Yes

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWRI74404620080520

Background:

As of May 17th the death toll is approx, 29,000. Will the death toll exceed 35,000 people?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Yes
99%
No
1%
Activity: H$86,875
Settled as Yes on Wed 21st May 1:01am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 23rd May 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 21st May 1:01am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 2pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 17th May 5:02pm PDT by inessa21
Settlement requested Tue 20th May 9:20am PDT by orlin: Yes.

'A government statement said the number killed had now topped 40,000'

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWRI74404620080520
Settlement requested Tue 20th May 11:37pm PDT by randburg: The death toll sadly has already been exceeded and settlement requested quite some time ago. Why is there a delay in settlement?
Settled as 'Yes' Wed 21st May 1:01am PDT by diana: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWRI74404620080520

Suspend date: Fri 23rd May 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 21st May 1:01am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 2pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (52)

52 predictions

26 weeks ago
vittal predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
26 weeks ago
gideonlorain predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
26 weeks ago
ksleher predicted No (H$20 at 1%)
26 weeks ago
juddthestud predicted Yes (H$100 at 99%)
26 weeks ago
opie predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 epicur
By when, the suspend date? Or weeks / months from now when they issue a somewhat final figure?
posted 26 weeks ago
  2 inessa21
this is for the official death toll meaning if the final death toll exceeds 35,000. I set the early suspend date so as not to have late betting on this question.
posted 26 weeks ago
  3 randburg
Here is the latest update:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-05/20/content_8213763.htm
posted 26 weeks ago
  4 randburg
The death toll sadly has already been exceeded and settlement requested quite some time ago. Why is there a delay in settlement?
posted 26 weeks ago

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