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How many summits of Mount Everest will mountaineers achieve in Spring 2008?

Settled as 220 or more

In early May, 2008, Nepal and China closed Mount Everest to allow a team of 19 mountaineers to summit with the olympic torch. After the team summited on May 9, Nepal allowed mountaineers to leave base camp. The first summit attempts are expected on May 20 (<a href='<a href='http://www.mounteverest.net/news.php?id=17268'>http://www.mounteverest.net/news.php?id=17268<;/a>'><a href='http://www.mounteverest.net/news.php?id=17268<;'>http://www.mounteverest.net/news.php?id=17268<;</a>;/a>). 290 climbers have received permits from the Nepalese government (<a href='<a href='http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24534542/from/ET/'>http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24534542/from/ET/<;/a>'><a href='http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24534542/from/ET/<;'>http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24534542/from/ET/<;</a>;/a>). It is not known if the Chinese government will open their side of the mountain.
 
% chance over time
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Settled

At least 180, but less than 220
9%
At least 150, but less than 180
17%
At least 125, but less than 150
24%
At least 75, but less than 125
22%
At least 20, but less than 75
12%
19
1%
220 or more
14%
Activity: H$12,907
Settled as 220 or more on Sun 15th Jun 10:52am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source or by www.everestnews.com.

Suspend date: Sat 21st Jun 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Sun 15th Jun 10:52am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 10th Jun 6:05pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: At least 180, but less than 220: 10%, At least 150, but less than 180: 19%, At least 125, but less than 150: 24%, At least 75, but less than 125: 30%, At least 20, but less than 75: 14%, 19: 2%, 220 or more: 1%

Action history:

Created Sun 18th May 11:51am PDT by No user imageonedave
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 3:02pm PDT by No user imageonedave: www.everestnews.com lists 290 summits
Settlement requested Sat 14th Jun 5:14pm PDT by No user imageonedave: Please settle as 220 or more. This article (at the bottom) lists 344 summits of Everest during the season. http://www.mounteverest.net/news.php?id=17335
Settled as '220 or more' Sun 15th Jun 10:52am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://www.mounteverest.net/news.php?id=17335
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source or by www.everestnews.com.... read all

 
5 weeks ago
swilson predicted 220 or more (H$1,500)
5 weeks ago
swilson predicted 220 or more (H$500)
5 weeks ago
smidge76 predicted At least 20, but less than 75 (H$100)
6 weeks ago
swilson predicted At least 125, but less than 150 (H$100)
6 weeks ago
swilson predicted At least 75, but less than 125 (H$100)
6 weeks ago
No user imagerhoan74 predicted At least 150, but less than 180 (H$20)
8 weeks ago
No user imagerbooth predicted At least 150, but less than 180 (H$50)
8 weeks ago
phoneman10 predicted At least 75, but less than 125 (H$20)
8 weeks ago
phoneman10 predicted At least 125, but less than 150 (H$100)
8 weeks ago
phoneman10 predicted At least 150, but less than 180 (H$100)

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