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Will the 3 parties after Rep. & Dem. get on average greater than 215 votes per county?

Hubdub users say: Yes (56% chance )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Yes with a probability of 56% (unchanged in last 1 day)

In 2004, the three parties that received the most Presidential votes, other than the Republican candidate Bush and Democratic candidate Kerry, were Libertarian 397,265, Constitution 143,630 & Green @ 119,859 for a total of 660,754 votes...There are 3,077 counties in the United States, including what Alaska calls boroughs and Louisiana calls parishes, 660,754 / 3,077 = 214.7 votes per county that went to one of these Top Three "Other" candidates...This prediction is looking to calculate whether the ratio of votes/county in the 2008 Presidential election will be greater than the ratio in 2004. *THIS MARKET REGARDS THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION*
 
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Yes
56%
No
44%
Activity: H$12,015
Question suspends in 15 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (15 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 18th May 7:47am PDT by valornhonor
Clarified Mon 19th May 3:06am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: I've edited the market to make the question easier to understand for users.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
21 hours ago
No user imagebobdevine predicted Yes (H$20)
1 day ago
bayoubear predicted No (H$300)
1 day ago
No user imageonedave predicted No (H$20)
1 day ago
theonecalledmichael predicted Yes (H$1,000)
1 day ago
No user imageyonemoto predicted Yes (H$1,000)
5 days ago
valornhonor predicted Yes (H$250)
1 week ago
valornhonor predicted Yes (H$2,500)
8 weeks ago
No user imageepicur predicted Yes (H$110)
8 weeks ago
valornhonor predicted Yes (H$100)
8 weeks ago
No user imagejarvis predicted Yes (H$100)
  1 No user imagechuck
My head just exploded. Did you submit this question on your cell phone, valornhonor?
posted 8 weeks ago
@ chuck Nope, just trying to stay inside the 90 char threshold. Hope your head gets to feeling better.
posted 8 weeks ago
  3 No user imagechuck
valornhonor:

Thank you for your concern about my head. I'm getting all of the little pieces out of my keyboard now. I wasn't aware of the limit. I think it's a great question, but you could have asked it in a much more courteous way. Though I do think 90 is a bit low.
posted 8 weeks ago
  4 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

I've tweaked the market text a bit as it was very confusing and complex. Hopefully the edit should make the market easier to understand.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 8 weeks ago
Wow, the Libertarians got more than 60% of the 3rd party vote .. who would have predicted that? Or even been aware of it after the fact? We need a multi-party (as opposed to two-party) system here in the US ... I can't tell you how many of my friends and colleagues are dissatisfied with both of the "major" political parties. During the Bush years I've said, "We have a choice between 'tax-and-spend' Democrats, and 'tax-cut-and-spend' Republicans", but I don't think that will be the case after any of the 'cap-and-trade' global warming believers (global temperatures have been decreasing since 1998), and 'universal health care' candidates are elected.

It's certain to be tax and spend. I'll vote for McCain in the hope that his SCOTUS nominations will be better than the Democrats ... but living in a majority blue East Coast state it won't matter for whom I vote. I shouldn't have to vote, I should be "the decider". 8^)
posted 7 weeks ago

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