Zimbabwe election, assassination plots, candidate "buried." Which will occur first?

My guess IMHO is that the status quo will remain on June 30th. Tsvangirai is safe in South Africa and might not be home for years...Since Tsvangirai is not in Zimbabwe, there might not even be a fake runoff...And there is no chance of an American invasion to remove a dictator BECAUSE THERE IS NO OIL...Funny thing about that...

This just in..."W" is informed of possible Weapons of Mass Destruction in Zimbabwe! lol

Good point, randburg!

LMAO! -- Weapons of Mass Destruction, indeed....Enjoyed that one!

Homeland Security has dogs that can sniff explosives and other goodies at fifty feet...Washington has Dogs of War that can sniff oil thousands of miles away...Gives "W" a boner every time...

dude, there is NO way that the election results will be known 3 days after the election, it took weeks for the last one to get the official results out.

Wow! Tsvangirai is back...I hear that he is at the local popemobile agency picking his favorite color off the lot...Then there is the fitting for an Inspector Clouseau suit of armor...and then he is looking for a copy of Mrs. Bhutto's latest autobiography, the one that she wrote from the Pearly Gates...?

Wait a minute -- There goes that Zebra again....

I am disgusted:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,365781,00.html

Wow.
I hadn't seen that - have been out of the country for 2 weeks and am now trying to catch up.
Thanks for sharing, Jenni.
Might get interesting. I saw this today...
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL1264166720080614

horrific news reports from a sad country -- a beautiful country and people savaged by a dictator, with no end in sight...

of course, kaer_fyzarc is correct that it will take days to count the votes, even if Mugabe wins outright...both parties will probably claim victory, and the resulting mess will have to be sorted...again...and Mugabe will remain in power...

It is almost impossible for westerners to imagine what terror awaits at the polls for voters, that are willing to risk voting...voting can cost you your life or the life of a loved one...David Owen (British) and Andrew Young (American) did NOT succeed in installing democracy and "free and democratic voting" in the former Rhodesia, now called Zimbabwe...

From the history at the top of this page:

"For settlement purposes, which event will occur first? Note - suspend date is set for June 30th (3 days after the scheduled election). If the outcome comes down to the election, and the results are not known by that time (due to postponed election, controversy with election, etc), then the question would be settled as "other."

This market was reopened 20 minutes ago.

Lesley wrote in the Settlement Details, "Question should stay open because other outcomes could still happen before June 30th. e.g. assassination attempt."

other, really?

I would have thought that Tsvangirai's pulling out of the election would be interpreted as "other" occuring first. Also, as randburg pointed out and as explained in for settlement - "If the outcome comes down to the election, and the results are not known by that time (due to postponed election, controversy with election, etc), then the question would be settled as "other."

The US and others have already announced that they will not recognise the outcome of the election, should Mugabe win. Not sure how that factors in to settlement, but I hope that it does not just come down to Mugabe declaring himself the winner.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7472565.stm

So, if Mugabe wins the election, but most of the world considers the election eligitimate, does this settle as yes?

While I certainly couldn't have known how this would play out when the question was created, I would have thought that one candidate pulling out of the election and the outcome being considered "illegitimate" as "other" - although the direction of wagering over the past week has shifted dramatically from other to mugabe wins (I hope that isn't a factor in determinging settlement). That's just my opinion and this wouldn't be the first question that I lost H$ on due to different interpretations of the settlement details.

It does look like poll results are expected to be released this weekend (which was another factor in the "other" details).

"...the poll was widely dismissed as illegitimate."
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2656310820080628

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/28/zimbabwe.vote/index.html

ditto mrperfkt...

Robert Mugabe is expected to be sworn in as Zimbabwe's president on Sunday, following his victory in an election boycotted by the opposition candidate.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7479320.stm (market suspended)

Urgh. This is proving a tricky one to settle. And I'm not rushing into anything...

I'm in discussion with Super Users and the question creator and I'll either settle or void it as soon as possible.

Lesley.

Lesly.
I really appreciate you asking for my input prior to settling.
I have to admit that I have strong opinions about this one and thought it would have settled once Tsvangirai dropped out...making the election unfair and illegitimate (as noted in most news articles). I am also trying to be open minded and see that Mugabe did win the election, whether fair or not (of course the circumstances could not have been known nor included in the creation of the question.

That's probably not a lot of help, but I'm biased on this one...

oops...spelling...Lesley. Sorry!

Tsvangirarai has dropped out several times before the question was posted. Read the 5 outcomes and choose one. If that is too hard to settle then wait 3 days, reread 5 outcomes and choose one. This is Zimbabwe people. If it would have been a Western country maybe this would have fallen into the "other" bracket. The election was not going to fair or legitimate. It was a run off tie breaker election in a 29 year dictatorship.

A run off tie breaker with one person in the run off. Nice tie breaker.

Well, at least for now, settlement can be delayed...poll results are now reported to be delayed...

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2850696820080628

@mrperfkt

"If the outcome comes down to the election, and the results are not known by that time (due to postponed election, controversy with election, etc), then the question would be settled as "other."

The problem here is that the stuff in brackets is only there to qualify " the results are not known by that time", not as reasons in themselves for settling as "other". Only if "controversy with election" causes the results to be unknown by June 30th can it trigger the settlement as "Other...." Importantly, given the situation in Zimbabwe, the initial odds for "Other" should have been much higher, if controversy alone was a cause for settling as "Other".

But what I want to know is, what if there's an assassination attempt between the election and the announcement of results? Does winning happen when the polls close or when the results are announced?

Maybe Jimmy Carter and Nelson Mandela will come an straighten this out.. The votes that were intentionally damaged will be returned to to voter who sabatoushed it, Beating and pain, The voters with no ink tipped on the little finger will be brought in to vote,bb It all will go back to normal.

Only a stronger evil can change anything, THE UN will do nothin.

It is a landlocked country that used to be the breadbasket of Afrika. Now the make nothing and have nothing.

They will put a wall around it and let them rum free. Finish the vote and let them be.

@infernalmachine - what you said about the brackets and starting odds of other makes sense. Based on the wording and structure of the question, I suppose I will have to concede this one...as much as I dislike "losing." :)

Unless someone wants to pipe in with a better argument (or confuse this even more with an assassination attempt), then it looks as if Mugabe will be sworn in today...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/29/zimbabwe.sunday/index.html

http://www.sabcnews.com/africa/southern_africa/0,2172,172360,00.html

The South African Broadcasting Company.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL2904413620080629 Reuters
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/29/zimbabwe.sunday/index.html?eref=rss_world CNN
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7479853.stm BBC
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2008-06-24-dna-dog_N.htm USA Today

REUTERS Mon June 30, 2008

By Opheera McDoom

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt (Reuters) - African leaders on Monday pushed President Robert Mugabe to open talks with the opposition after he was re-elected unopposed in an election condemned as violent and unfair by the continent's own monitors.

Mugabe, 84, flew to an African Union summit in Egypt soon after being sworn in for a new term, extending his unbroken rule since independence from Britain in 1980.

As Mugabe arrived, the African Union's own monitors said Friday's election did not meet their standards. They were the third African observer group to condemn the poll.

The summit was opposed to Western demands for hefty sanctions to punish Mugabe but was moving towards a clear consensus on negotiations to end a deep and violent crisis in the ruined country.

Regional power South Africa, a key player in the Zimbabwe situation, called for Mugabe's ZANU-PF and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC to enter talks on a transitional government. Tsvangirai withdrew from the ballot because of attacks on his supporters.

Pretoria is the designated southern African mediator in Zimbabwe although President Thabo Mbeki has been widely accused of being ineffective and too soft on Mugabe.

The statement was the first time South Africa has publicly called for a unity government and appeared to indicate the line that the African Union will take. Any stronger measures are likely to be blocked by divisions at the summit.

Zimbabwe's crisis has ruined a once prosperous country, saddling it with the world's worst hyper-inflation and straining neighboring nations, especially South Africa, with a flood of millions of economic

This should close the deal.

AU chair congratulates Mugabe on election victory

http://www.sabcnews.com/africa/southern_africa/0,2172,172413,00.html

http://www.newsweek.com/id/143957

I have the feeling that hubdub has promoted this sham election with a matching sham market... :(