Predictify v Pikum v Hubdub: Who will be top at the end of May?

these are all prediction sites?
HUBDUB is OBVIOUSLY better :D

If you don't vote Hubdub your not a true patriot!!!

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Thanks Nigel for sharing this with us! I think it brings us into some perspective and answers a few questions...also very educational to visit the other churches and see what they are preaching...

As I read the graphs, hubdub is the only one of the three that appears to be in an upward trend in mid May. Predictify obviously has a head start, and it might take a couple more months of activity for hubdub to pass predictify.

On the outside front, more press publicity is needed to continuously generate new interest. Never rest on laurels and presume that you have enough publicity. MORE IS BETTER. At home, we need to continue to work to "tighten the ship" in ways that we already know about, many of which are already in the works...

One thing I have never understood: many people don't want to put their hubdub money where their big mouths are! This obviously does NOT refer to anyone reading this: it refers to at least four friends that I have tried to get interested in hubdub. They are very vocal about beliefs and political viewpoints. Two tried hubdub and quit; the other two didn't bother. I wonder what the common characteristics are of those of us who enjoy hubdub so much...? Maybe I was overly enthusiastic. Maybe hubdub is something that you need to find yourself and get hooked on all by yourself...sort of like finding religion...

@randburg

That is really interesting. One of the reasons we opted for play money over real money is that most people aren't comfortable with gambling (that reason and also we didn't want to go to jail!). With play money we could then challenge people by saying "Well if you are so confident, why not place your prediction on record?". The people who will have the most to lose are the professional pundits. We actually have something in development which will track some of the top pundits in politics, entertainment, business and technology. It should be released in the next couple of weeks.

@randburg

On tightening the ship. I totally agree. We've come a long way in three months (I remember when Get Satisfaction seemed more active than Hubdub) but there is still a lot we need to work on.

With regard to comment 5:

New homeowners are invariably frustrated, because they believe they will have the new house exactly the way they want it within a few months. As long as you own it, a home is never done, perpetually a "work in progress"...and that is fine, as long as you understand what is happening...

The same can be said for hubdub: if it is successful, it will always be a "work in progress", evolving and adapting to competition, new ideas, and the latest innovations in technology. Sitting on laurels can involve both certain death and sudden death -- neither of which is desirable after many months of hard work.

With regard to comment 4: "Well if you are so confident, why not place your prediction on record?"

I think you found the essence of the problem, and why I was unsuccessful with four of my friends:

(1) BAGS OF HOT AIR are often reluctant to put their predictions on record. Separates the men from the boys, doesn't it? (That dispatched two of them and tells you more about them).

(2) The other two are very conservative and don't want to be on record "in case Big Brother is watching". They are hypersensitive and they are not alone. While your announcement about methods of tracking successful pundits is scientifically interesting, Big Brother is indeed watching...But science in general -- and prediction markets specifically -- are dedicated to recording and analyzing data...

As different as each of us are on hubdub, I think a hubdubber profile is coming out of this: we are mostly willing to evolve, not afraid to stand by our opinions or have them documented, enjoy participating in research, new ideas, and experiments, and like having the little gray cells challenged.

(...but I don't like, or participate in, opinion polls...)

Hi everyone - I'm Sean, one of Pikum's founders... For those of you haven't taken a look at Pikum, I'd welcome you to sign up and give it a shot...

@nigeleccles - as someone who's actually used PIkum Nigel, I'm surprised that you would even put us in this comparison - although people who might like HubDub or Predictify might also like PIkum, we're very different from you and Predictify...

1. We're not a prediction market like HubDub or Predicitfy
2. We don't use a market mechanism, we use a system where you get points for being close to right and closer to right than other players
3. We let people play for a fun currency or for real money (we're a licensed gambling operator - neither you nor predictify are)
4. Hubdub and Predictify are about 1 prediction at a time with a market mechanism - Pikum's can include 1->infinite prediction items and are played as a game versus other players - and don't have a trading mechanism.

Anyways - I do appreciate the inclusion and hope many of you will check Pikum out. If you'd checked us out before today, we had a £2 entry into a pool of more than £1,000... we'll be offering more special events like that in the future.

@seanglass

Glad to see you drop by. To be honest, I created this market to test out embedding the Alexa widget and I also thought it would be a bit of fun to include companies in a similar space that had a similar Alexa ranking. I agree that Hubdub and Pikum are very different.

See you at the end of May - in our rear view mirror! :-)

@seanglass

Was that RACKET a paid political advertisement for Barack or Hillary??....Or was that just John McCain scampering past to the finish line??

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speaking of "finish": The EX-hubdubspellchecksupervisor will never forget how to spell "finish" again...

A story on me: Many years ago I put a notice on our bulletin board asking my teachers "to please finnish grading the papers and have them on my desk at the beginning of the third period"...And some wiseacre jotted in above my mistake "DANISH, maybe?"

At close inspection it appears that we may be in the process of spiking.

@Ryan:
H$1000 on us... can you let us know who the traitors are?

BTW I've decided to exclude myself from predicting on this one.

"Did Alexa Die and No One Notice?"
'The Amazon owned web statistics service Alexa hasn’t been updated for 8 days with no comment from the company. The last date Alexa is showing (at the time of writing) is May 19, with the service usually being two days behind the current date.'
http://www.inquisitr.com/did-alexa-die-and-no-one-notice

Note we will settle this market on the results shown for May 31st even if we have to wait a couple of weeks for it. If Alexa is really dead then we will have to void the market (I think it is unlikely that they are dead)

Oh one other thing to watch with Alexa is they sometimes show sharp drops/spikes on the last day recorded. This subsequently gets corrected when it is updated. One to watch. Also if you want to use a tool bar to track Alexa rankings I would recommend http://www.quirk.biz/searchstatus/. It only works for Firefox but is a really light plug-in which gives lots of info. I wouldn't recommend the Alexa toolbar, it is bloated with stuff you won't want/need.

Thank you for creating this question Nigel.
It has introduced me to web traffic monitoring, and the data is interesting.
I respect how you have shared this with us even though it meant introducing us to the competition.
This demonstration of yours has only strengthened my loyalty to hubdub.

I agree, I had never heard of the other 2 and after a quick browse, I will stick with hubdub.

Very nice. Hubdub rules :>

Im Sorry But This Is wrong.

Predictify was ahead at the END of May Not Near the end.

@pizarrokid -- it does look like Predictify was ahead. (squinting at graph)
I'd suggest you send a message about it via the "Contact" link at the bottom of this page.

I took a snap at settlement -- I'd be happy to show the picture to anyone who wants to see it. (jenniandboys@gmail.com)

It clearly shows hubdub ahead ON May 31 (albeit not by very much).

I've noticed this a couple of times before where Alexa adjusts their numbers at a later date (please someone build a better daily visitor tracking service!). We settled this on the first set of data available which showed Hubdub ahead (as noted by Jenni). I am undecided about whether we should re-settle. In entertainment we re-settle if the winner is subsequently changed however for earthquakes we settle on preliminary data.

I guess it might depend if Hubdub is entertaining, or if it's earth-shattering that Hubdub came in second in the revised data.

;-)

For movies, weekend grosses are released on Monday nights. So if a question is settled incorrectly based on estimates, we can resettle on Monday night when the actuals come in.

The problem with the earthquake question (and I believe this one) is that there's no way to know when the "new" or "updated" data is finished coming in. How do we know this is the final version of the data? Maybe next week Hubdub will be in the lead again! Until we know of some cutoff date for the data, where it is no longer modified, I think this should work off of the earthquake precedent.

This was not a natural disaster. Lmao

hmmm ... Nigel said, "I've noticed this a couple of times before where Alexa adjusts their numbers at a later date..."

Maybe Nigel knows what the time frames have been for updated data in these past instances ... that could establish guidelines for the Alexa markets.

As it is, there are other specific rules relative to using websites to settle markets, based on the information changing, etc.

To arbitrarily assign rules for one category to another may be misguided.

(I don't understand, BTW, why movie markets aren't settled on actuals, rather than estimates. IMNHO anything that can be done to avoid having to resettle a market ought be done. If that means waiting 24 hours, than I'd cheer lead to wait ... sort of like using the Nielson overnights to settle a TV viewer-ship question, vs. waiting for the actuals that come in later in the afternoon.)

[Disclosure: I had no predictions in this market.]

From my experience Alexa doesn't modify data more than 7 days previous so I think we are safe to re-settle as Predictify. As a side note, I have a new niece (2 weeks old) called Alexa. It is a lovely name but I am struggling with making the adjustment from thinking Alexa = wonky web analytics tool to Alexa = baby niece!