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Will anyone find NASA's 9 yr missing Mars Polar Lander this year?

Hubdub users say: No (92% chance )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 92% (unchanged in last 1 day)

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/16/1033276.aspx...The folks behind NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have put out pictures of the area where the Mars Polar Lander disappeared nine years ago - and are inviting people to see if they can find it...Back in 2005, the pros thought they saw signs of the lander in lower-resolution imagery, but they retracted the claim months later. So far, MRO has not turned up a smoking gun, or a smoking crater. Nevertheless, it's continuing the search...Mars Polar Lander was due to reach the Red Planet's south polar region in 1999, but it went out of contact during its descent from the surface and was never heard from again. Investigators surmised that a glitch with the spacecraft's thruster system led to a catastrophically hard landing...Coming after the failure of NASA's Mars Climate Orbiter, the lander's loss forced a makeover of NASA's Mars exploration program. Several missions had to be shifted around. In fact, Phoenix Mars Lander, which is due to set down in Mars' north polar region on May 25, is a retooled incarnation of a 2001 lander that was put on hold. The instruments on board are upgraded versions of Mars Polar Lander's hardware.

 
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Yes
8%
No
92%
Activity: H$1,013
Question suspends in 18 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 7:59am PST (18 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 17th May 9:12pm PDT by valornhonor
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
2 weeks ago
mjackson33 predicted No (H$100)
4 weeks ago
pezman predicted Yes (H$20)
6 weeks ago
maureen predicted No (H$20)
9 weeks ago
myunion predicted No (H$50)
9 weeks ago
captainron predicted Yes (H$250)
9 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100)
9 weeks ago
johnd predicted Yes (H$50)
9 weeks ago
johnd predicted Yes (H$200)
  1 mork[Power User]
shortly after google mars comes online.
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 myunion
Burnt up on entry.
its a mater of using inches or meters, and letting the rest of the people know which one your using. :)
posted 9 weeks ago

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